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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Obama Approval Ratings in Key Swing States Suggest Ad-Buys

Bruce Drake, contibuting editor of Politics Daily‘s ‘Poll Watch,’ has an interesting post up, “Latest Round-Up of Obama Approval Rating by State.” Drake provides recent polling figures for the President’s approval in general in selected states, and also with respect to his health care proposals, where applicable. Of course, these numbers could change dramatically after a health care bill is enacted and comparing different polls is always an “apples and oranges” exercise. But they may of some interest in terms of where to invest in ads — particularly when we look at his swing state performance. According to Drake’s round-up, here are Obama’s most recent lead and lag margins in some key swing states, with presidential approval/disapproval (“strongly disapprove” + “somewhat disapprove”) figures first, followed by approval/disapproval margins for his health care proposals.

CO +3, -13; IA -1, na; MO -12, -19; NV -7, -7; NH 0, na; NJ +6, -11; NC -5, -12; OH -2, n.a.; VA -2, -5.

Several m.o.e.-range numbers there. Most of the figures come from Rasmussen polls, with the exceptions of Obama health care policy approval numbers for CO, NJ and NC, which come from Pew Research Center. Charles Franklin has noted a pro-McCain “house effect” at Rasmussen, which may translate into a pro-GOP edge in these numbers. And given the all-out GOP anti-Obama propaganda campaign underway and all of the confusion about different health care proposals, it appears the President is doing OK in these swing states, with the exception of MO, where Drake notes 48 percent of respondents “strongly disapprove” of his health care proposals. In CO, MO and NC, some more health care ads and stronger pro-reform publicity and education should be helpful.

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