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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

New ICR Poll Has Kerry Over Bush by a Point

A new poll, conducted September 1-5 by International Communications Research, has a 48-47 lead for Kerry among RVs, consistent with the recently-released Gallup poll and further calling into question the results of the Time and Newsweek polls.

33 comments on “New ICR Poll Has Kerry Over Bush by a Point

  1. Davis X. Machina on

    send some meat… give us some evidence… please.
    Thanks
    Would it be enough if he just threatened you with a horrible death?
    It seems to be the extent of the GOP platform these days.
    That and pleas for a Mulligan.
    ‘We’ll actually, like, do stuff and things if we get another term.’

    Reply
  2. Bel on

    former Democrat… dont just lay on rhetoric… add some concrete evidence to your chat. You are sounding so much like bush… give us something to chew on… send some meat… give us some evidence… please.
    Thanks

    Reply
  3. Billy on

    former demorcrat said
    ” We need a united country that has strong leadership”
    I agree! Ask King George why he is such a devider? Why does almost every country in the world want John Kerry to win? We will never have a united country that has strong leadership until we get rid of the cowboy.

    Reply
  4. Lawrence on

    “former democrat”:
    “…supplied by the very people Kerry would turn to…” etc, etc, etc…
    You seem to have missed the part where the Reagan and Bush I administrations very publicly supported and armed BOTH Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden. Remember the picture of Donald Rumsfeld shaking Saddam’s hand? Remember when Osama was a “freedom fighter” because he was fighting the soviet occupation of Afganistan?
    Nice friends you “republicans” have…
    P.S. Cheney voted against more weapons systems than Kerry did, but somehow THAT fact is never posted on Faux News.
    Don’t you realize that you are dealing here with people who read ALL news sources (not just the ones they agree with) and are capable of doing research for themselves?
    Come better prepared next time.

    Reply
  5. gabby hayes on

    BTW, I’m a real live, card-carrying yellow dog Democrat who can trace his dues back to McGovern. If you’re really a Democrat, you could never become a Republican.
    Being a Democrat is a state of mind best captured by Will Rogers.
    If you’re not a white person in the upper half of society financially, or not a fundamentalist Christian, you have no place with Republicans. I am, but I’m a race/class/religion traitor.
    Democrats – give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
    God almighty, those words still give me a chill, and may they until the day I die.

    Reply
  6. gabby hayes on

    *****************************
    To lying Puke who claims to be a former Democrat:
    ————
    You like me!
    You REALLY like me!
    BTW, Sally Fields is one of us, loser.
    *****************************
    You’re scared, that’s why you’re here. If you really had balls bigger than acorns, you wouldn’t be here fronting. You’d be fighting in Iraq, or at least serving meals to soldiers for $90K a year through Halliburton.
    Chickenhawk.
    Go Cheney yourself.
    *****************************

    Reply
  7. former democrat on

    you guys would be funny if it were not so serious.You run around screaming into the night to boost your courage while you put your hopes and trust into a man that is no better than Jane Fonda at her worst. The weapons our enemies use against us were supplied by the very people Kerry would turn to for his “coalition”. The intellegence agencies that were supposed to protect our country were stripped of their resources by Kerry and his former democratic president while they voted to stop the very weapons that we depend on for our protection now. It is easy to set back and
    be critical of a man who would sacrifice his personal desires to protect our country. If you think the president wanted this war any more than you or I , you have never tried to know the man.
    I shudder to think what Al Gore or John Kerry would have done. Bush inherited a recession brought on by a false economy spurred by the phoney companies of the dot com. This was not Clinton’s or Bush’s doing but he inherited it. We have fought through the recession and are fighting through the terroist threat that has been building for over twenty years. We need a united country that has strong leadership but I fear the democrats don’t want a unified country, they want a Victory so they can advance their liberal agendas regardless of the future. Who is living in a”bubble”?

    Reply
  8. gabby hayes on

    ***********************************
    In the past four presidential elections, Gallup has missed the number between the Dem and the Repub an average of almost 4 million voters. They might as well be throwing darts.
    They haven’t gotten closer than 2 million in 20 years.
    ****************************************
    They’re getting paid, but not for being good.

    Reply
  9. Ed on

    I am watching CNN , Lou Dobbs and MSNBC Chris Mathews. They are saying they don’t care about what happened 35 years ago. Why didn’t they say this 3 weeks ago when they were spending days and days pounding up on Kerry? They didn’t get tired of it then……….

    Reply
  10. Ed on

    Notice former Demorcrat’s e-mail, one of those right wing fanatic evangels who don’t give a shit about anything because Jesus is going to come and take them all away.

    Reply
  11. gabby hayes on

    ***********************************
    Now is the time for Kerry to challenge Bush directly.
    Bush is trying to squirm out of the town hall debate where undecideds would ask questions. In addition to finally putting Bush where he might have to answer real questions of real Americans, it puts Bush beside Kerry, who is 6 inches taller.
    Time for Kery to issue THE CHALLENGE which I call:
    MEET ME IN MISSOURI
    ——————————
    “President Bush,
    Are you afraid to face Americans who don’t sign loyalty oaths to you?
    Instead running all over the country giving your same stump speech to people who signed loyalty oaths to you, why don’t you come debate me in Missouri, before those town hall people?
    Are you afraid to let America see us STAND face to face?
    Will you STAND up this time, or will you disappear again?
    Stand up and MEET ME IN MISSOURI, Mister President, or I will be there by myself on that day, debating your empty chair to the same audience.”
    The buck stops in Missouri, Mister President.
    ————————————————-
    Feel free to spread it throughout blog land and Dem circles. Yes, osmosis works. No attribution necessary. Steal it, call it your own, but use it.

    Reply
  12. Lawrence on

    “promote their agenda for abortions, gay marriages, pornography, drugs, or any other form of behavior that destroys the very fabric of our society”
    The republicans can’t beat us on our actual issues (education, environment, health care, tax fairness), so they lie, lie, lie about who we are.
    “Former Democrat”: we are not the people who you are describing. You are a victim of propaganda. Try not to swallow all the lies you are fed, and get out and check things out for yourself. Also, try reading american history.
    (Beep! Beep! Beep! Propaganda Victim Alert!)

    Reply
  13. Jeff on

    WHAT KERRY SHOULD DO…
    pull a Bush.
    Kerry should come out and have this huge press conference.
    In this press conference he should (in a forceful way) explain the following facts:
    1) The election campaign for President is now tied.’
    2) President Bush and himself have about the same amount of money in the bank.
    3) President Bush and himself are polar opposites on practically every issue. He should explain the differences.
    Then he should explain that this is the most important election of our lifetime. It is important, because the decisions made will affect the country for the next generation.
    Will we have war or peace?
    Will our children inherit the strongest economy in the world or will our children inherit massive debt?
    Will we put the interests of the few ahead the interests of the many?
    He should bring up Cheney’s latest attack. He should define it for what it is: an act of total desperation by an administration who believed that they could ride the worst terrorist event in US history to another four years in power. They believed that the American people would not care about the fact that one million jobs have been lost; or that millions of families have lost their health benefits; or that this administration has turned a record $250 billion surplus into a record $500 billion deficit. This administration believes that fear motivates this election. They believe that the people are too stupid to know the difference.
    These are the decisions the American people have to make in this election. This election will not be decided by money. This election will not be decided by smears. This election will not be decided by pundits and talking heads.
    It will be decided by the people. And it is in the people I trust.
    Kerry should then say, “this is too important an election to leave up to the “experts” in Washington who have developed a knack for looking out for themselves. This is an election about the people. And to the people of America…I will not lose your election.”
    Dudes, this would get such a reaction. Coming on top of the growing perception of a “limited Bush bounce.” Official Washington would talk about nothing else.
    Kerry can then go on the offense regarding the economy, etc.
    I don’t know about you guys, but i’m getting my second wind.

    Reply
  14. gabby hayes on

    ****************************
    I don’t understand why you would call the poll a tie.
    Posted by reignman at September 8, 2004 07:23 PM
    ———————————————–
    Here’s why:
    These polls are usually around 1000 people.
    482 for Bush
    473 for Kerry
    41 for undecided
    The poll is not and cannot be accurate. The only poll that is theoretically accurate is the election. Everything else is merely AN EDUCATED GUESS.
    That is all polls are: EDUCATED GUESSES.
    Problem is, as Ruy has shown, is that some of the guesses aren’t very educated these days. They have bad methodology, too short a time frame, too limited a means of data recovery, and/or inherent bias.
    The next 1000 numbers called could easily have shown Kerry up by 9. It is not a statistically significant difference, hence, it’s a tie.

    Reply
  15. reignman on

    Um…a 3.5 margin of error w/ Bush a point ahead suggests that Bush has a small lead of Kerry, because the probability of that being so is larger than the probability of Kerry being in the lead. I guess it’s a virtual tie, but I don’t understand why you would call the poll a tie.

    Reply
  16. Jeff on

    Can you smell it friends?
    The smell of Democratic victory in November.
    I mean, after a $50 million advertising blitz by Bush in August. To Kerry’s blackout.
    After a smear by swift boat liars.
    After an overtly negative party convention.
    If they lead us at all, it’s by one or two percent.
    In reality, I think they are behind or we are tied.
    Now the Democrats have their gloves off.
    Now Bush’s AWOL story is coming to light.
    Now Kitty Kelly’s, Bob Graham’s book is coming out.
    What does this all mean?
    Bye-bye Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply
  17. Bel on

    Former Democrat..
    Based on your definition of repubs, how do they differ from the democrats? You seem to be implying that only repubs have these values but you need to know that this is absolutely untrue. You have spent too much time in the repub bubble and have gone thru a sad conversion.
    I do not know any democrats who are not hard working, who do not pay taxes, who are not christian minded, who do not believe in the tenets on which the country was founded.. and if there are any dems who do not share in the values above, I am sure there are just as many repubs who do not share these values either.
    It would do you plenty good to burst the GOP bubble and start to review the issues from all sides.
    As much as you seem to imply the righteousness of the repubs, you must also know that truth and credibility are scarce commodities in the GOP camp also. Have a look.

    Reply
  18. gabby hayes on

    Former Democrat?
    Or current Bush shill?
    Another one of the online goobers who thinks posting spam that someone else wrote. That story has been around the world a few times. All the Bushies who don’t watch Fox or listen to Rush all day, send emails with crap like that on it.

    Reply
  19. Doofus on

    “former democrat”: I suggest that you take yourself and your Zell Miller-approved RNC talking points over to the Free Republic blog, where you and they clearly belong. We’re really not interested in that kind of garbage here.

    Reply
  20. warp resident on

    Should clarify: An LV screen could presumably ask “Did you vote in the last election AND are you likely to vote this time. However, if the constraint is to reduce the sample size to match % voter turnout the first to be tossed out will be people who answered NO/NO or NO/YES.

    Reply
  21. jean hauptman on

    I figured they were skidding when Cheney
    came out with shrill scare tactics
    And O’Reilly re-introduced Swiftboat Satan
    O’Neill last night.

    Reply
  22. Jeff on

    I just did my own analysis of the Gallup poll.
    Using their own internals:
    With each candidate receiving 90% support among their base (7% voting for the other candidate).
    Also, with Kerry actually ahead of Bush among independants: 49% to 46%.
    Here is how it ACTUALLY breaks down, if one assumes that the same number of people vote in 2004, which voted in 2000 (how about that for a LIKELY VOTER).
    In 2000, of all those who voted – 39% were Dems; 35% were Republicans; 26% were independants.
    Therefore using these numbers and the numbers supplied in the Gallup poll internals:
    Kerry 50.3%
    Bush 46. 2%
    Is it me, or do you think someone is messing with these numbers?

    Reply
  23. warp resident on

    LV screens will always bias in favor of republicans as they are usually more motivated than dems. Fortunately for dems they are outnumbered. If voter turnout is unusually high (and there’s no way the LV number can predict that since they are based on historic data) then the polls will be significantly off – which I agree is good, it keeps democrats more motivated. A landslide will be so sweet.
    My choice for K/E slogan: THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO FEAR IS BUSH/CHENEY!

    Reply
  24. Les on

    It is hard to measure motivation of the voters. I think the closeness of the last election, and the polarized electorate will work both sides into a frenzy to get out the vote. We will see a reversal of the trend of lower voter turnout this year.
    Frankly, I am glad to see Bush pull ahead in the polls. This is not going to be easy, so we have to work harder if we want the best results. The previously unthinkable massive turnout could change the political landscape as dramatically as in years past when Presidential Candidates had coatails.
    Does anyone doubt that Bush deserves to have the rug pulled out from under his feet more than any President in history? Not just a loss, but a BIG loss. Why not hope for that? After all, they have earned it.

    Reply
  25. cw on

    Time for a good post explaining LV models. You’ve said in the past that they become much more accurate as the election approaches. It seems likely that news stories will increasingly favor LV results.
    Yet it seems possible to me that they may be biased republican right up to the election. People’s statements about what they will do are always less reliable than measuring their actual actions. Thus, I would imagine that an important predictor of LV’s is whether they voted in the last presidential election. But the last election was a time of demoralization for dems, and this ought to be one for repubs (I know, we’ll see). But if prior voting figures strongly in LV screens, then I think their predictions could easily be off this time around… Right up to election day.
    What’s your take on LV models? What do they typically incorporate? Why do you say they get better closer to the election? Are they based entirely on respondent predictions or on prior behavior?
    Tx
    Charlie

    Reply
  26. John Mcc. on

    Every silver cloud has a dark intrnals lining…
    ICR
    The Race for Independents
    The ICR press release of August 14th reported a substantive lead for John Kerry among registered Independents. This was in sharp contrast to August, 2000, when the last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, trailed in this important population by nearly 10 points.
    However, since that time there has been a sharp erosion of preference for Kerry amongst this critical population. In fact, within this population Bush now holds a significant lead (47.7% to 36.9% with a 8% margin of error), in sharp contrast to one month ago:

    Reply
  27. standa on

    Edwards Calls Cheney Remark Dishonorable and un-American
    CLARKSBURG, W.Va. – Democrat John Edwards urged President Bush on Wednesday to renounce Vice President Dick Cheney’s statement that the United States risks another terrorist attack if voters make the wrong election choice, calling the warning dishonorable and un-American.
    “This statement by the vice president of the United States was intended to divide us,” Edwards said. “It was calculated to divide us on an issue of safety and security for the American people. It’s wrong and it’s un-American.”
    Edwards made his comments to supporters while campaigning in West Virginia, a day after Cheney said at a town hall meeting in Iowa, “It’s absolutely essential that eight weeks from today, on Nov. 2, we make the right choice, because if we make the wrong choice then the danger is that we’ll get hit again and we’ll be hit in a way that will be devastating from the standpoint of the United States.”
    Bush declined to comment on Cheney’s statement when asked about it Wednesday at the White House.
    Of course Bush would not comment because he is a coward.
    Way to go Edwards ! make these slimeballs accountable for their sordid actions and behavior.
    I cannot wait for the debates …
    Kerry going to take Bushie boy to the woodshed and Edwards is going to verbally deconstruct Cheney.

    Reply
  28. Armando on

    This is weird phraseology “Based on registered voters who are certain they will vote, 48.2 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry, and 4.1 percent for others or undecided.”
    So the screen is self identifying – There 90% of self-identified GOP said they were certain to vote. 80% of self ID’d Dems, and now over 70% of self ID’d Independents.
    May I say that I am skeptical all around. All these people certain to vote – pshaw.
    The other thing was the surge in Indies (self ID’d) certain to vote – well I think those are O’Reilly Indies, meaning Republicans.
    Srry, Ruy, throw it out. Funny looking poll.

    Reply

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