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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Early Voting Clues Favor Dems

Sophia Tesfaye notes at salon.com “Nearly 30 percent of the Republicans who have already voted in Florida cast their ballots for the former secretary of state, according to a new poll released late on Tuesday. Of all Florida early voters in the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll, Clinton led Republican rival Donald Trump 55 percent to 37 percent, while 28 percent of Republicans voted for Clinton.”

However, adds Tesfaye, “Democrats are faring worse in early voting in Florida than they did four years ago even as Clinton gains support from unlikely allies…In 2012 while Democrats outpaced Republicans in total Florida ballots cast before Election Day by more than 10,000…The discrepancy between Clinton’s early-vote performance in 2016 and President Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012 can be attributed to African-American turnout in the state. As the Tampa Bay Times noted, black voters accounted for 22 percent of the votes cast before Election Day in 2012, but only 15 percent so far this year.”

At The Upshot Nate Cohn explains that “Already, about 2,338,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,527,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 10 percentage points – among people who have already voted.”

Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette and John McCormick report that in Ohio, “Early-vote requests by Democrats in Cuyahoga County, however, are down 35 percent compared with the same point in 2012, and ballots returned are off by 31 percent, according to data from the county board of elections. Republicans are running slightly ahead.”

However, “Numbers for Democrats are more encouraging in Columbus and surrounding Franklin County, where ballot returns from Democrats are up 74 percent compared with 36 percent for Republicans from the same point in 2012, the local data shows.”

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