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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Democracy Corps: All Candidates Gained Favorability

 

Democracy Corps First Debate stats

The first night Democratic Debate had a big audience and raised the favorability of all 10 participants. It was strongest for Elizabeth Warren, but also grew significantly for Corey Booker, Julian Castro, and Amy Klobuchar, raising for four all four candidates to at or above 60% favorability. The first debate also raised interesting dynamics for Vice President Joe Biden.

Voters thought Warren won the debate (44 percent), followed by Booker (18 percent) and Castro (9 percent). Booker grew his vote share more, up to 10 percent, but it came mostly among African Americans and at the expense of Biden. Castro grew his vote share among Latinos, also at the expense of Biden. So, minority candidates could erode Biden’s base. But critically, Biden gained with white working class women even though he was not on the stage. His working class appeal may come into play among this demographic.

We asked the panel participants which candidates would they consider after their initial vote. Again, we see the victors:

  • Warren: 45 percent (vote and consider) before the debate and 62 percent after the debate; gained 17 points.
  • Booker: up from 20 to 31 percent; gained 11 points.
  • Castro: up from 2 to 23 percent; gained 21 points
  • O’Rourke: up form 11 to 14 percent; gained 3 points
  • Klobuchar: up from 6 to 14 percent; gained 8 points

This was a debate where voters said their most important issues were health care and drug costs, climate change, and getting immigration under control.

Democrats showed a lot of strength with the Rising American Electorate, African Americans and Hispanics, and particularly unmarried women. It is making in-roads into white working class women too.

One comment on “Democracy Corps: All Candidates Gained Favorability

  1. Laurie Jean Sullivan on

    We would like you to notice that Biden worked with Obama for 8 years. Several people at that black caucus meeting yesterday admitted Biden is not prejudiced. They are definitely saying he is from a different era. But I look at the demographics that he will appeal to. The rust belt those from Pennsylvania and those other white voters that voted for trump because he promised them so much and hasn’t delivered.

    Reply

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