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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: Biden Electability

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

The data continue to suggest Biden is a stronger candidate against Trump than Sanders. Below are some data from G. Elliott Morris, who does political data for the Economist, and from Alan Abramowitz.

They clearly show Biden is better overall and in swing states against Trump than Sanders. If the election is not close and favors the Democrats, perhaps either of these candidates could win. But if it’s close, Biden’s superior appeal could mean the difference between victory for the Democrats and defeat.

Therefore, we come back to the point I made yesterday: the Sanders electability case rests entirely on the assumption that his candidacy will send turnout through the roof, while Biden would leave many voters sitting on their hands. That Sanders’ turnout bonus would supposedly make up for any differences in candidate appeal we see in the data right now.

Tomorrow I will examine the plausibility of this assertion in light of data from 2016, 2018 and recent polls.

3 comments on “Teixeira: Biden Electability

  1. Gary Wolfe on

    I don’t know why you’re so hyped up on Biden. Using your logic, Hillary should have won but she didn’t. It’s time to try a new tack.

    Reply
    • Victor on

      The issue is that Biden’s record hasn’t actually been scrutinized and specially it hasn’t been contrasted against Trump’s populism.

      Reply
    • John on

      A key difference from Hillary is that is that voters find Biden far more likeable than tge did Clinton. Moreover, voters who view both Biden and Trump unfavorably break decisively for Biden. That was not rhe case in 2016.

      Reply

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