March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.
I personally think Faux, MSNBC and CNN will all up with egg on their faces Nov 3.
I was particularly concerned about NBC airing part of the wolves commercial within the context of a news story this morning. It was at the end of the story and the Kerry spokesperson was given almost no rebuttal time. They have shown their bias and it is time to call the peacock network and its cable affiliates on their behaviors.
I think that intelligent people see the attempted media manipulation by the talking heads. (Chris Mathews and Wolf Blitzer both have engaged in less than objective coverage of this election.) We need to help people see the brazen cynicism and manipulation for what it represents.
following a previous thread about chris matthews…during the mid week he called the elction for bush…
in last nights program….in the context of interviewing stratigists from both sides who basically call it a draw in both national and battlestate polls..mathews sublty and sliently retracted his earlier prediction.
i do not think the talking heads actually do their own research and come to thoughtful, rationale conclusions.
in other words their opinions are meaningless.
Both the Republican and Democratic strategist on Paula Zahn on CNN last night called Wisconsin and Minnesota the key.
They gave a nod to Iowa and Ohio. And the NY Times lead story this morning about the Rove ’50’s retro poll monitors shows the tactics planned there. Over 70% of ballots in Ohio are actually chad-style punch card.
But Ohio has early voting. And provisional ballots. And a week to get outraged. And no Jeb.
So Wisconsin is still the big cheese.