Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
Yes, mobilization is KEY and it’s not too late for anyone to get involved. Here are easy ways to do SOMETHING, complete with links to get you started NOW. Please pass on to your friends, especially those in swing states, or who know people in swing states.
http://www.helpkerrywin.com/
Hey, how about the Libertarian factor? You gotta think that there are some Repubs that will vote Libertarian this year b/c they can’t stomach voting for a ‘liberal’ but they hate the Justice Department’s promotion of the Patriot Act.
In regards, to Nader, I’d be surprised if he gets half of what he got last time (approx. 2.7% of the vote). Look, the only people that will vote for Nader are the anarchist, hemp-advocate types that don’t vote Dem anyway. Even Chomsky is recommending that people vote Dem in swing states.
Nader is not a factor for the remaining UNDECIDEDS.
He will have minimal impact on the states in which he remains on the ballot, but I do not believe his total will have relevance this election.
Kerry is going to win big, so it won’t matter.
As *possible* evidence of my previous point about Fla, see today’s WP… there’s a story about how Dems are turning up in larger proportions than Repubs in early FLA voting so far… i.e., a county has 35% registered Dems, but Dems make up 40% of all early voters there…of course, that might not statistically mean anything…But at the least, it reflects energy, I would think…
eric…
…in the end, I really think Kerry will win Florida… Recall they projected that the minimum wage initiative would churn out a 5% turnout increase — people on the low end who come out to vote themselves a pay increase are going to be overwhelmingly Democrat…
Also, Nevada has a similar referendum on the ballot…My guess is that the Kerry people see some internal polling out there predicting a similar surge (like the one possible in Fla)… Having Kerry speak there last night to energize canvassers may push him over the edge…
Any comments?
Thanks!
eric…
The best thing the Democrats could ever do (in preparation of the 2008 election of course) would be to embrace Nader and follow his lead for reform. His specific analysis is invaluable and will provide the Democratic party with a road map for winning the 18-35 progressive block of young voters. This is the age group that will be most politically savvy, most informed (due to growing up with the Internet), and most difficult to attract to the Democratic circle with “Business As Usual”. The tactics of Clinton and the “run to the middle” methods will not work in 2008. Reform is on the horizon.
For some time, the site has taken note of the fact that Democrats have historically been better at GOTV efforts than Republicans, noting this as a reason to discount LV polls that show a seemingly disproportionate Bush lead.
That wasn’t the case in the 2002 midterms, however. Karl Rove took the lesson from Gore’s 2000 effort, and spent a lot of time and money on his “72 Hour Project,” which many credit with the R’s surprisingly sound victories.
This year’s efforts make ’02 look like chump change – the R’s have spent unprecedented millions in organizing their ground game, including both their standard voter suppression/intimidation efforts and the D’s standard phone banks and other GOTV efforts.
I’d be interested in hearing some thoughts about how this might effect the standard curve re: high voter turn out – why would things be the same as 2000 this time around?
There are now states with early voting, at which exit polls could be done. However, early voters may be atypical. At least, I have had described to me such data for one state, expected to go for Kerry, with Kerry where he was expected to be in the lead, Bush lagging, and largish (6% each) numbers for Badnarik and Cobb. As I said, early voters may be atypical.
I said (http://deep_blade.tripod.com/journal/index.blog?entry_id=233424) just this when Nader announced. Here in Maine, our state Democratic Party wasted countless hours and alienated thousands of Green voters (most of whom could be convinced to vote for Kerry with the right persuation) with an ill-conceived and ultimately failed attempt to deny Ralph Nader ballot access. Meanwhile, we can’t even get Kerry/Edwards lawn signs. Couldn’t some of that lawyer money have helped the ground campaign?
http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html#basic
Andrea Moro’s work from UMINN. She is calling it 51.4% probability of victory with a 6 EV margin towards Kerry for the final vote(Simulation study)
Basic work Bush 271.
MOBILIZE the troops! Her website has some really interesting visuals. It looks like bush is trending negative but we must keep up LTE’s to counter his prevarications.
Electoral Vote.com had 271 Bush 267 Kerry tonight. Bush is beatable!
The trendlines are running Kerry’s way but it is absolutely important that we sell our man to every undecided voter!
three of the four electoral vote predictors on 2004k.com were calling it for Kerry tonight. It is Kerry’s to lose! We need to help him put it away!
Kerry is not going to lose WI. Did you see the picture of the rally? I think the recent Strategic Vision polls (plus SUSA) has given the picture that WI is vulnerable. I don’t think this is going to happen. IA I could see Kerry losing. If it ends that way, Kerry wins with 2 out 3 big state strategy. No doubt about it, it’s going to be a rough fight in OH, FL, IA, and WI. I think PA is a lost cause for Bush. NH is going Kerry. Don’t even worry about NJ. NM is gonna be Kerry. NV, I’m not sure if Kerry’s time there is well spent. CO will probably go Bush. If this holds, Kerry wins!
I’ve spent a lot of time this year doing craft-registration of voters (craft = small number…17 this year…but maintaining contact and getting them to mobilized and to the polls and in many cases registering people themselves).
A lot of the population I deal with are natural Nader supporters, so I’m familiar with the demographic in this specific region.
Very few Nader supporters will vote Nader this time and will vote for Kerry. Reason: They believe Kerry is campaigning as what they view as a Democrat, while they didn’t vote for Gore Junior in 2000 because believed herwas campaigning as Kinder, Gentler Republican.
The Nader voters I meet now are more frequently not Nader supporters — they are “perfect voter” types who are conservative and generally vote Repub but will not vote for Bush Junior. And yes, there are some militant Nader supporters in the remainder, too.
But the Greenberg Fade effect will most probably happen, and especially in states perceived as close races.
The only problem with the current “Three State Theory” (whoever wins 2 out of 3 between OH, PA, FL wins the election) is that Bush is doing better in both WI and IA and that KE could win PA and OH, lose FL, IA, and WI, and lose the election. That may be why Kerry is campaigning in NV right now.
Some other potential areas for stumping may be NC, VA and WV. At least make Bush defend these.