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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

New Gallup Poll: Dems Up, Tea Party Down

The latest Gallup Poll conducted Aug 4-7, after the S&P credit rating downgrade, affirms a favorable trend for Democratic House candidates, as well as recent polls indicating a big downer for tea party Republicans. According to Lydia Saad’s Gallup post,

Gallup’s first measure of the 2012 congressional elections shows Democrats leading Republicans, 51% to 44%, in registered voters’ preferences for which party’s candidate they would support in their district “if the elections for Congress were being held today.”

Saad notes that the Dem advantage is not quite as large as in ’06 and ’08, when Democrats enjoyed double digit leads in Gallup polls leading up to the election. But the trend line nonetheless appears favorable for Dems.
The poll also brings some unwelcome news for Republicans who have linked their election hopes to the tea party:

Gallup also asked registered voters how a Tea Party endorsement would affect their likelihood of voting for a congressional candidate. The effect is nearly 2-to-1 negative, with 42% saying they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate versus 23% saying they would be more likely. About a third say it would make no difference or are unsure.
Among registered voters, most Republicans say a Tea Party endorsement would either make them more likely to vote for a candidate (44%) or make no difference (42%), while most Democrats say it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (66%). Independents’ reactions are similar to the national average, with 25% more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the Tea Party and 38% less likely…These results echo those of a separate question in the new survey showing that, by 20% to 14%, more Americans strongly oppose the Tea Party movement than strongly support it.

Evidently, ‘tea party downgrade’ applies to electoral politics, along with America’s credit rating. Maybe a good bumper sticker for Dems in the months ahead should say “Had Enough Tea?…Vote Democratic.”

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