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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

New Hispanic Poll: Big Lift for Dems

Candidates across the nation are no doubt taking note of the new Pew poll of Hispanics. The poll, conducted October 3 to November 9 (m.o.e. 2.7) was all good news for Dems. Some key findings:

Hispanics now say they favor Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 34 percent, compared to a margin of 21 percent in July 2006
Pew estimates that there will be 8.6 million Hispanic voters in ’08, up by a margin of more than a million since ’04
In four of the six ‘swing states’ Bush won in ’04 by a margin of less than 5 percent, Hispanics are in a position to be a key ‘swing vote’ in the electorates: NM (37%); FL (14%); NV (12%); and CO (12%)
44 percent of Latino rv’s say Dems have more concern for their issues, compared to 8 percent who say Republicans have more concern.
Younger Hispanics are slightly more likely to favor Democrats.
79 percent of Hispanic voters say immigration is a “very important” issue, up from 63 percent in June ’04.
Although Latinos are 15 percent of the U.S. population, they are 9 percent of the eligible national electorate, but they are expected to be only about 6.5 percent of the electorate in ’08.

The Clinton campaign should also be encouraged that she was favored by 59 percent of Hispanic voters, compared to 15 percent for Obama and 8 percent for Richardson. Clinton has experienced some loss of African American support to Obama in the weeks since the Pew poll, but it is unclear whether Hispanics are also beginning to trend toward favoring Obama and/or Richardson.

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