Political strategist and TDS contributor Robert Creamer has a HuffPo post, “Four More Reasons Why Democrats Will Retain Control of House and Senate,” which provides encouragement for Dems and worry for Republicans. Creamer notes that Dems are starting to perform better in polls and sees favorable developments ahead for Dems in terms of campaign spending, a growing focus on specific candidates instead of party preference, the engagement of President Obama in the midterm campaign and a rapid narrowing of the ‘enthusiasm gap.’
As voter registration deadlines approach in many states (50 state deadlines here) , Creamer sees a very encouraging level of engagement of Democratic activism:
…For months, Democratic campaigns have been preparing the most robust off-year Get Out the Vote effort in American history.
For example, last Saturday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had a National Day of Action that engaged volunteer-staffed canvasses in contested Congressional Districts across the country. On that one day, volunteers knocked on 200,000 doors.
Democratic candidates, the DCCC, Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and President Obama’s field organization — Organize for America — will have serious field programs in virtually all in-play Congressional Districts and every in-play Senate state. Those field programs will contact millions of voters before Election Day, encourage vote-by-mail and vote early programs and ultimately make millions of door knocks on Election Day itself.
My consulting firm participated in a study several years ago that showed that one door to door contact within 72 hours of Election Day increased the propensity to vote by 12.5%. A second one in the same period increased turnout almost as much.
These contacts will be supplemented by major member to member campaigns launched by organized labor and organizations like MoveOn.org.
The message from candidates, the President and leaders of important Democratic constituencies like Latinos and labor about what is at stake in this election will do a lot to increase turnout. But so will the old-fashioned message: “I won’t get off your porch until you vote.”
It’s unclear whether the Republicans will be able to mount an effective ground game to match their bluster, given the shrill preach-to-the-choir extremism of many of their candidates. But, regardless of what they do, let it be said in every swing district and every close statewide campaign in the month ahead that the street is blue.