washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Presidential Race Forecaster Round-Up

From Brad Plumer at Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog:

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 303, Romney 235. “The model estimates that Mr. Romney would need to win the national popular vote by about one percentage point to avert a tossup, or a loss, in the Electoral College,” Silver writes.
Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235. “In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, [Obama has] made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1.”
Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212. “The accuracy of my election forecasts depend on the accuracy of the presidential polls,” Linzer writes. “As such, a major concern heading into Election Day is the possibility that polling firms, out of fear of being wrong, are looking at the results of other published surveys and weighting or adjusting their own results to match.”
…Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248. “Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?”

From Mark Blumenthal at HuffPo Pollster:

The HuffPost Pollster tracking model created by Stanford political scientist Simon Jackman, which combines all available national and statewide polling data, finds that if polls fall within the historical ranges of polling accuracy, Obama stands a 91 percent chance of victory…If Obama wins every state in which the model currently shows him ahead (including the non-significant margin in Florida), he would win a total of 332 electoral votes, which is also the model’s median estimate.

From a phone interview with Emory University professor Alan I. Abramowitz, author of The Polarized Public:

Popular vote edge between 1 and 2 percent favoring President Obama, with 303 electoral votes

From TDS Founding Editor Stan Greenberg:

The final national survey for Democracy Corps shows Obama ahead with a 4-point lead in the presidential race, 49 to 45 percent (actually, 3.8 points to be exact)…The President has brought this back to the contours that gave him the lead before the debates – and that is enough to win, especially since he has a 7-point lead in the 12-state battleground for the presidency.

From Bob Dylan, via an AP report from his concert in Madison, WI:

Don’t believe the media. I think it’s going to be a landslide.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.