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Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: Is Biden Winning Back Obama-Trump Voters?

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

Is Biden winning back Obama-Trump voters?

The short answer to this is “yes” if by that we mean some of these voters are willing to express a preference for Biden over Trump in 2020 trial heats. It’s difficult to interpret Biden’s significant leads over Trump in states like Michigan, ,Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in any other way.

As Martin Longman notes in a piece on the Political Animal blog, it makes more sense to reason from these polls–which apparently now include polls conducted by the Trump campaign itself–than from articles that quote non-randomly selected working class Trump voters saying how much they still love the President. The latter of course prove nothing other than that such voters exist and the reporter found some.

That said, if by winning we mean in the stronger sense that Obama-Trump-Biden [trial heat] voters are for sure going to vote for Biden over Trump on election day, 2020 if that’s the matchup, then of course we can’t really say. But it seems promising that at this stage, some of these voters are at least open to going back to the Democrats. As Longman rightly expresses it:

“Ultimately, we cannot know if Biden will be the nominee, nor whether he can win back an appreciable number of Obama/Trump voters, but those aren’t the questions we need to answer right now. First, we need to understand which states are winnable for a Democrat if he or she doesn’t make inroads with white working class voters. Then we need to figure out if there’s an Electoral College path to victory in that scenario. If there is not, or if it looks like a very long shot, finding a challenger for Trump who has “strong support” in these communities will then be vitally important.”

2 comments on “Teixeira: Is Biden Winning Back Obama-Trump Voters?

  1. Laurie Jean Sullivan on

    It appears there are a lot of disinfected voters who took a chance on trump and now realize what a racist jerk he is. So they are shopping for someone. Biden has the knowledge and experience and understanding of the issues. Booker looks desperate striking out at Biden Vice President of the first African American president. Get real booker and Kamala Harris you have just turned me off.

    Reply
  2. Candace on

    “ As Longman rightly expresses it:
    Ultimately, we cannot know if Biden will be the nominee, nor whether he can win back an appreciable number of Obama/Trump voters, but those aren’t the questions we need to answer right now”

    So what is the title question and the quotes from Trump supporters on NYT, vs poll for Biden on Politico about?

    “First, we need to understand which states are winnable for a Democrat if he or she doesn’t make inroads with white working class voters. Then we need to figure out if there’s an Electoral College path to victory in that scenario. If there is not, or if it looks like a very long shot, finding a challenger for Trump who has “strong support” in these communities will then be vitally important.”

    Who is the we being referred to here? What kind of time frame do they expect to accomplish all of this? What happens if the second and third etc choice don’t meet expectations? And how do they intend to toss a potentially very popular candidate aside for someone else?
    Most people aren’t going to base their support for someone on who they’re told the white working class (or any other group) is voting for. I don’t need to say that right?
    I guess I haven’t been able to figure out who the target audience could possibly be for these posts.

    Reply

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