March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
You’re cherrypicking polls in Minnesota. Yes, the Star Tribune poll showed Kerry up by nine points, but a Pioneer Press poll also released today showed Bush up by a point, 48-47. Here’s the link (must register):
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/politics/10058538.htm
Don’t know which is right but the Star Tribune poll has overestimated Democratic support in recent elections.
On MPR,
Minnesota Poll calls it for Kerry
Mason Dixon calls it close….
I think Kerry will ultimately win in MN but I anticiapte a long night
I’m from North Dakota….a supposedly solid red state…but the wolf commercial is running here—both on radio and TV. Seems like a waste of money to spend in a traditional red state with few electoral votes????? Makes me wonder what their polls are showing.
The selection of that commercial also seems bizarre….this is a rural gun state and we aren’t afraid of wildlife or trees.
Another note: Listening to sunday morning services on TV (from Aberdeen, Tom Daschel’s hometown) they were saying things like “I won’t say it’s a sin not to vote, but it is a Christian responsibility). More bizarro world. This isn’t an evangelical area. It’s religious, but established religion.
If Virginia goes for Kerry, the race is over. I don’t think it will so I discount that particular poll. I live in New Hampshire, where in the latest Concord Monitor poll, Kerry leads 49-46. However the Monitor is skewered left with it’s opinion pieces, so I call it to close to call. The battleground states will be New Hampshire, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Michigan. Kerry will have to win Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota to get in if Bush wins the rest. My final electoral vote gives Kerry 280, Bush 258. However, I can see Bush getting as much as 290 votes if some states break his way. Bottom line, it is WAY TO CLOSE TO CALL. Have your rolaids at the ready and get on board for the ride. It’s going to be either a fun ride if you candidate wins, or a total bummer if he loses.
These numbers are making me feel better. The Osama tape made me wonder which way people would go. It seems to me the public should begin to realize if Bush can’t protect us from the flu, how can he protect us from terrorists.
I also wonder how people wil feel when they hear that Osama believed only the first plane would be successful. Many possibly died because Bush sat in a chair looking like a deer in the headlights.
VA has 3 groups who have lost out under Bush:
1) Techies who lost jobs under 2001 recession and failed to get jobs to due to outsourcing 2003-4.
2) Federal workers-who are under the threat of privitazation which is French for getting fired.
3) Military and ex-military types-they are angry at the are in Iraq.
Tennessee going Kerry??
from diarist at dkos
Huge Early Vote Numbers to support anecdotal analysis, concluding a small 29000 vote margin in favor of Kerry –
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/30/45946/384
worth some independent verification