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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Convention Eve Pollapalooza

The new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/ Public Opinion Strategies/National Public Radio poll of battleground states, conducted 8/12-14, has Obama ahead by one percent. 65 percent of lv’s say they are seeing negative ads about Obama, with 48 percent saying they are seeing negative ads about McCain.
The latest New York Times/CBS News poll of adults (about 86 percent rv’s), conducted 8/15-19, has Obama ahead 45-42. 25 percent said the candidates’ veep choices “would have influence” on their vote.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, conducted 8/18-18 with (with oversample of Hispanic voters), has Obama ahead 45-42 percent. “a statistical dead heat.” The poll also found “Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama. One in five is supporting Sen. McCain.”
Fivethirtyeight.com has an impressive, comprehensive multi-poll analysis of Senate races that has some good news for Dems, especially Mary Landrieu, who is now well-ahead. “Our model is now characterizing Louisiana as “safe” Democrat.”
Zogby’s 8/15-19, 2008 battleground poll of 10 states sees Obama with 260 electoral votes, with 163 for McCain and 105 electoral votes “too close to call.” Zogby moves FL into the McCain column, and has CO and NH now undecided.
A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of lv’s, conducted 8/19-20, has Obama leading by a margin of 42-39. 45 percent would vote/lean toward the Dem candidate in their congressional district, compared to 38 for the GOP candidate.
The Princeton Election Consortium latest meta-analysis has Obama up 1.38 percent in recent polls, with an electoral vote edge of 291-247.

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