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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Dems Prep for GOP Senate Blitz

If there is one safe prediction to be made about the ’08 elections, it is that the Republicans will throw everything they have into ending the Dems’ one-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. You can also bet the ranch that they will spend record amounts of money on attack ads that set a new standard of vicious innuendo and factual distortion. Expect one of the most grueling Senate campaigns ever.
In his RealClearPolitics article “Shifting Populations Will Impact ’08 Senate Races,” Reid Wilson says the hardest-fought Senate campaigns will probably be in Louisiana, where a GOP pick-up is most likely as a result of the Katrina-driven exodus of African Americans and in Colorado, where Dems are favored to add a seat, thanks to a rapid increase in Latinos and California progressives.
It’s early yet to be making numerical predictions. But so far Dems are in good shape to cope with the GOP onslaught to take back the Senate, according to Larry J. Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball round-up. Sabato shares his inside skinny on all the key races, and offers a cautiously optimistic prediction:

The Crystal Ball’s brutal bottom line is that Republicans will be playing much more defense than Democrats, and so the early betting line favors continued, perhaps enhanced, Democratic control of the Senate.

Seems a little conservative, considering the overall tilt of Sabato’s race by race rundown, but we’ll take it. For a more optimistic assessment of the Dems ’08 Senate chances, check out Senate 2008 Guru, who also provides a lot of insider detail.
Let’s be clear, however, that it’s going to take a lot of dough to offset the spending blitz the GOP willl unleash into the Senate campaign. So don’t put all your political contributions into the presidential race. Save a little for a close Senate race, so Dems can hold the line.

One comment on “Dems Prep for GOP Senate Blitz

  1. steve duncan on

    What they can’t win fair and square they’ll just steal. In ’06 they were truly blindsided, taken aback by their losses despite vigorous efforts at vote suppression and various other shenanigans. “08 won’t see a redux of such ill advised hubris. Rove & Co won’t take any chances, going full bore knowing there is no threat of legal entanglements or penalties for electoral malfeasance. Why? Check out Bush’s new claims of executive privilege in the Post today. Congress can no longer command testimony from executive branch employees. Barring a successful challenge in the courts (and Bush may prevent even that avenue of appeal from being attempted) everyone at the White House enjoys prosecutorial immunity and freedom from Congressional oversight for any criminal wrongdoing. And if someone is hauled before the docket? Bush pardons them before a criminal proceeding even gets to the evidentiary stage. The staffs of Stalin, Mao and Hitler had similar privileges. At least they knew fear of some sort, subject to a trip to the courtyard and summary execution for severe transgressions. This crew has no such threats hanging over them as they go about dismantling the Constitution.


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