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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Gallup Picks Winners 100 Days Out

We’re not all that into mystic prognostication at TDS, but we nonetheless feel compelled to share an interesting fact from a CNNpolitics.com post, “Midsummer polls often provide early glimpse of election results.” You’ve heard it said here, among other places, that early horse-race polls don’t mean much. Turns out that is not always true. In Gallup Polls taken 100 days before the presidential election, the leading candidate has won in November in all but two presidential elections since 1960, Nixon-Kennedy (’60) and Dukakis-Bush (’88). That would be 10 of the last 12 presidential elections. Heck, why not calculate it from ’64 on — that would be 10 of the last 11 presidential elections. (Queue up Twilight Zone music). Gallup presently has Obama up by 8. May their streak continue.

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