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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: Trump Cheered at His Rally, the Rest of Florida–Not So Much

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

With Trump kicking off his re-election campaign with a boffo rally in Orlando, FL, it’s a good time to check in on how the Prez is doing in the Sunshine State. Felicitously, Quinnipiac has just released a new Florida poll that allows us to assess this.

According to the poll, Trump is doing rather poorly. In a matchup with possible Democratic nominee Joe Biden, he is behind by 9 points, 50-41. Lest this be deemed too much of an outlier, Trump was behind by a similar margin in Florida in the leaked Trump campaign polls (which he claims don’t exist; maybe he’ll claim Quinnipiac doesn’t exist either).

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The internals of the poll are of considerable interest. Comparing the Quinnnipiac results with the States of Change results from 2016, Biden runs somewhat ahead of Clinton among Hispanics, but what really drives Biden’s current showing against Trump is superior performance among Florida whites. Here are the comparisons:

All whites: Clinton, -22; Biden, -10
College whites: Clinton, -7; Biden, -1
Noncollege whites: Clinton, -30; Biden, -19

Given that whites will probably be close to two-thirds of Florida voters in 2020 and that noncollege whites will probably be about two-thirds of white voters, these are impressive results of potentially great significance.

Will these results hold? Who knows, but it seems like a sure bet that Trump will be holding many more rallies in Florida.


One comment on “Teixeira: Trump Cheered at His Rally, the Rest of Florida–Not So Much

  1. Victor on

    I would be careful about these predictions. Republicans did manage to win both the Senate seat and the Governor’s office.

    Key Hispanic populations in Florida are not as pro-Democrat as people assume.


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