A new poll, conducted September 1-5 by International Communications Research, has a 48-47 lead for Kerry among RVs, consistent with the recently-released Gallup poll and further calling into question the results of the Time and Newsweek polls.
TDS Strategy Memos
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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April 26: Kennedy Now Taking As Many Votes From Trump As From Biden
Polls are showing a subtle but potentially important shift that I discussed at New York:
For a while there, the independent ticket of ex-Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan seemed to be taking crucial votes away from Democrat Joe Biden, at least as indicated by comparing three-way and five-way (with Cornel West and Jill Stein) polls to head-to-head matchups of the incumbent and Donald Trump. Now, even as Biden has all but erased his polling deficit against Trump, he’s getting some more good news in surveys that include other candidates.
Two recent major national polls show Biden running better in a five-way than a two-way race. According to NBC News, Biden moves from two points down to two points up when the non-major-party candidates are included. In the latest Marist poll, Biden leads Trump by three points head-to-head and by five points in a five-way race. Since left-bent candidates West and Stein are pulling 5 percent in the former poll and 4 percent in the latter (presumably taking very few votes from Trump), you have to figure Kennedy is beginning to cut into the MAGA vote to an extent that should get Team Trump’s attention. And it has, NBC News reports:
“Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he’s confident that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will pull more votes away from President Joe Biden than from him — a net win for the Republican’s candidacy.
“’He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine,’Trump wrote on Truth Social late last month. ‘I love that he is running!’
“Behind closed doors, however, Trump is less sure. A Republican who was in the room with Trump this year as he reviewed polling said Trump was unsure how Kennedy would affect the race, asking the other people on hand whether or not Kennedy was actually good for his candidacy.”
Politico notes that Kennedy is drawing higher favorability numbers from Republican voters than from Democratic ones, which could indicate a higher ceiling for RFJ Jr. among Trump defectors. And it’s generally assumed from his past performances that there is a lower ceiling on Trump’s support than on Biden’s; he needs to be able to win with significantly less than a majority of the popular vote, as one Republican told Politico:
“’If the Trump campaign doesn’t see this as a concern, then they’re delusional,’ Republican consultant Alice Stewart said. ‘They should be looking at this from the standpoint that they can’t afford to lose any voters — and certainly not to a third-party candidate that shares some of [Trump’s] policy ideas.’”
One likely reason that Kennedy could be appealing to Republicans is the residual effect from the positive attention he received from conservative media when he was running against Biden in the Democratic primaries; his identification with anti-vaccine conspiracy theories also resonates more positively on the right side of the political spectrum than the left. So it’s in the interest of Team Trump to begin telling the former president’s sympathizers that RFK Jr. is actually a lefty, and that started happening recently, as the New York Times reported: “Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, pointed in particular to Mr. Kennedy’s views on climate change and the environment, writing on his social media site that Mr. Kennedy was more ‘radical Left’ than Mr. Biden.”
The idea, of course, is not only to discourage potential Trump voters from drifting toward the independent candidate, but to encourage potential Biden voters to consider a Kennedy vote.
If Kennedy continues to draw votes from both Biden and Trump, each of their campaigns will need to make a strategic decision about how to deal with him: Do you ignore him and count on the usual fade in support afflicting non-major-party presidential candidates as Election Day nears, or do you attack him as too far left (if you’re Trump) or too far right (if you’re Biden) and try to make him a handicap to your major-party opponent? The more aggressive approach has become common among Democrats seeking to intervene in Republican primaries (or in the recent case of the California Senate race, a nonpartisan top-two primary) by loudly attacking candidates they’d prefer to face in the general election, encouraging Republicans to flock to the supposed menace to progressivism. This kind of tactic — if deployed with some serious dollars — could have an effect on Kennedy’s base of support.
Certainly Trump seems to be considering it. With his usual practice of saying the quiet part out loud, Trump opined: “If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for RFK Jr. every single time over Biden, because he’s frankly more in line with Democrats.”
Trying to minimize losses to Kennedy and maximize opposite-party votes for Kennedy could become a routine practice down the stretch. Where and by whom this strategy is pursued will depend in part on where RFK Jr. is ultimately on the ballot. Right now he has nailed down ballot access in just two states, Utah and Michigan. CBS News reports the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is close to securing a spot on the November ballot in a number of other states:
“Kennedy’s campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
“The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.”
Coping with Kennedy could become a game of three-dimensional chess between the Biden and Trump campaigns. But if it begins to look like RFK Jr. has become an existential threat to Democrats or to Republicans, you can bet they’ll go medieval on him without even a moment’s hesitation.
send some meat… give us some evidence… please.
Thanks
Would it be enough if he just threatened you with a horrible death?
It seems to be the extent of the GOP platform these days.
That and pleas for a Mulligan.
‘We’ll actually, like, do stuff and things if we get another term.’
former Democrat… dont just lay on rhetoric… add some concrete evidence to your chat. You are sounding so much like bush… give us something to chew on… send some meat… give us some evidence… please.
Thanks
former demorcrat said
” We need a united country that has strong leadership”
I agree! Ask King George why he is such a devider? Why does almost every country in the world want John Kerry to win? We will never have a united country that has strong leadership until we get rid of the cowboy.
“former democrat”:
“…supplied by the very people Kerry would turn to…” etc, etc, etc…
You seem to have missed the part where the Reagan and Bush I administrations very publicly supported and armed BOTH Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden. Remember the picture of Donald Rumsfeld shaking Saddam’s hand? Remember when Osama was a “freedom fighter” because he was fighting the soviet occupation of Afganistan?
Nice friends you “republicans” have…
P.S. Cheney voted against more weapons systems than Kerry did, but somehow THAT fact is never posted on Faux News.
Don’t you realize that you are dealing here with people who read ALL news sources (not just the ones they agree with) and are capable of doing research for themselves?
Come better prepared next time.
BTW, I’m a real live, card-carrying yellow dog Democrat who can trace his dues back to McGovern. If you’re really a Democrat, you could never become a Republican.
Being a Democrat is a state of mind best captured by Will Rogers.
If you’re not a white person in the upper half of society financially, or not a fundamentalist Christian, you have no place with Republicans. I am, but I’m a race/class/religion traitor.
Democrats – give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
God almighty, those words still give me a chill, and may they until the day I die.
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To lying Puke who claims to be a former Democrat:
————
You like me!
You REALLY like me!
BTW, Sally Fields is one of us, loser.
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You’re scared, that’s why you’re here. If you really had balls bigger than acorns, you wouldn’t be here fronting. You’d be fighting in Iraq, or at least serving meals to soldiers for $90K a year through Halliburton.
Chickenhawk.
Go Cheney yourself.
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you guys would be funny if it were not so serious.You run around screaming into the night to boost your courage while you put your hopes and trust into a man that is no better than Jane Fonda at her worst. The weapons our enemies use against us were supplied by the very people Kerry would turn to for his “coalition”. The intellegence agencies that were supposed to protect our country were stripped of their resources by Kerry and his former democratic president while they voted to stop the very weapons that we depend on for our protection now. It is easy to set back and
be critical of a man who would sacrifice his personal desires to protect our country. If you think the president wanted this war any more than you or I , you have never tried to know the man.
I shudder to think what Al Gore or John Kerry would have done. Bush inherited a recession brought on by a false economy spurred by the phoney companies of the dot com. This was not Clinton’s or Bush’s doing but he inherited it. We have fought through the recession and are fighting through the terroist threat that has been building for over twenty years. We need a united country that has strong leadership but I fear the democrats don’t want a unified country, they want a Victory so they can advance their liberal agendas regardless of the future. Who is living in a”bubble”?
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In the past four presidential elections, Gallup has missed the number between the Dem and the Repub an average of almost 4 million voters. They might as well be throwing darts.
They haven’t gotten closer than 2 million in 20 years.
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They’re getting paid, but not for being good.
I am watching CNN , Lou Dobbs and MSNBC Chris Mathews. They are saying they don’t care about what happened 35 years ago. Why didn’t they say this 3 weeks ago when they were spending days and days pounding up on Kerry? They didn’t get tired of it then……….
Notice former Demorcrat’s e-mail, one of those right wing fanatic evangels who don’t give a shit about anything because Jesus is going to come and take them all away.
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Now is the time for Kerry to challenge Bush directly.
Bush is trying to squirm out of the town hall debate where undecideds would ask questions. In addition to finally putting Bush where he might have to answer real questions of real Americans, it puts Bush beside Kerry, who is 6 inches taller.
Time for Kery to issue THE CHALLENGE which I call:
MEET ME IN MISSOURI
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“President Bush,
Are you afraid to face Americans who don’t sign loyalty oaths to you?
Instead running all over the country giving your same stump speech to people who signed loyalty oaths to you, why don’t you come debate me in Missouri, before those town hall people?
Are you afraid to let America see us STAND face to face?
Will you STAND up this time, or will you disappear again?
Stand up and MEET ME IN MISSOURI, Mister President, or I will be there by myself on that day, debating your empty chair to the same audience.”
The buck stops in Missouri, Mister President.
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Feel free to spread it throughout blog land and Dem circles. Yes, osmosis works. No attribution necessary. Steal it, call it your own, but use it.
“promote their agenda for abortions, gay marriages, pornography, drugs, or any other form of behavior that destroys the very fabric of our society”
The republicans can’t beat us on our actual issues (education, environment, health care, tax fairness), so they lie, lie, lie about who we are.
“Former Democrat”: we are not the people who you are describing. You are a victim of propaganda. Try not to swallow all the lies you are fed, and get out and check things out for yourself. Also, try reading american history.
(Beep! Beep! Beep! Propaganda Victim Alert!)
WHAT KERRY SHOULD DO…
pull a Bush.
Kerry should come out and have this huge press conference.
In this press conference he should (in a forceful way) explain the following facts:
1) The election campaign for President is now tied.’
2) President Bush and himself have about the same amount of money in the bank.
3) President Bush and himself are polar opposites on practically every issue. He should explain the differences.
Then he should explain that this is the most important election of our lifetime. It is important, because the decisions made will affect the country for the next generation.
Will we have war or peace?
Will our children inherit the strongest economy in the world or will our children inherit massive debt?
Will we put the interests of the few ahead the interests of the many?
He should bring up Cheney’s latest attack. He should define it for what it is: an act of total desperation by an administration who believed that they could ride the worst terrorist event in US history to another four years in power. They believed that the American people would not care about the fact that one million jobs have been lost; or that millions of families have lost their health benefits; or that this administration has turned a record $250 billion surplus into a record $500 billion deficit. This administration believes that fear motivates this election. They believe that the people are too stupid to know the difference.
These are the decisions the American people have to make in this election. This election will not be decided by money. This election will not be decided by smears. This election will not be decided by pundits and talking heads.
It will be decided by the people. And it is in the people I trust.
Kerry should then say, “this is too important an election to leave up to the “experts” in Washington who have developed a knack for looking out for themselves. This is an election about the people. And to the people of America…I will not lose your election.”
Dudes, this would get such a reaction. Coming on top of the growing perception of a “limited Bush bounce.” Official Washington would talk about nothing else.
Kerry can then go on the offense regarding the economy, etc.
I don’t know about you guys, but i’m getting my second wind.
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I don’t understand why you would call the poll a tie.
Posted by reignman at September 8, 2004 07:23 PM
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Here’s why:
These polls are usually around 1000 people.
482 for Bush
473 for Kerry
41 for undecided
The poll is not and cannot be accurate. The only poll that is theoretically accurate is the election. Everything else is merely AN EDUCATED GUESS.
That is all polls are: EDUCATED GUESSES.
Problem is, as Ruy has shown, is that some of the guesses aren’t very educated these days. They have bad methodology, too short a time frame, too limited a means of data recovery, and/or inherent bias.
The next 1000 numbers called could easily have shown Kerry up by 9. It is not a statistically significant difference, hence, it’s a tie.
Um…a 3.5 margin of error w/ Bush a point ahead suggests that Bush has a small lead of Kerry, because the probability of that being so is larger than the probability of Kerry being in the lead. I guess it’s a virtual tie, but I don’t understand why you would call the poll a tie.
Can you smell it friends?
The smell of Democratic victory in November.
I mean, after a $50 million advertising blitz by Bush in August. To Kerry’s blackout.
After a smear by swift boat liars.
After an overtly negative party convention.
If they lead us at all, it’s by one or two percent.
In reality, I think they are behind or we are tied.
Now the Democrats have their gloves off.
Now Bush’s AWOL story is coming to light.
Now Kitty Kelly’s, Bob Graham’s book is coming out.
What does this all mean?
Bye-bye Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love the smell of smoldering right wing shills in the morning. Smells like….VICTORY!
I wonder if there is some way to translate Jeff’s 50-46 into a likely electoral number.
Former Democrat..
Based on your definition of repubs, how do they differ from the democrats? You seem to be implying that only repubs have these values but you need to know that this is absolutely untrue. You have spent too much time in the repub bubble and have gone thru a sad conversion.
I do not know any democrats who are not hard working, who do not pay taxes, who are not christian minded, who do not believe in the tenets on which the country was founded.. and if there are any dems who do not share in the values above, I am sure there are just as many repubs who do not share these values either.
It would do you plenty good to burst the GOP bubble and start to review the issues from all sides.
As much as you seem to imply the righteousness of the repubs, you must also know that truth and credibility are scarce commodities in the GOP camp also. Have a look.
Former Democrat?
Or current Bush shill?
Another one of the online goobers who thinks posting spam that someone else wrote. That story has been around the world a few times. All the Bushies who don’t watch Fox or listen to Rush all day, send emails with crap like that on it.
“former democrat”: I suggest that you take yourself and your Zell Miller-approved RNC talking points over to the Free Republic blog, where you and they clearly belong. We’re really not interested in that kind of garbage here.
Should clarify: An LV screen could presumably ask “Did you vote in the last election AND are you likely to vote this time. However, if the constraint is to reduce the sample size to match % voter turnout the first to be tossed out will be people who answered NO/NO or NO/YES.
I figured they were skidding when Cheney
came out with shrill scare tactics
And O’Reilly re-introduced Swiftboat Satan
O’Neill last night.
I just did my own analysis of the Gallup poll.
Using their own internals:
With each candidate receiving 90% support among their base (7% voting for the other candidate).
Also, with Kerry actually ahead of Bush among independants: 49% to 46%.
Here is how it ACTUALLY breaks down, if one assumes that the same number of people vote in 2004, which voted in 2000 (how about that for a LIKELY VOTER).
In 2000, of all those who voted – 39% were Dems; 35% were Republicans; 26% were independants.
Therefore using these numbers and the numbers supplied in the Gallup poll internals:
Kerry 50.3%
Bush 46. 2%
Is it me, or do you think someone is messing with these numbers?
LV screens will always bias in favor of republicans as they are usually more motivated than dems. Fortunately for dems they are outnumbered. If voter turnout is unusually high (and there’s no way the LV number can predict that since they are based on historic data) then the polls will be significantly off – which I agree is good, it keeps democrats more motivated. A landslide will be so sweet.
My choice for K/E slogan: THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO FEAR IS BUSH/CHENEY!
New Kerry motto:
GIVE ‘EM HELL KERRY!
It is hard to measure motivation of the voters. I think the closeness of the last election, and the polarized electorate will work both sides into a frenzy to get out the vote. We will see a reversal of the trend of lower voter turnout this year.
Frankly, I am glad to see Bush pull ahead in the polls. This is not going to be easy, so we have to work harder if we want the best results. The previously unthinkable massive turnout could change the political landscape as dramatically as in years past when Presidential Candidates had coatails.
Does anyone doubt that Bush deserves to have the rug pulled out from under his feet more than any President in history? Not just a loss, but a BIG loss. Why not hope for that? After all, they have earned it.
Time for a good post explaining LV models. You’ve said in the past that they become much more accurate as the election approaches. It seems likely that news stories will increasingly favor LV results.
Yet it seems possible to me that they may be biased republican right up to the election. People’s statements about what they will do are always less reliable than measuring their actual actions. Thus, I would imagine that an important predictor of LV’s is whether they voted in the last presidential election. But the last election was a time of demoralization for dems, and this ought to be one for repubs (I know, we’ll see). But if prior voting figures strongly in LV screens, then I think their predictions could easily be off this time around… Right up to election day.
What’s your take on LV models? What do they typically incorporate? Why do you say they get better closer to the election? Are they based entirely on respondent predictions or on prior behavior?
Tx
Charlie
Do not despair…the Swift Boat has turned to the attack and not a minute too soon either
Every silver cloud has a dark intrnals lining…
ICR
The Race for Independents
The ICR press release of August 14th reported a substantive lead for John Kerry among registered Independents. This was in sharp contrast to August, 2000, when the last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, trailed in this important population by nearly 10 points.
However, since that time there has been a sharp erosion of preference for Kerry amongst this critical population. In fact, within this population Bush now holds a significant lead (47.7% to 36.9% with a 8% margin of error), in sharp contrast to one month ago:
Edwards Calls Cheney Remark Dishonorable and un-American
CLARKSBURG, W.Va. – Democrat John Edwards urged President Bush on Wednesday to renounce Vice President Dick Cheney’s statement that the United States risks another terrorist attack if voters make the wrong election choice, calling the warning dishonorable and un-American.
“This statement by the vice president of the United States was intended to divide us,” Edwards said. “It was calculated to divide us on an issue of safety and security for the American people. It’s wrong and it’s un-American.”
Edwards made his comments to supporters while campaigning in West Virginia, a day after Cheney said at a town hall meeting in Iowa, “It’s absolutely essential that eight weeks from today, on Nov. 2, we make the right choice, because if we make the wrong choice then the danger is that we’ll get hit again and we’ll be hit in a way that will be devastating from the standpoint of the United States.”
Bush declined to comment on Cheney’s statement when asked about it Wednesday at the White House.
Of course Bush would not comment because he is a coward.
Way to go Edwards ! make these slimeballs accountable for their sordid actions and behavior.
I cannot wait for the debates …
Kerry going to take Bushie boy to the woodshed and Edwards is going to verbally deconstruct Cheney.
This is weird phraseology “Based on registered voters who are certain they will vote, 48.2 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry, and 4.1 percent for others or undecided.”
So the screen is self identifying – There 90% of self-identified GOP said they were certain to vote. 80% of self ID’d Dems, and now over 70% of self ID’d Independents.
May I say that I am skeptical all around. All these people certain to vote – pshaw.
The other thing was the surge in Indies (self ID’d) certain to vote – well I think those are O’Reilly Indies, meaning Republicans.
Srry, Ruy, throw it out. Funny looking poll.
More of a bowling ball bounce than a basketball.