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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Kilgore: Demographic Voting Trends Track ’08 Pattern

Ed Kilgore has a post up at Political Animal, demonstrating that “voters are currently breaking down pretty much as they did in 2008.” He notes further,

In the context of a contest in which Obama is shown as leading Romney by four points (among registered voters), as compared with his seven-point win over John McCain, here are the changes in Obama’s margin from 2008 among basic demographic groups: Men: -5; Women: Even; 18-29: -6; 30-44: -2; 45-64: Even; Over 65: +2; White: -3; Black: +2; Hispanic: +4; >100k: +4; 50-100k: Even; <50k: -13; Republicans: -2; Democrats: +7; Independents: -14. Among white voters, Obama's big glaring losses as compared to 2008 are with those earning less than $50,000 (-12) and independents (-18).

As he concludes, “All in all, the partisan patterns established in 2008 have proved to be impressively durable during the Obama administration. ”

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