The following article is cross-posted from a Democracy Corps e-blast and linked to a major new Democracy Corps study, “Not so fast: 2014 Congressional Battleground Very Competitive“:
Not so fast.
The first Democracy Corps Congressional Battleground survey of the most competitive House races will challenge serious commentary and the informed presumptions about the 2014 election. Analysts, pundits, and commentators have concluded that there will be fewer seats in play in 2014 and that neither party is likely to upset the current balance. To be honest, this poll surprised us. Republicans have lost half their lead from 2012 – despite the more Republican seats and a more conservative electorate. It shows Democrats could at least replicate the net gain of 8 seats they achieved in 2012 – and that Republicans are exposed as the country tires of Tea Party gridlock, Obamacare repeal efforts, threats to Medicare and Social Security, and politicians protecting the richest. The parties’ strongest attacks, including on health care, produce big gains for Democrats – bigger shifts than we have seen in a long time. In the past, that has been a precursor to future gains.
Democracy Corps’ Congressional Battleground poll is the only one where interviews are conducted exclusively in the most competitive Democratic and Republican seats, using the actual names of incumbents in their districts. This is not a generic test ballot. And this survey has been a pretty good guide to the expanding battlegrounds in the elections of 2006, 2008, and 2010.
Read more at Democracy Corps.