It’s one of the more comical aspects of the deadly serious game of chicken that House Republicans are playing on the debt limit, but it’s worth pointing out, as I did at New York:
As the United States lurches toward a possible debt default thanks to House Republican hostage-taking on legislation needed to extend or suspend the debt limit, it’s increasingly evident that (as my colleague Jonathan Chait observed) the hostage-taker is strangely reluctant to name a ransom. Indeed, the initial Democratic strategy in this complicated chess game was simply to force House Republicans to say exactly what kind of spending cuts they propose to make in exchange for allowing a debt-limit measure to wobble its way to Joe Biden’s desk.
It’s easy to mock GOP lawmakers for the brainlessness, or maybe cowardice, of their effort to make Democrats identify the spending cuts their opponents want. The Washington Post’s Catherine Rampell tans the elephant’s hide with considerable panache:
“Republicans have Very Serious budget demands. Unfortunately, they can’t identify what any of those demands are.
“They say they want to reduce deficits — but meanwhile have ruled out virtually every path for doing so (cuts to defense, cuts to entitlements, wiping out nondefense discretionary spending, or raising taxes). …
“Republicans say they want lower deficits — in fact, they have pledged to balance the budget (that is, no deficit at all) within seven or 10 years. But they have not laid out any plausible mathematical path for arriving at that destination. They promise to cut ‘wasteful spending’ … but can’t agree on what counts as ‘waste.’”
In so quickly reaching this predictable dead end in answering the world’s easiest math problem, Republicans have one plausible line of defense: It’s how much of the public feels about fiscal matters as well. They really don’t like deficits and (especially) debt. But they really don’t like the kind of spending cuts that Republicans are talking about either (tax increases, of course, are categorically off the table for the GOP and have been since the George H.W. Bush “Read my lips: No new taxes” debacle).
A September 2022 poll from the deficit scolds of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found that Americans are up in arms about all the borrowing:
“A 31-month high of 83% of voters are urging the president and Congress to spend more time addressing the national debt, with the biggest jump among those under age 35 (8 points to 85%).
“More than eight-in-ten voters (81%) also said that their concern about the national debt has increased. Nearly three-in-four voters (74%) feel the national debt should be a top-three priority for the president and Congress, including 65% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 86% of Republicans.”
From 40,000 feet, all that red ink looks pretty alarming, it seems. More recently, this very week, the Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal found a majority of Americans stamping their feet about it:
“Most Americans oppose raising the federal debt ceiling without accompanying cuts to federal spending, a new RMG Research poll finds.
“Sixty-one percent of 1,000 registered voters in the survey said Congress should either raise the debt ceiling with spending cuts (45%) or refuse to raise the ceiling at all (16%). Only about a quarter (24%) said Congress should raise the ceiling without accompanying spending cuts.”
To House Republicans, the great symbol of runaway spending is the “monstrous” $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill passed by Congress in December. Many of them claimed during the fight over Kevin McCarthy’s Speakership bid that “the American people” were outraged by the measure despite the fact that it cleared the Senate, House, and White House. Perhaps they were thinking of a Twitter poll conducted by Elon Musk that showed that 75 percent of respondents opposed the omnibus bill.
The sad truth is, however, that the more specific you are in identifying items in one of those “monstrous” bills, the more support they command from the public. In 2021, Gallup published a summary of public-opinion research on what was then a $3.5 trillion Build Back Better Democratic budget-reconciliation proposal (soon whittled way down to $2.2 trillion and then to a net-negative figure in the ultimately enacted Inflation Reduction Act) and found that its provisions were very popular despite the debt they required:
“[S]everal recent polls … ask about the bill in a broad, umbrella fashion, and all find majority support. A Quinnipiac poll conducted July 27-Aug. 2 asked, ‘Do you support or oppose a $3.5 trillion spending bill on social programs such as child care, education, family tax breaks and expanding Medicare for seniors?’ and found 62% support, 32% opposition. A Monmouth University poll conducted July 21-26 asked about both the initial infrastructure bill and the new $3.5 trillion bill, describing the latter this way: ‘A plan to expand access to healthcare and child care, and provide paid leave and college tuition support.’ The results were similar to the Quinnipiac poll, with 63% in favor and 35% opposed …
“A progressive think tank, Data for Progress, conducted an online poll among likely voters July 30-Aug. 2, with a much more detailed 130-word description of the bill, including in the question wording a bulleted list of six specific proposals in the plan, the $3.5 trillion price tag and even a description of the ‘reconciliation’ procedure necessary to pass it. All of this (and the online mode, and the sample of likely voters as opposed to national adults) also didn’t seem to make much difference; 66% of likely voters in their sample supported the plan as described, while 26% opposed it — similar to the Quinnipiac and Monmouth results.”
So the minute you get into the particulars of Democratic-proposed spending bills, public concerns about debts and deficits tend to fade. And oh — there’s another problem for Republicans on the fiscal front: voters like the idea of higher taxes on the wealthy and on corporations to pay for popular spending measures.
The lesson for Republicans is clear: Their crusade for fiscal discipline is popular, so long as it is very general and you exclude higher taxes on the rich as a possible solution. No wonder politicians like McCarthy want Democrats to be the ones who name the GOP’s price for letting the U.S. economy get through the year without calamity.
You’re cherrypicking polls in Minnesota. Yes, the Star Tribune poll showed Kerry up by nine points, but a Pioneer Press poll also released today showed Bush up by a point, 48-47. Here’s the link (must register):
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/politics/10058538.htm
Don’t know which is right but the Star Tribune poll has overestimated Democratic support in recent elections.
On MPR,
Minnesota Poll calls it for Kerry
Mason Dixon calls it close….
I think Kerry will ultimately win in MN but I anticiapte a long night
I’m from North Dakota….a supposedly solid red state…but the wolf commercial is running here—both on radio and TV. Seems like a waste of money to spend in a traditional red state with few electoral votes????? Makes me wonder what their polls are showing.
The selection of that commercial also seems bizarre….this is a rural gun state and we aren’t afraid of wildlife or trees.
Another note: Listening to sunday morning services on TV (from Aberdeen, Tom Daschel’s hometown) they were saying things like “I won’t say it’s a sin not to vote, but it is a Christian responsibility). More bizarro world. This isn’t an evangelical area. It’s religious, but established religion.
If Virginia goes for Kerry, the race is over. I don’t think it will so I discount that particular poll. I live in New Hampshire, where in the latest Concord Monitor poll, Kerry leads 49-46. However the Monitor is skewered left with it’s opinion pieces, so I call it to close to call. The battleground states will be New Hampshire, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Michigan. Kerry will have to win Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota to get in if Bush wins the rest. My final electoral vote gives Kerry 280, Bush 258. However, I can see Bush getting as much as 290 votes if some states break his way. Bottom line, it is WAY TO CLOSE TO CALL. Have your rolaids at the ready and get on board for the ride. It’s going to be either a fun ride if you candidate wins, or a total bummer if he loses.
These numbers are making me feel better. The Osama tape made me wonder which way people would go. It seems to me the public should begin to realize if Bush can’t protect us from the flu, how can he protect us from terrorists.
I also wonder how people wil feel when they hear that Osama believed only the first plane would be successful. Many possibly died because Bush sat in a chair looking like a deer in the headlights.
VA has 3 groups who have lost out under Bush:
1) Techies who lost jobs under 2001 recession and failed to get jobs to due to outsourcing 2003-4.
2) Federal workers-who are under the threat of privitazation which is French for getting fired.
3) Military and ex-military types-they are angry at the are in Iraq.
Tennessee going Kerry??
from diarist at dkos
Huge Early Vote Numbers to support anecdotal analysis, concluding a small 29000 vote margin in favor of Kerry –
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/30/45946/384
worth some independent verification