washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Dems Have Modest Prospects in Gov Races

All but forgotten amid the excitement of the presidential race, the 11 governorship elections that will also be decided on November 4th are nonetheless important to the future of the Democratic Party. Dems are defending six governorships, Republicans have five. Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball ’08 has the inside skinny on each of the races, and an excerpt from his take follows:

…We think the most likely national outcome ranges from a net Democratic gain of one governorship, to a net Republican gain of one. This is no earth-shattering shift either way, yet one party will get minor bragging rights–unless the highest probability outcome occurs: that is, shifts in two or three states produce no net change in the total of 28 D, 22 R governors (the current net line-up).

Sabato, who has an impressive track record in his election outcome predictions, rates MO as the most likely Dem pick-up, and he sees WA and NC as toss-ups.

One comment on “Dems Have Modest Prospects in Gov Races

  1. kjvd00 on

    Very interesting post. I tend to think the same thing. There’s really only a handful of competitive seats, so it will be hard for any substantial gains. I had the Dems picking up one seat in a Senate forecast that I wrote at demockracy.com a few weeks ago, so I think we’re on the same page here.
    9/17 Governor Forecast


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.