A relatively new term is popping up in articles on 2024 strategy for Democrats that I explained and explored at New York:
When you have a presidential candidate who is struggling to generate enthusiasm in the party base, it’s natural to look for some external stimulation. In the case of Joe Biden, the most obvious source of a 2024 boost is the deep antipathy that nearly all Democrats, many independents, and even a sizable sliver of Republicans feel toward Donald Trump. But in case that’s not enough, Team Biden is looking at another avenue of opportunity, albeit a risky one: the possibility of “reverse coattails” taking him past Trump on a wave of turnout that incidentally benefits the president of the United States.
That’s not the conventional wisdom, as the term reverse coattails makes clear: Normally, it’s the head of the ticket from whom all blessings flow, which makes sense insofar as presidential-election turnout dwarfs that of off-year and midterm contests in no small part because people who don’t necessarily care about the identity of their senator or governor are galvanized by the battle for the White House. But as Russell Berman of The Atlantic explains, this year is different:
“Faith in the reverse-coattails effect is fueling Democratic investments in down-ballot races and referenda. In North Carolina, for example, party officials hope that a favorable matchup in the governor’s race — Democratic attorney general Josh Stein is facing Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, who has referred to homosexuality as ‘filth’ and compared abortion to slavery — could help Biden carry a state that Trump narrowly won twice. Democrats are also trying to break a Republican supermajority in the legislature, where they are contesting nearly all 170 districts. ‘The bottom of the ticket is absolutely driving engagement and will for all levels of the ballot,’ Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told me.”
In other states, high-profile ballot measures, particularly those aimed at restoring the abortion rights denied by conservative courts and Republican lawmakers, may generate bottoms-up enthusiasm benefiting Biden and embattled Democratic Senate candidates as well:
“In key states across the country, Democrats and their allies are planting ballot initiatives both to protect reproductive rights where they are under threat and to turn out voters in presidential and congressional battlegrounds. They’ve already placed an abortion measure on the ballot in Florida, where the state supreme court upheld one of the nation’s most restrictive bans on the procedure, and they plan to in Arizona, whose highest court recently ruled that the state could enforce an abortion ban first enacted during the Civil War. Democrats are also collecting signatures for abortion-rights measures in Montana, home to a marquee Senate race, and in Nevada, a presidential swing state that has a competitive Senate matchup this year.”
Berman notes that the reverse-coattails strategy is unproven. Voters, for example, who attracted to the polls by abortion ballot measures don’t always follow the partisan implications of their votes when it comes to candidate preferences. Red-hot down-ballot races are probably more reliable in attracting voters who can be expected to follow the party line to the top of the ticket. A positive precedent can be found in Georgia’s coordinated effort of 2020, when a powerful campaign infrastructure built by Democratic Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock clearly helped maximize Biden’s vote; the 46th president won the state by less than 12,000. Perhaps a strong Senate candidate like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey could help Biden survive as well. As for the possible effect of ballot measures, it was once generally accepted that in 2004 a GOP strategy of encouraging anti-same-sex-marriage ballot measures helped boost conservative turnout in battleground states like Ohio, enabling George W. Bush’s narrow victory (though there are analysts who argue against that hypothesis). One reason it may work better today is the increasing prevalence of straight-ticket voting and the heavy emphasis of Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot on the kind of support for abortion rights that should help them take advantage of ballot-measure-generated turnout.
We won’t get a good idea of how either reverse-coattails strategy is working until late in the 2024 campaign when it becomes possible to measure new voter registrations, screen registered voters for their likelihood to participate in the election, and assess states where down-ballot contests are turning into a Democratic blowout. Team Biden would be wise to do everything in its power to lift the president’s popularity and build a favorability advantage over Trump that can reduce the number of “double haters” likely to stay home or vote for a change in the party management of Washington.
Yes, mobilization is KEY and it’s not too late for anyone to get involved. Here are easy ways to do SOMETHING, complete with links to get you started NOW. Please pass on to your friends, especially those in swing states, or who know people in swing states.
http://www.helpkerrywin.com/
Hey, how about the Libertarian factor? You gotta think that there are some Repubs that will vote Libertarian this year b/c they can’t stomach voting for a ‘liberal’ but they hate the Justice Department’s promotion of the Patriot Act.
In regards, to Nader, I’d be surprised if he gets half of what he got last time (approx. 2.7% of the vote). Look, the only people that will vote for Nader are the anarchist, hemp-advocate types that don’t vote Dem anyway. Even Chomsky is recommending that people vote Dem in swing states.
Nader is not a factor for the remaining UNDECIDEDS.
He will have minimal impact on the states in which he remains on the ballot, but I do not believe his total will have relevance this election.
Kerry is going to win big, so it won’t matter.
As *possible* evidence of my previous point about Fla, see today’s WP… there’s a story about how Dems are turning up in larger proportions than Repubs in early FLA voting so far… i.e., a county has 35% registered Dems, but Dems make up 40% of all early voters there…of course, that might not statistically mean anything…But at the least, it reflects energy, I would think…
eric…
…in the end, I really think Kerry will win Florida… Recall they projected that the minimum wage initiative would churn out a 5% turnout increase — people on the low end who come out to vote themselves a pay increase are going to be overwhelmingly Democrat…
Also, Nevada has a similar referendum on the ballot…My guess is that the Kerry people see some internal polling out there predicting a similar surge (like the one possible in Fla)… Having Kerry speak there last night to energize canvassers may push him over the edge…
Any comments?
Thanks!
eric…
The best thing the Democrats could ever do (in preparation of the 2008 election of course) would be to embrace Nader and follow his lead for reform. His specific analysis is invaluable and will provide the Democratic party with a road map for winning the 18-35 progressive block of young voters. This is the age group that will be most politically savvy, most informed (due to growing up with the Internet), and most difficult to attract to the Democratic circle with “Business As Usual”. The tactics of Clinton and the “run to the middle” methods will not work in 2008. Reform is on the horizon.
For some time, the site has taken note of the fact that Democrats have historically been better at GOTV efforts than Republicans, noting this as a reason to discount LV polls that show a seemingly disproportionate Bush lead.
That wasn’t the case in the 2002 midterms, however. Karl Rove took the lesson from Gore’s 2000 effort, and spent a lot of time and money on his “72 Hour Project,” which many credit with the R’s surprisingly sound victories.
This year’s efforts make ’02 look like chump change – the R’s have spent unprecedented millions in organizing their ground game, including both their standard voter suppression/intimidation efforts and the D’s standard phone banks and other GOTV efforts.
I’d be interested in hearing some thoughts about how this might effect the standard curve re: high voter turn out – why would things be the same as 2000 this time around?
There are now states with early voting, at which exit polls could be done. However, early voters may be atypical. At least, I have had described to me such data for one state, expected to go for Kerry, with Kerry where he was expected to be in the lead, Bush lagging, and largish (6% each) numbers for Badnarik and Cobb. As I said, early voters may be atypical.
I said (http://deep_blade.tripod.com/journal/index.blog?entry_id=233424) just this when Nader announced. Here in Maine, our state Democratic Party wasted countless hours and alienated thousands of Green voters (most of whom could be convinced to vote for Kerry with the right persuation) with an ill-conceived and ultimately failed attempt to deny Ralph Nader ballot access. Meanwhile, we can’t even get Kerry/Edwards lawn signs. Couldn’t some of that lawyer money have helped the ground campaign?
http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html#basic
Andrea Moro’s work from UMINN. She is calling it 51.4% probability of victory with a 6 EV margin towards Kerry for the final vote(Simulation study)
Basic work Bush 271.
MOBILIZE the troops! Her website has some really interesting visuals. It looks like bush is trending negative but we must keep up LTE’s to counter his prevarications.
Electoral Vote.com had 271 Bush 267 Kerry tonight. Bush is beatable!
The trendlines are running Kerry’s way but it is absolutely important that we sell our man to every undecided voter!
three of the four electoral vote predictors on 2004k.com were calling it for Kerry tonight. It is Kerry’s to lose! We need to help him put it away!
Kerry is not going to lose WI. Did you see the picture of the rally? I think the recent Strategic Vision polls (plus SUSA) has given the picture that WI is vulnerable. I don’t think this is going to happen. IA I could see Kerry losing. If it ends that way, Kerry wins with 2 out 3 big state strategy. No doubt about it, it’s going to be a rough fight in OH, FL, IA, and WI. I think PA is a lost cause for Bush. NH is going Kerry. Don’t even worry about NJ. NM is gonna be Kerry. NV, I’m not sure if Kerry’s time there is well spent. CO will probably go Bush. If this holds, Kerry wins!
I’ve spent a lot of time this year doing craft-registration of voters (craft = small number…17 this year…but maintaining contact and getting them to mobilized and to the polls and in many cases registering people themselves).
A lot of the population I deal with are natural Nader supporters, so I’m familiar with the demographic in this specific region.
Very few Nader supporters will vote Nader this time and will vote for Kerry. Reason: They believe Kerry is campaigning as what they view as a Democrat, while they didn’t vote for Gore Junior in 2000 because believed herwas campaigning as Kinder, Gentler Republican.
The Nader voters I meet now are more frequently not Nader supporters — they are “perfect voter” types who are conservative and generally vote Repub but will not vote for Bush Junior. And yes, there are some militant Nader supporters in the remainder, too.
But the Greenberg Fade effect will most probably happen, and especially in states perceived as close races.
The only problem with the current “Three State Theory” (whoever wins 2 out of 3 between OH, PA, FL wins the election) is that Bush is doing better in both WI and IA and that KE could win PA and OH, lose FL, IA, and WI, and lose the election. That may be why Kerry is campaigning in NV right now.
Some other potential areas for stumping may be NC, VA and WV. At least make Bush defend these.