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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

New AP-IPSOS Poll: Dems Got Serious Game

The new AP-IPSOS poll is out, and Donna Cassata’s wrap-up of the results indicates that Democrats are gaining momentum in their quest to win back control of congress. For openers:

the president’s approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, matching his low in May…More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall’s congressional elections — 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest.

The red is starting to fade even in the south, says Cassata:

His [Bush’s] handling of nearly every issue, from the Iraq war to foreign policy, contributed to the president’s decline around the nation, even in the Republican-friendly South….in the South, Bush’s approval ratings dropped from 43 percent last month to 34 percent as the GOP advantage with Southern women disappeared.

It gets better. According to Cassata, the poll, conducted 8/7-9, indicates:

…fewer than 100 days before the Nov. 7 election, the AP-Ipsos poll suggested the midterms are clearly turning into a national referendum on Bush.
The number of voters who say their congressional vote this fall will be in part to express opposition to the president jumped from 20 percent last month to 29 percent, driven by double-digit increases among males, minorities, moderate and conservative Democrats and Northeasterners.

And the kicker:

…On the generic question of whether voters would back the Democrat or Republican, 55 percent of registered voters chose the Democrat and 37 percent chose the Republican, a slight increase for Democrats from last month.
…”The signs now point to the most likely outcome of Democrats gaining control of the House,” said Robert Erikson, a Columbia University political science professor.

The GOP fear-mongers are working overtime to gain political advantage following the terrorist plot foiled by British intelligence and trash Dems as ‘enemies of moderation’ in the wake of Lieberman’s defeat. With numbers like these, they have a very tough sell.

One comment on “New AP-IPSOS Poll: Dems Got Serious Game

  1. Bob Griendling on

    The challenge is for Democrats to forcefully communicate that this thwarted plot is another reason why the Bush foreign policy, and especially the Iraqi War, is misguided and counterproductive.
    Could the problem be that no one person, a la Karl Rove or Ken Mehlman, is coordinating the Democratic response? Is there such a person? Is their a coordinated communication strategy for the Dems?
    If we’re not careful, we will find ourselves defending the “anti-war” tag. If we take Krauthammer’s bait, we will fail. At every turn, it seems to me, we should be saying:
    *The Iraqi War took our eye off the real terrorists.
    *We must maintain a strong military to protect Americans, not babysit an Iraqi civil war.
    *We must marginalize extremists by strategically addressing root causes of anti-Americanism: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and dictatorships in Arab countries we call allies.
    *We must dedicate more resources to public diplomacy to help the forces of modern Islam in their ideological battle with fundamentalists.
    *We must use America’s wealth to help poor Muslim countries modernize their economies.
    Our foreign policy is creating more terrorists than we can kill or capture. They only need one success for thousands more Americans to die.
    Who runs the Democrats’ message? (Please surprise me with the answer.)


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