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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Dems House Prospects Brighten Nine Weeks Out

Chris Bowers debuts the “MyDD House Forecast 2006,” likely to be an obligatory stop for political pundits and strategists during the next two months. Bowers evaluates 60 of the most competitive House races in terms of the most recent polls, partisan voting trends, campaign cash, 2004 district election results and DCCC ad buys. He provides mini-commentaries on the campaigns in each district and offers his first projection, which should brigthen Democratic spirits:

I currently project Democrats to take 15-25 seats, which would give them a narrow majority of between 218-228 seats.

Bowers worries that he may be a smidge optimistic about a few races, but his projections are credibly calibrated by the up-to-date evidence he cites. Nobody works harder at mining and assaying political data than Bowers, and this should prove to be a vital resource for politicos looking toward November. His PDF data is tiny, even on a 19 inch screen, but is more readable in print.

One comment on “Dems House Prospects Brighten Nine Weeks Out

  1. b on

    I respectfully disagree with the notion that this represents high quality, data-based research. For example, his notes for CT-02 are, “Seat is just way too Dem for 2006.” He offers no facts to support the prediction of a Democratic win — no polls, no money advantage.
    Cook rates this as a toss up. CQ says it leans GOP. Both of them are nonpartisan. Considering Bowers’ obvious political preferences — which I share by the way — it would be helpful if he’d offer more evidence to support his claims.

    Reply

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