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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

CA Key to Dem Hopes for House Majority

The Associated Press has a pretty good update on Democratic prospects for winning back the 25 seats needed for control of the House of Representatives. Dems have good opportunities in several states, but the AP article indicates that several races in CA could give Dems an edge:

…House Democrats’ path to power starts in Elk Grove, Calif., heads down to sunny Modesto and then rolls through the Central Valley to Riverside as the state’s friendly redrawn congressional districts and a number of GOP retirements offer Democrats their best opportunity for victories in November.
…Democrats envision gains in California, with the potential for four to eight seats. Illinois, Florida and Texas are fertile territory to increase their numbers. Even though Texas’ new election map remains in limbo, Democrats saw potential gains in the Republican-drawn version and figure court-approved boundaries will only get better as they take into account the state’s growing Hispanic population.

In all, Dems are focusing on 36 races nationwide, 7 of which are in CA. Recent polling indicates that Dems have a decent chance. As the AP notes, “An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll in January found that 47 percent of adults favored Democrats controlling Congress, compared with 41 percent who preferred Republicans. That was the Democrats’ biggest edge on that question this election cycle.”
The AP cites significant Democratic vulnerabilities as a result of unfavorable redistricting, Democratic retirements (21 Dems vs. 15 Republicans) and pro-GOP super-PAC’s. Yet, Rep. Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, sees a Dem edge in momentum, “We’ve gone from a gale force wind against us a year ago to a sustained breeze at our backs going into November…We’ve outraised the Republicans, we’ve outrecruited them in candidates and the House is very much in play…”I haven’t promised anybody 25 or more,” he said. “I am promising that it’s going to be razor-close.”

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