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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

DCorps: Obama Has ‘First Real, Sustainable Lead’

New Democracy Corps surveys of 1,000 LV’s nationally and 1,044 LV’s in the battleground states conducted 9/28-30 bring good news for the Obama campaign — “the first real, sustainable lead of the presidential race.”

Obama has taken a 4-point lead nationally, but more important, he leads by 6 points in the presidential battleground states (50 to 44 percent). This lead represents a 10-point swing in the battleground states that Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 – a comparable swing to what congressional Democrats achieved in 2006.

In the DCorps survey memo, Stan Greenberg and James Carville explain,

…the race has changed in fundamental ways in the last two weeks – and not necessarily for the most obvious reason, the economy and financial crisis. Obama’s gains as a person and leader as well as gains on national security, contrasted with McCain’s negativity, political maneuvering and failure to take the Republicans with him, have changed the dynamic of the race.

In the pivotal battleground states, McCain leads among white men 51-41 percent, while Obama leads among white women by a margin of 50-44 percent. But Dems have a 51-43 lead in generic House races.

2 comments on “DCorps: Obama Has ‘First Real, Sustainable Lead’

  1. edkilgore on

    I honestly don’t think anybody’s dancing in the end zone right now. The current cautious optimism about Obama’s prospects is a nice antidote to the panic and despair that were so evident among Democrats a month ago, when McCain was up in many polls, and there was even evidence that Republican congressional candidates were suddenly doing a lot better.
    Looking at objective evidence, positive or negative, is what we try to do here at TDS, though obviously our own partisan feelings come into play. Today is one of those days when there’s a lot of good news to report. But I doubt anyone fails to understand that there’s a lot of work still to be done, and risks to confront, particularly now that the McCain campaign may be getting desparate enough to conduct the nastiest negative campaign in memory.
    Thanks for the comment.

  2. Jim in NC on

    I hate to be a downer this morning, but on many blogs, and the precious few liberal talk shows, there’s a lot of celebrating going on. This is NOT over. We have a lot of work to do. There’s a lot of evidence out there that the GOP is going to tamper with the vote like no other time. They’re desperate, resembling a cornered animal.
    PLEASE think for a moment what they’re going to lose IF they lose this election. They will lose the Supreme Court for decades, one of the biggest goals of the last 50 years. They will likely have to endure (if there’s ANY justice in this Universe) many, many probes into illegal activities born from this administration and Cheney’s reign of error (this could result in prison for some and a minority status for 20 years).
    Do you actually believe that THIS regime of Neo-Con-backed politicos will simply roll over and accept the will of the people wielding simple votes?
    They detest US. They’ll stop at nothing. We have work to do. Be realistic. Make calls. Talk to everyone. Volunteer. Anticipate the OCTOBER surprise.
    Only THEN celebrate on Nov. 5 after a win and there are no challenges in the courts.


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