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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Will Jobs Loss in GA help Dems?

Let’s go whole hog with the economic determinist theory of election outcomes for a moment, and assume that the unemployment rate is one of the better statistical indicators for election predictions.
Yes, that could mean Dems are headed for defeat in the 2012 presidential election. But if the theory is valid, there should be some positive correlation between unemployment rates in the states and whether or not incumbents or their party’s state-wide candidates, especially governors, get re-elected/elected. Seems like a worthy notion to test out.
If indeed state-wide officials are to be held accountable for their states’ economic performance, that should be good news for Georgia Democrats, since Republican Governors and the GOP-dominated state legislature have presided over steeply-rising unemployment in the Peach State. Georgia now ranks 49th in job-creation and is one of only 7 states to lose jobs in 2011.
As Gracie Shepherd explains in her Augusta Chronicle article, “Democrats criticize Deal administration’s lack of job creation“:

“We used to be an economic engine that drove the region. Now, we are nothing more than a caboose,” said Eric Gray, the communications director for the Georgia Democratic Party.
Georgia is one of only seven states to lose jobs in 2011, he said, and has lost 8,200 jobs so far. Deal made promises on his campaign to “kick-start the economy,” but the results aren’t there, Gray said.
“When did you ever think that we would have to look up to Alabama or Mississippi?” Gray said. Indiana is the only state doing worse than Georgia on job creation, he added.

All of which posits a daunting question to the Republicans who have controlled Georgia’s governorship and legislature since 2003, “O Mighty Job-Creators, Where are the f__king Jobs?,” as one of the OWS signs so eloquently put it.
There is some evidence that a blue tide is beginning to rise in Georgia. As the latest email from the state’s Democratic party puts it: “The Democratic Party of Georgia posted big wins throughout the state last week, solidifying the strategy of raising Democratic performance in key races by over 5% from previous elections.”

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