New Democracy Corps surveys of 1,000 LV’s nationally and 1,044 LV’s in the battleground states conducted 9/28-30 bring good news for the Obama campaign — “the first real, sustainable lead of the presidential race.”
Obama has taken a 4-point lead nationally, but more important, he leads by 6 points in the presidential battleground states (50 to 44 percent). This lead represents a 10-point swing in the battleground states that Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 – a comparable swing to what congressional Democrats achieved in 2006.
In the DCorps survey memo, Stan Greenberg and James Carville explain,
…the race has changed in fundamental ways in the last two weeks – and not necessarily for the most obvious reason, the economy and financial crisis. Obama’s gains as a person and leader as well as gains on national security, contrasted with McCain’s negativity, political maneuvering and failure to take the Republicans with him, have changed the dynamic of the race.
In the pivotal battleground states, McCain leads among white men 51-41 percent, while Obama leads among white women by a margin of 50-44 percent. But Dems have a 51-43 lead in generic House races.