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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Stats, Maps and Polls Show Broad Clinton Win in NY

At The New York Times Alexander Burns sums up Hillary Clinton’s victory in the New York primary thusly:

Mrs. Clinton defeated Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont by crushing him in New York City and its suburbs, easily winning black and Hispanic voters and holding down his margins in friendlier upstate areas. Her political coalition simply looks more like the national Democratic base than his does. In a big state like New York that is more closely reflective of national demographics, that is a decisive advantage.
Even in upstate cities where Mr. Sanders might have been a more natural fit, like Syracuse and Buffalo, Mrs. Clinton won or fought him to an effective tie.

Hillary Clinton received 1,037,344 votes in the New York primary, while 752,739 New Yorkers voted for Sanders and Donald Trump got 518,601. That’s a pretty strong indication that, if nominated by the GOP, Trump will lose his home state in the general election.
Looking at the delegate horse race, AP’s Julie Pace writes that “of the 247 Democratic delegates at stake in New York, Clinton picked up about 135, compared to 104 for Sanders.” Further,

Among Democrats, Clinton now has 1,893 delegates to Sanders’ 1,180. Those totals include both pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses and superdelegates, the party insiders who can back the candidate of their choice regardless of how their state votes. It takes 2,383 to win the Democratic nomination.

Put another way, Clinton now has about 79.4 percent of the delegates needed to clinch the Democratic Party’s nomination for President, while Sanders has 49.5 percent of the qualifying total.
Clinton also took New York City proper with an impressive 63.4 percent to 36.6 for Sanders. Matthew Bloch and Wilson Andrews have a fun map at the Times, “How Every New York City Neighborhood Voted in the Democratic Primary,” which includes “find your neighborhood” and “enter address” search widgets. They also have maps showing breakdowns by precincts forcusing on race and income.
Pace notes that exit poll surveys conducted by Edison Research for The Associated Press and television networks “suggested Democrats were ready to rally around whomever the party nominates. Nearly 7 in 10 Sanders supporters in New York said that they would definitely or probably vote for Clinton if she is the party’s pick.” It’s hard to imagine Clinton’s share of Sanders voters not increasing when they address the question, “Do I really want to risk turning control of America’s military defenses over to Donald Trump?”

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