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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Dems Up in Battleground, Ryan Budget Could Finish the Job

The following report, by Stanley Greenberg, James Carville, and Erica Seifert on behalf of Democracy Corps and Women’s Voice. Women Vote Action Fund, is cross-posted from GQR.com.
Executive Summary
Last month, virtually all House Republicans voted for Paul Ryan’s latest budget plan (“The Path to Prosperity”)–and according to the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, they will pay the price in November. In this survey of 1000 likely voters in the 56 most competitive Republican-held districts, the climate has shifted in favor of the Democrats. Voters view the Democratic Party more favorably than the Republican Party, the President is viewed far more favorably than Mitt Romney, and both the President and congressional Democrats have made gains on the ballot since last September.
Key Findings
• The President’s approval and vote against Romney has surged in the battleground. Obama is now tied (with a marginal 1-point advantage) with the presumptive GOP nomi-nee. This compares favorably to the 7-point deficit he faced against Romney in these dis-tricts in December. Just 32 percent give the former governor a positive rating.
• Democrats are winning the image battle, up and down the ticket. While half of the voters in these districts register cool feelings toward the Republican Party and Republican Con-gress, the Democratic Party has enjoyed an 8-point bump in favorability since September 2011, and Democrats in Congress have seen a 7-point rise.
• Republican incumbents have not improved their vote position in the 33 districts where we have been tracking since March 2011– something you would expect from incumbents building support at home. In September, these incumbents were winning by a sizeable 14-point margin, 53-39. They now have just an 8-point lead, 49 to 41 percent, hovering just below the 50 percent threshold.
• Republican incumbents’ job approval rating is just 41 percent, and just 37 percent in the top tier of the most competitive 28 districts.
For more in-depth analysis, visit Democracy Corps.

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