December 14: Seniors Are Trending Democratic, Too
After some more messing around with exit poll data (no, it’s not perfect, but it’s got value for sure), something that few observers have noted struck me, and I wrote it up at New York:
Democrats made big gains among college-educated suburbanites in the 2018 midterms. Higher Latino turnout helped in certain parts of the country. Young people voted in numbers better than some expected, and remained solidly Democratic. And even in that famously pro-MAGA demographic, white working-class voters, there were signs of Donkey progress.
But let’s don’t ignore the fact that another recently conservative demographic group became bluer than in the last two elections: seniors. According to exit polls, over-65 voters went Republican by a spare two points (50/48). Republicans carried them 58/42 in 2010; 56/44 in 2012; 57/41 in 2014 and 52/45 in 2016. Even in 2008, the year of the Obama landslide, Republicans won seniors 53/45. This improvement by Democrats was particularly significant in that seniors are a steadily increasing percentage of the electorate; growing from 20 percent in 2010 to 22 percent in 2014 and 26 percent this year. It also suggests that some polarization scenarios that pit old conservatives against young progressives are a bit over-sold.
Even in what we think of as the heartland of Trumpism, among old white people, Democrats made similar progress. They won 36 percent of white seniors in 2014, 39 percent in 2016 and then 43 percent in 2018. A rising percentage of a rising portion of the electorate is a very good sign.
There are, of course, possible avenues for a renewed Republican trend among seniors, particularly if they stay away from proposing major benefit reductions for Medicare and Social Security (as they largely have since Trump became their leader). All other things being equal, senior, and particularly white seniors, are relatively conservative on cultural issues, including immigration. And even on “their” entitlement programs, it’s possible that Democrats will offer too much of a good thing, as Frederick Lynch recently warned:
“Older Americans probably suspect (as was the case with the Affordable Care Act) that Medicare for All might produce ‘socialized medicine’ that could shift Medicare resources from seniors to younger populations. In addition, these fears and resentments would be compounded if the resources were stretched to include millions of unauthorized immigrants who would become eligible for universal health care through citizenship.
“Mr. Trump has already articulated such fears and previewed a likely Republican strategy to attack Medicare for All as a ‘socialist’ scheme that will bankrupt Medicare: At a September rally in Montana, he said that Democrats want to turn the country into (socialist) Venezuela, destroying Social Security, and that they say ‘Medicare for All’ until they run out of money, which will be the third day, and it will be Medicare for nobody.”
Rebutting such myths will be essential for Democrats advocating a universal single-payer program. But most of all, Democrats need to avoid the temptation of mentally writing off old folks–especially old white folks–as they pursue what some have called a “coalition of the ascendant.” In the end, a vote’s a vote, and there are too many seniors voting to make them anything other than a constant target, even if Democrats don’t “win” them.
Wrong DemDude. Please go check out Josh Marshall, Atrios and Kos. Let the DLC join the Republican Party where they belong. I know you think that since we only got 49% of the vote we can’t possibly win without them, but the Republicans won because not enough Independents and Swing voters went our way THIS TIME. They decided to stay the course mostly because we’re at war. Four more years of what we all know are politics of disaster will bring those Indies our way NEXT TIME (maybe even in ’06). We almost beat a sitting President in a time of War. That’s remarkable. The corporate owned SCLM keeps pushing the moral values “mandate” that currently sits at 50.62% according to Mr. Teixeira’s post from above, and people like you are buying it. Stop it. I’m with Kos – I’m a Reform Democrat leaning hard left and don’t want to do business with the DLC any longer.
Pounder – That attitude is as misguided as the DLC/CDM bashing of liberal Democrats. Like it or not, they are a sizable portion of the Democratic base. We have to find ways to work together, or we will suffer even greater losses. We need a bigger tent, not a smaller one. Conservative and liberal Democrats have got to stop the sniping at each other.
there is nothing the DLC can offer that I am interested in. We have done it their way and lost, and then lsot soem more. they simply want to preserve whats left of their failed organization.
Real reforms are not going to come from these guys.