Bush leads Kerry 45-42 and 48-40 in two polls of nation-wide RV’s conducted 9/17-21 and 9/22-26 respectively by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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November 30: Biden Has a Relatively Low Popularity Requirement For Beating Trump
Staring at the polls and recent precedents, I offered some blunt thoughts at New York on exactly how popular Biden needs to be in 2024:
There’s abundant evidence that if it were held today, a general election rematch of Joe Biden and Donald Trump would show the 46th president in serious trouble. He’s trailing Trump in national and most battleground-state polls, his job-approval rating is at or below 40 percent, his 2020 electoral base is very shaky, and the public mood, particularly on the economy, is decidedly sour.
The standard response of Biden loyalists to the bad recent polling news is to say “The election is a year away!,” as though public-opinion data this far out is useless. But it’s only useless if Biden turns things around, and while there’s plenty of time for that to happen, there has to be a clear sense of what he needs to secure victory and how to go about meeting those needs. Vox’s Andrew Prokop provides a good summary of possible explanations for Biden’s current position:
“One theory: Biden is blowing it — the polls are a clear warning sign that the president has unique flaws as a candidate, and another Democrat would likely be doing better.
“A second theory: Biden’s facing a tough environment — voters have decided they don’t like the economy or the state of the world, and, fairly or not, he’s taking the brunt of it.
“And a third theory: Biden’s bad numbers will get better — voters aren’t even paying much attention yet, and as the campaign gears up, the president will bounce back.”
The first theory, in my opinion, is irrelevant; Biden isn’t going to change his mind about running for reelection, and it’s simply too late for any other Democrat to push him aside. And the second and third theories really point to the same conclusion: The president is currently too unpopular to win in 2024 and needs to find a way to change the dynamics of a general-election contest with Trump.
There’s not much question that Biden needs to improve his popularity at least modestly. There is only one president in living memory with job-approval ratings anything like Biden’s going into his reelection year who actually won; that would be Harry Truman in 1948, and there’s a reason his successful reelection is regarded as one of the great upsets in American political history. There are others, including Barack Obama, who looked pretty toasty at this point in a first term and still won reelection but who managed to boost their popularity before Election Day (Obama boosted his job-approval rating, per Gallup, from 42 percent at the end of November 2011 to 52 percent when voters went to the polls 11 months later).
Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
First, this would be the exceedingly rare election matching two candidates with presidential records to defend, making it inherently a comparative election (it has happened only once, in 1888, when President Benjamin Harrison faced former president Grover Cleveland). In some respects (most crucially, perceptions of the economy), the comparison might favor Trump. In many others (e.g., Trump’s two impeachments and insurrectionary actions feeding his current legal peril), the comparison will likely favor Biden.
Second, Trump is universally known and remains one of the most controversial figures in American political history. It’s not as though he will have an opportunity to remold his persona or repudiate words and actions that make him simply unacceptable to very nearly half the electorate. Trump’s favorability ratio (40 percent to 55 percent, per RealClearPolitics polling averages) is identical to Biden’s.
And third, Trump seems determined to double down on the very traits that make him so controversial. His second-term plans are straightforwardly authoritarian, and his rhetoric of dehumanizing and threatening revenge against vast swaths of Americans is getting notably and regularly harsher.
So Biden won’t have to try very hard to make 2024 a comparative — rather than a self-referendum — election. And his strategic goal is simply to make himself more popular than his unpopular opponent while winning at least a draw among the significant number of voters who don’t particularly like either candidate.
This last part won’t be easy. Trump won solidly in both 2016 and 2020 among voters who said they didn’t like either major-party candidate (the saving grace for Biden was that there weren’t that many of them in 2020; there will probably be an awful lot of them next November). So inevitably, the campaign will need to ensure that every persuadable voter has a clear and vivid understanding of Trump’s astounding character flaws and extremist tendencies. What will make this process even trickier is the availability of robust independent and minor-party candidates who could win a lot of voters disgusted by a Biden-Trump rock fight.
So the formula for a Biden reelection is to do everything possible to boost his job-approval ratings up into the mid-40s or so and then go after Trump with all the abundant ammunition the 45th president has provided him. The more popular Biden becomes, the more he can go back to the “normalcy” messaging that worked (albeit narrowly) in 2020.
If the economy goes south or overseas wars spread or another pandemic appears, not even the specter of an unleashed and vengeful authoritarian in the White House will likely save Biden; the same could be true if Uncle Joe suffers a health crisis or public lapses in his powers of communication. But there’s no reason he cannot win reelection with some luck and skill — and with the extraordinary decision of the opposition party to insist on nominating Trump for a third time. Yes, the 45th president has some political strengths of his own, but he would uniquely help Biden overcome the difficulty of leading a profoundly unhappy nation.
ok, eventhough i believe Nader will be no factor, few if any kerry or bush supporters are going to go to Nader, its going to be hippies and kids that wouldn’t vote otherwise. Also problem is that Nader is in only 32 states and may be in less than those. Polls are nationwide. Regardless looking at 3 way polls Bush is ahead by 5%. Averaing out both since many polls do both 2 and 3 way its at best a 4% race, hardly anything to be concerned about. there were several times in Sept and Oct 2000 where both Bush and Gore were 4% ahead or behind. The WP/ABC has equal number of D/R and the AP is heaily toward R.
Regardless a 3-5% gap in late Sept against a sitting president in a time of war is not that bad at all. if bush were not 5% behind Kerry would you say he might as well resign since the election is lost?
Nice try rambdan, but I have 2 points:
You cannot just look at the 2 way; Nader is in 32 states including some of the key states (ie PA & FLA) where the race is close. To just leave Nader off completely misrepresents a key dynamic in this race…Secondly, you left out 2 polls, WP/ABC & AP/IPSOS, which show GWB with a 8-9 point lead.
Kerry’s statements on Allawi were correct and needed to be said. Kerry cant be faulted if there are not enough intelligent people in the market capable of handing and digesting solid truth.
If the American people prefer to swallow chocolate coated crap, then Kerry cant be expected to take the wrap for that.
Bush has been proven over and over to be grossly incompetent, some have labelled him a blatant liar, he himself has questioned his own intelligence. If the people of America prefer this kinda person in the white house, then please dont blame Kerry for people’s lack of intelligence. People usually get the government they deserve.
Personally, I am in that crowd who says that Kerry is doing fine. He is doing, mostly, the right things and has said, for the most part, the right things.
I think Kerry has had a pretty good 14 days and I think this will be reflected in the poll stats from the coming 10 – 14 days.
Look, its the people’s choice. They decide if they want intelligence, integrity, level headed decision making, expert foreign policy decisions, rock solid domestic policies, a strong army, a quelling of terrorism as would be given by Kerry, or if they want to continue to live in fear of another 9/11, have a deficit that cant be counted on a regular scale, have insurance for a select few, continued mass murders on Iraq and plenty shadowy forms of truth, as would be continued by Bush and his cohorts.
Kerry has done enough and is doing a fine job and as such I cant think of any reason why he should beg the electorate to exercise intelligent judgment if its not there. There is really nothing that Kerry can do to make people intelligent and smart. Nothing.
I see a strong consistent figure in Bush all right — a man who said clearly that the war on terror can be won, then changed his mind, then changed it again, saying it could be won.
And what about that trip to Mars anyway ?
One word: outlier. Majority of polls all show the race is a dead heat. If Pew’s numbers are consistently all over the place, and they are known to eschew weiting by party ID, well, I think it’s pretty obvious what’s happening with their data.
I was going to point out to LL Smooth J that a busy candidate in the midst of a heated campaign can indeed by VERY tired at noon on any given day. I was going to do this until I realized that the whole point of Smooth Jazz, et al., posting here is to bog down yet another progressive site in the mud of distortion and non sequitur — an accurate description of not only George W. Bush’s campaign, but his entire presidency as well.
Hey, I have no doubt that Bush will win, even though the Gallup numbers are clearly dreck. Best of luck to all of you, even Smooth J and company, over the next miserable four years. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Four more years!
“Kerry was caught in another Whopper today: When interviewed by Dianne Sawyer, he said the “I voted for it before I voted against it” quote resulted because it was late at night and he was tired.
It turns out when he gave that speech in Huntington, WV, it was 12:00NOON.”
That’s not a whopper; if you want to see a whopper, revisit George Dubya Custer on WMD’s in Iraq (by way of Salon Magazine’s article on Bradley’s 60 Minute expose that wasn’t).
WMD’s in Iraq, now that’s a whopper!
> Kerry made a fool of himself dissing the Iraqi PM
> who came here to, among other things, thank us
> for our sacrifice.
Some Americans don’t appreciate sacrificing our own country’s national security in an attempt to liberate others.
Seems like a conservative stance to me.
I find the Pew results somewhat disappointing, but can’t dismiss them out of hand. I do wonder why they’ve been bouncing around so much, though. Three weeks ago they had Bush up by 16 (?!) then a tie and then by three and then by eight at a time when most other surveys show Kerry either gaining or the race remaining essentially static. I don’t think that the Allawi comments had much of an effect, at least a lasting one, and their young voter results noted by a previous poster are at variance with Newsweek’s extensive poll of that age group. (But such voters are volatile and unpredictable, so maybe Pew’s right.) But maybe Pew’s onto something; the race might be more fluid and changing more frequently then most analysts think. Maybe. I don’t know.
But since I don’t know Pew’s methodology, I won’t write them off as wrong, though I don’t think they’re uniquely right, either. They’re just one more ingredient to be tossed into the stew pot of polls and analysis.
‘Kerry made a fool of himself dissing the Iraqi PM who came here to, among other things, thank us for our sacrifice’
I think you miswrote — a man who cannot control his own country, his own capital city or even his own compound,. whose every moment is guarded by American troops, whose tenure is temporary till January came to America posing as an indepdent leader.
‘But ask yourself how many swing voters appeciated the assault against a foreign leader expressing his gratitude to us. And could this have helped to swing Pew and almost all the other most recent polls against Kerry.’
I don’t think Kerry’s comments on Allawi had any impact at all except among people who believe Allawi is Thomas Jefferson, reborn. Most people recognize he’s not a true leader and most of us also recognize brown-nosing when we see it.
And other polls haven’t shown a move away from Kerry this week either.
If I had to guess, I would put the real difference midway between these 2 numbers, which amoungs to a difference of 5 or so points. Still a lead for Bush, but not an insurmountable lead.
Btw,
Kerry was caught in another Whopper today: When interviewed by Dianne Sawyer, he said the “I voted for it before I voted against it” quote resulted because it was late at night and he was tired.
It turns out when he gave that speech in Huntington, WV, it was 12:00NOON. Some may consider this trivial, like his Christmas in Cambodia lie; But when fair minded undecided consider the ALL of Kerry’s misquotes and prevarications, they don’t see a consistent, strong, honest figure.
I can’t see how he can get any traction in polls with these kinds of misstatements.
Until we see what percent of the Pew sample was R’s, D’s, and I’s, we should reserve judgment. Andrew Kohut, a leading figure with the Pew organization, is an outspoken opponent of sample weighting on Party ID. This could just be Gallup all over again. In fact, we now know that Pew’s poll was done by Princeton Survey Research Associates, the same firm that does Newsweek’s polls (which have included disproportionate numbers of Republicans relative to turnout in the ’92, ’96, and 2000 elections).
Indeed, another poll released yesterday, by Investor’s Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor (polling agency TIPP) showed Kerry leading 46-45 among likely voters.
http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
Man, the trolls are out today. Must be a special, “build up to the debates” campaign going on. I’m fairly happy where JK is right now. About 5 points down or so, with the debates coming. All that’s happened in the past month is Republicans and Republican leaners have “come home” before Democrats. Happens every four years. If you recall, Bush was much more than this far ahead four years ago, but then, predictably, those last 5-6% worth of marginal Democratic voters came home, and it ended up a tie. Kerry is in better position now than Gore was about three weeks out, after the 2000 debates. He’s fine.
Kerry does have some work to do. The cumulative impact of these polls, for all their biases, should tell us that people need to feel more secure about the idea of President Kerry. He still has this opportunity and ability to do so, but it’s not getting any earlier in the race. Depending upon any number of issues (real news, debate gaffes or strokes of genius, which pile of hay the debate pundits choose to eat from), things could go in any number of directions.
As for hanging the poll swings on the Allawi-Kerry news thread, I can’t agree or disagree. I just haven’t seen it come up in the places I usually visit for news. True, Dick Cheney made the claim, but I have yet to count his as an Everyman sort of figure.
Coming back to Smooth’s much-less-than-smooth characterization of Kerry, this race in some ways does boil down to the idea of putting lipstick on a pig. Bush has done a deft job of convincing the public that Kerry needs the makeup. To the extent that no candidate is perfect, Kerry has some reframing to do.
The amazing part to me, however, is that people are seriously considering voting for Bush on the rationale that although makeup could never conceal his own piglike qualities (Smooth chose the metaphor…I can only work with it), at least he’s consistently a pig. It’s not rational, but it’s the game.
On a humorous note, this all calls to mind the old Adlai Stevenson line where he was told that he could count on the vote of every thinking person in America. Stevenson replied (paraphrasing from memory) “That is good to hear, but I need a majority to win.”
put a fork in kerry, he is done.people just do not like him and unless bush makes a major flub in the debates kerry is toast. the media is working real hard to re-elect bush so the debate spin will be all pro bush unless he messes up so badly they can`t spin it.it will tighten at the end ,but the reality is this election is not tied and that bush has a solid lead.
Plenty of talk about party I.D. But in this poll, 15% of the democrats support President Bush, while only 7% of the republicans support Senator Kerry? Independents back the president by 8 points. All in all, it’s hard to rationalize these results based on faulty weighting.
The president leads among women by 3, while Vice-President Gore won their support by 11 points in 2000. Young people back the president 48-42 (Rock the Vote indeed). Clearly, Senator Kerry is having trouble holding the support of people that have traditionally backed democrats.
Wrong candidate, or wrong campaign. Either way, when you have to “reintroduce” (McCurry’s term) your candidate on September 30th, you’ve got serious problems.
Can you explain the internals of the new Pew Poll, especially their samplin of republicans and democrats. The result is worrisome, unless it has the same flawed sampling techniques exhibited by Gallup.
When I went to the Pew site, I saw no information on the realative Republican Democratic sample size.
Wow,
You guys do a good job in pasting lipstick on a pig, but only the typical cocooners will buy your spin IMO: That the 3 point GWB lead last week is comparable to an 8 point lead in the same poll TODAY. You post the 2 polls side by side, matter of factly, and without perspective, as if nothing happened between the 1 week period between survey coverage.
I have news for you, if you’re willing to listen. Kerry made a fool of himself dissing the Iraqi PM who came here to, among other things, thank us for our sacrifice. Even Kerry flack, Joe Biden, cringed on TV while acknowledging he sought to assure PM Allawi after Kerry stepped in it.
To be sure, I know that the typical Michael “FahrenHype 911″ Moore and Whoopi ” Kiss My ___” Bush-Hating types, including many on this forum, loved Kerry’s offensive against Allawi; But ask yourself how many swing voters appeciated the assault against a foreign leader expressing his gratitude to us. And could this have helped to swing Pew and almost all the other most recent polls against Kerry.