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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

DCorps: What Election Tells Us About 2014

The main message of the election and take-away from Democracy Corps’ election-night poll is surely a call to the Democrats’ national leaders to address this new economy where jobs do not pay enough to live on, working women and men are struggling and need help, and good American jobs are not being created while the government is beholden to those with the most money.
The voters want to vote for change, and this poll shows that the Democrats and their supportive coalition would rally to a message that understands people are struggling with the new economy; but that was not President’s economic narrative for this election and it showed. Tackling the new economy is a tremendous undertaking, but also one that will be well received by a large audience of voters and that is the best path forward for Democrats.
But for all that and two consecutive off-year wave elections, there is no reason to think Republicans have raised their odds of electing a president in 2016. Looking at this poll, one would rather be in the position of the Democrats than of the Republicans.
In the presidential electorate that we surveyed, some of whom voted on Tuesday, Democrats have a 6-point advantage in party identification; the congressional vote is even; and Hillary Clinton defeats Mitt Romney by 6 points – well ahead of Obama’s margin in 2012. Moreover, this does not reflect the projected growth in Millennials and Hispanics in the 2016 electorate.
The election was fundamentally important, but has not disrupted the national trends and coalitions – even on the day of electoral triumph for the Republicans.
Read the memo here.
View the Data.
See the graphs.

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