March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
Jim:
I honestly don’t think anybody’s dancing in the end zone right now. The current cautious optimism about Obama’s prospects is a nice antidote to the panic and despair that were so evident among Democrats a month ago, when McCain was up in many polls, and there was even evidence that Republican congressional candidates were suddenly doing a lot better.
Looking at objective evidence, positive or negative, is what we try to do here at TDS, though obviously our own partisan feelings come into play. Today is one of those days when there’s a lot of good news to report. But I doubt anyone fails to understand that there’s a lot of work still to be done, and risks to confront, particularly now that the McCain campaign may be getting desparate enough to conduct the nastiest negative campaign in memory.
Thanks for the comment.
I hate to be a downer this morning, but on many blogs, and the precious few liberal talk shows, there’s a lot of celebrating going on. This is NOT over. We have a lot of work to do. There’s a lot of evidence out there that the GOP is going to tamper with the vote like no other time. They’re desperate, resembling a cornered animal.
PLEASE think for a moment what they’re going to lose IF they lose this election. They will lose the Supreme Court for decades, one of the biggest goals of the last 50 years. They will likely have to endure (if there’s ANY justice in this Universe) many, many probes into illegal activities born from this administration and Cheney’s reign of error (this could result in prison for some and a minority status for 20 years).
Do you actually believe that THIS regime of Neo-Con-backed politicos will simply roll over and accept the will of the people wielding simple votes?
They detest US. They’ll stop at nothing. We have work to do. Be realistic. Make calls. Talk to everyone. Volunteer. Anticipate the OCTOBER surprise.
Only THEN celebrate on Nov. 5 after a win and there are no challenges in the courts.