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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Brownstein: Polls Give Obama Edge, Romney Worries

Ronald Brownstein’s “Obama Is Reassembling the Coalition That Swept Him to Victory” at The Atlantic delineates the breadth and depth of the Obama revival:

The Pew survey, closely tracking last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, shows that in a potential general election match-up against Mitt Romney, Obama’s support among many of the electorate’s key groups has converged with his 2008 showing against John McCain. In almost all cases, that represents gains for Obama since polls from last year.
Whether the electorate is viewed by race, gender, partisanship or ideology (or combinations of the above), Obama’s numbers against Romney now closely align with his support against McCain, according to the 2008 exit polls. Overall, the Pew survey put Obama ahead of Romney by 52 percent to 44 percent, close to his actual 53 percent to 46 percent victory over McCain.
On the broadest measure, Pew found Obama attracting 44 percent of whites (compared to 43 percent in 2008) and 79 percent of non-whites (compared to 80 percent in 2008). In the Pew survey, Obama attracted 49 percent of whites with at least a four year college degree (compared to 47 percent against McCain) and 41 percent of whites without one (compared to 40 percent in 2008).

Brownstein goes on to note an “almost exact” reversion to 2008 figures along ideological lines, with Obama doing the same with liberals, moderates, Republicans, Democrats and self-described Independents. In match-ups with Romney, Obama’s support from white men without a college degree is down 5 points from his margin over McCain in 2008, but he has offsetting gains with white women of all educational levels. Brownstein reports that Romney is also tanking with Independents and tea party-followers, mostly because of his inconsistency on issues and his elitist image.
Brownstein concludes that “The deterioration of Romney’s personal image, and Obama’s improved standing among the groups at the core of his 2008 coalition” indicate that Romney will have tough time reconstructing a winning image — if he gets the GOP nomination.

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