George Bush leads John Kerry 48-46 percent among nation-wide LV’s, with 3 percent for Nader, 2 percent for none of these and 2 percent not sure/refused, according to a Harris Interactive Poll conducted 9/20-26.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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December 5: A Field Guide to MAGA Excuses for the Toddler President
Don’t know if this post from New York about Trump’s immaturity will get me onto the White House list of enemy media, but there’s a chance.
Veteran political journalist Jonathan Martin has a new rant at Politico Magazine with the self-explanatory headline: “The President Who Never Grew Up.” Nothing he said is the least bit revelatory; it’s all about things we know Donald Trump has done and said but lined up in a way that illustrates how very much the president resembles a child, and a not-very-well-behaved child at that. A sample:
Trump is living his best life in this second and final turn in the White House. Coming up on one year back in power, he’s turned the office into an adult fantasy camp, a Tom Hanks-in-Big, ice-cream-for-dinner escapade posing as a presidency.
The brazen corruption, near-daily vulgarity and handing out pardons like lollipops is impossible to ignore and deserves the scorn of history. Yet how the president is spending much of his time reveals his flippant attitude toward his second term. This is free-range Trump. And the country has never seen such an indulgent head of state.
Yes, he’s one-part Viktor Orbán, making a mockery of the rule of law and wielding state power to reward friends and punish foes while eroding institutions.
But he’s also a 12-year-old boy: There’s fun trips, lots of screen time, playing with toys, reliable kids’ menus and cool gifts under the tree — no socks or trapper keepers.
Martin is just scratching the surface here. He doesn’t even mention the president’s inability to admit or accept responsibility for mistakes, which is reminiscent of an excuse-making child, or his tendency to fabricate his own set of “facts” like an incessant daydreamer bored by kindergarten. Now to be clear, the essentially juvenile nature of many of Trump’s preoccupations and impulses has struck just about everybody who’s forced to watch him closely and isn’t inclined by party or ideology to jump into the sandbox with him to share the fun. But since he’s the president, it’s more seemly for critics to focus on problems deeper than immaturity. There are the many worrisome “isms” he is prone to embrace or reflect (nativism, racism, sexism, authoritarianism, jingoism, cronyism, nepotism). And there’s also his habit of surrounding himself with cartoon villains like Pete Hegseth, Kristi Noem, Kash Patel, Stephen Miller, and J.D. Vance who are the stuff of grown-up nightmares.
But still, I find myself wondering regularly how Trump’s own followers process his rather blatant lack of seriousness about the most serious job on the planet. If there’s such a thing as negative gravitas, the toddler president has it in abundance. So what are the excuses MAGA folk make for him? There are five major rationalizations that come to mind:
Trolling the liberals
Whenever he says something especially outrageous or embarrassing, we are quickly told by his defenders that he’s just having an enormous joke at the expense of humorless liberals. This dates back to pro-Trump journalist Salena Zito’s famous 2016 dictum that his followers “take him seriously but not literally.” Where you draw the line between the stuff he means and the stuff he’s just kidding about can obviously be adjusted to cover any lapses in taste or honesty he might betray. The “he’s just trolling the libs” defense is a useful bit of jiujitsu as it happens. It turns the self-righteousness of his critics into foolishness while neutering any fears that whatever nasty or malicious thing Trump has said reflects his true nature and inclinations. You see this tactic a lot with Trumpworld social-media takes on mass deportation that exhibit what some have called “performative cruelty” in depicting ICE violence against immigrants, which predictably shock liberals who are then mocked for not understanding it’s all a shuck. Meanwhile, the most radical of Trump’s MAGA fans bask in the administration’s appropriation of their worst impulses.
Playing chess, not checkers
A second rationalization you hear from Trump’s defenders, particularly when he says or does something that makes no sense, is to argue that he’s operating on multiple levels that include some higher strategies his critics simply don’t have the mental bandwidth to grasp. If, for example, he insults a foreign leader, he may secretly be setting off a diplomatic chain reaction that results in foreign-policy gains somewhere else. Similarly, if he defames federal judges, Democratic elected officials, or mainstream journalists, he may simply be trying to manipulate public opinion in a sophisticated way to overcome those who thwart or undermine his substantive agenda. Trump himself set the template for the “chess not checkers” theory by telling us his most incoherent speeches and statements reflect a novel rhetorical style he calls “the weave.” You do have to admire his chutzpah in telling people they simply aren’t smart enough to follow him as he fails to complete thoughts and sentences.
He’s a man of the people, and the people are as childish as he is
An even more common excuse for Trump’s worst traits is that he is focused on communicating with the people, not the media or other snooty elites. If he’s crude or impulsive or irrational, so, too, are the people. As one liberal writer ruefully admitted of Trump circa 2016:
He liked fast food and sports and, most importantly, he shared all their gripes and complaints and articulated them in the same terms some used themselves. For all his crowing about his money and showing off, he really didn’t put on airs. He was just like them.
And he behaved just like they would if they were given a billion dollars and unlimited power. Thus his childishness and even his cruelty could be construed as efforts to meld minds with the sovereign public or, at least, key parts of it. This became most explicit in 2024 when Trump’s crudeness and fury about diversity were transformed into a shrew pitch for the support of the “manosphere” and the masses of politically volatile younger men who spend much of their lives there. It could even serve as an excuse for his destruction of the White House as we’ve known it. Gold plating of everything in sight and the construction of a huge, garish ballroom might disgust aesthetes and history buffs with postgraduate degrees and no common sense. But with the White House set to become a venue for UFC fights, why not go big and loud? Nobody elected architecture experts to run the country, did they?
Trump is an insurgent leader with an insurgent style
A parallel excuse for Trump’s uncouthness is that transgressions are central to his mission. He’s there to overturn the Establishment, not respect its silly rules of what’s appropriate for presidents. His distractors ruined the country, so who are they to complain when it requires someone unconventional to set things aright? Trump campaigned in 2016, 2020, and 2024 as a disrupter and thrilled his followers by refusing to be domesticated in office. When returned to power most recently, he hit Washington like a gale-force wind defying all precedents and expressing an exasperated public’s disgust with the status quo and the people who led it. So why would anyone expect this Robespierre to play by the rules of Versailles? That’s not who he is and not what he was elected to do.
He’s saving America, so he should be able to do any damn thing he wants
The president himself has best articulated the standard by which he judges himself and expects to be judged by his followers, and by history, in a Truth Social post this past February: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.” From the MAGA point of view, the 47th president is bending history, reversing a long trend toward national decline, and raising the economic aspirations and moral values of America to heights thought to be long lost. Perhaps the most powerful rationalization for Trump’s many excesses ever written was the famous 2016 essay by Michael Anton comparing those supporting Trump’s challenge to Hillary Clinton to the desperate and self-sacrificing passengers of the hijacked September 11 flight that brought the plane down by rushing the terrorists in the cockpit:
[I]f you don’t try, death is certain. To compound the metaphor: a Hillary Clinton presidency is Russian Roulette with a semi-auto. With Trump, at least you can spin the cylinder and take your chances.
It’s Trump, warts and all, or the abyss, to many Trump fans, today as in 2016. So if he wants to have some boyish fun while he’s saving America, and perhaps civilization, who are we to deny him?
Smooth, the best you can do is point out that Kerry confused Treblinka with Lubyanka? It’s surely no small deal to the parties involved, but (1) most Americans didn’t catch the gaffe and won’t cry wolf over it once it’s explained, and (2) at least Kerry didn’t confuse Osama bin Laden with Saddam Hussein. You tell me which gaffe we’ll still be paying for in years to come.
Gee, our friend Smoothie sounds…almost rattled, all of a sudden:-)
—
Maybe you will join the distinguished club of Hugh Hewitt , Townhall.com and Lucianne.com now? I’ve just ventured into the Conservative Echo Chambers of Horrors, and virtually all the journalists and bloggers — with the above mentioned exceptions — reluctantly conclude Kerry did better than expected whereas the Chimp wasn’t on top of his game.
MARCU$
thanks bill.
by the way, i think a great meme about this debate should be:
“President Bush looked lost, senator Kerry looked President.”
Only watched a few minutes of the debate since it started 2:00 AM GMT. However, it seems virtually all Internet pundits (Instapundit, PoliPundit, Kausfiles, the NRO Corner among the Kerry-bashers; Sullivan, Drezner, Josh Marshall on the center/left) think Kerry won on points!!! Not a perfect performance, but independent voters who thought they “knew” Kerry from the Swift Vets for Truth ads etc. will be pleasantly surprised. And it seems the focus was mostly on “Shrub’s” track record rather than Kerry’s senate votes.
It is way too early for all the gloom-and-doom predictions (or gloating predictions of a “landslide” by the other side) to start. If Kerry does well in the remaining two debates and if the Democrats can focus relentlessly on this Administration’s track record rather than irrelevant issues like who did what in Vietnam, anything can happen. But the real wild card is Iraq and Afghanistan. A dose of bad news may finally sink “Shrub’s” credibility. Or Osama bin Laden might be captured a few weeks before the elections… We just don’t know.
MARCU$
a little off topic, but i need to vent. IT took oreilly about 1 minute to start distorting the truth on his show today. He only sited the battleground polls in his tpm that showed bush winning. he ignored all the polls in pa and mi that show kerry winning. unbelievable.
Folks asked about reactions to Republican efforts to squash new voter registrations. This morning’s NY Times had an editorial condemning Repub Sec. of State in both Ohio and Colorado. Of course, NYT is not the ‘real world’ and folks must get this message to the local areas, but it’s a start. T.J.
Rui Tavares, try Air America http://www.airamericaradio.com/
I know you can listen to it there and also they have good comments. Without broad band you might not be able to watch it….
I suspect that the Michigan poll is an outlier. America Coming Together has pulled its staffers out of Michigan (I am told) and reassigned them to other states where the need is greater. I think that this is a sign that ACT is confident.
euzoius, Coldeye et al,
Some really smart people are virtually guaranteeing major legal battles in both OH and FL after Nov 2.
Gallup isn’t a polling firm, it’s a marketing tool.
Rasmussen Sep 30
K B
National 46 48
FL 49 48
MI 46 45
MN 47 46
OH 47 48
PA 49 45
I’m with Coldeye–where, indeed, is the outrage at these multiplying stories detailing various nefarious activities by these battleground Republican secretaries of state? Inventing out of whole cloth the most preposterous technicalities, technicalities beyond one’s imagining: registration paper being “too thin”, etc. Republican elected officials are operating as openly anti-democratic with no backlash accruing to them whatever. Are there just too many stories out there for these to break through? Is this type of chicanery just “expected” by the public in post 2000 America? One certainly hopes that our Republican friends are sowing the whirlwind with their disdain for democracy.
UT going for K/E? More lawn K/E signs than B/C in UT? Must be heresy there in UT.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on it, but there’s lots of folklore about things like this having predictive value. Ex: So called “barber poll”. Ask barbers around the country what they’re hearing. In 92 they predicted Bush pere, but Clinton won.
Then there’s the groundhog’s shadow and aunt martha’s rheumatism.
Rasmussen just reported Bush-Kerry tied in sixteen battleground states. Bush had been up by two points last week.
Coldeye, Regarding:
“Am I the only one who is just getting sick and tired of these games the Republicans are playing to supress voter registration or turnout, in places like Florida, Ohio, and Colorado? Look, I understand the need to prevent fraud but these little games don’t have any connection to that. They are more like the old poll taxes and literacy tests – the real purpose is to keep legitimate voters for the other side out of the process, and that’s just wrong.”
Those are some valid areas of concern for Dems; However, if newspaper reports are to be believed, Dems are putting themselves in a position to commit massive fraud unlike we’ve never seen before. Already fraudulent voter registrations have been uncovered in:
1. FLA, where NY voters, up to 20,000, were found to be registered in NY & FLA
2. WIS, The found a few dead Dems registered to vote
3. NEV, More dead Dems registered
4. OH, absentee Dems voting twice
5. IA, More Dem absentees voting twice
There have been other reports, but I can’t recall them off the top of my head. These alleged frauds appear to be committed by certain Dem leading organs in these states.
Alternatively, I have seen reports of Rep Secy of State discarding legitimate Dem voters cards. Who
knows if they are just throwing out forged ballots or what the truth is.
I just get the impression we may have 15 Floridas this year with all the lawsuits and recounts, if all these reports of fraud are to be believed.
First it’s Gallup, second it’s not a person, it’s a polling firm.
Given that all these polls are either tie or Bush +3, Bush probably has a one or two point lead. Given the DNC’s superior registration efforts, even one of the top guy working for the Bush campaign says that he’ll need a 5 point lead on election day to win.
Also of interest is that Rasmussen’s tracking poll has shown no pro-Bush drift at all in the weeks leading up to the debates. He has Bush consistently up on average of +2. Even the pollsters will tell you that tracking polls are much better indicators than 3-day snapshot polls. So Bush is leading by 2-3 heading into the debates. This is bad for an incumbent, horrible for a war-time incumbent, and beyond dismal for a war-time incumbent with no major domestic initiatives and a lackluster economy under his belt. Add in that many more would swing to Kerry if he would just show more clarity and leadership (Rasmussen reports today that 17% of voters are still persuadable, LA Times puts the number at 20%).
The stage is set for Kerry to swing things back his way during the debates. One thing he’s got to do is explain clearly his vote to authorize presidential authority for war. It’s simple, really -just say “Look, I think the president should have big stick when negotiating with tyrants to disarm. But I NEVER would have authorized such an incompetant rush to actual war, without good intelligence and a plan for keeping the peace. And I never would have administered the occupation with such pathetic incompetene.” Bush will reply with a smirk and some sound bite like “Well I’m glad he cleared that up”, but it won’t stick because it really does clear the issue up once and for all.
By the way, there is a transcript of Edward’s Imus interview on MSNBC.COM. It’s fun reading – he really is a charming person. Almost makes one whimsical for a switch in the ticket – or an Edward’s run in four or eight years.
I think the lead in Gallop’s OH poll showing RV for Kerry by 4 pts vs. down in LV reflects all the new registrations in OH. Our registration deadline is monday, October 4th at 9 am, so we are putting forth one more great push this weekend to get people registered. After that, its get out the vote.
polling results from ogden, salt lake, provo
K/E yard signs and bumper stickers 4 to 1 over B/C
Democrats are outregistering new voters in Ohio by margins of 10-1. These new registered voters may be a reason Kerry leads among registered but not likely (you can’t be a likely voter if you’ve never voted, in most polling models). However, the Ohio Republican Secretary of State has for weeks tried to disqualify most of the new registrations, on the grounds that they are on paper that is too thin and might get mangled in the mail. On this bizaare basis, he even tried to disqualify registrations contained in an envelope, or those that were hand delivered. And he’s trying to disqualify voters who don’t vote in the precinct in which they live. This makes no sense at all, because absentee ballots are allowed, and they are received and recorded in the state capital, far from where people live.
Am I the only one who is just getting sick and tired of these games the Republicans are playing to supress voter registration or turnout, in places like Florida, Ohio, and Colorado? Look, I understand the need to prevent fraud but these little games don’t have any connection to that. They are more like the old poll taxes and literacy tests – the real purpose is to keep legitimate voters for the other side out of the process, and that’s just wrong.
Interesting that Gallop has Kerry leading in OH in RVs. Someone here suggested he might be throwing a bone to his critics. Awful that we have to speculate like this, but that’s what he gets for putting his own credibiltiy in doubt with specious methodology. If that lead however, reflects something real and measurable in the real world, then it could spell real trouble for Bush.
Kerry has been up in every single non-artisan poll conducted in michigan for the last 3 months. Every single poll. Even before that, there are only 1 or 2 polls where he was behind by a point or 2. Even During the Republiucan convention.
The DFP poll is probably an outlier. My guess is that Kerry is up by 2-3 points. Given the Arab American vote aainst Bush and the huge union strength in Michigan. Kerry should carry it by 5-6 points.
This was Harris’ online poll, remember. They weight demographically and also use “propensity weighting”, which adjusts the results for likelihood to be online vs. offline.
Todays Det free press poll for michigan has kerry’s once comfortable lead down to 2 points, within the moe. DFP claims that as discussion has shifted to iraq over last 10 days, support for kerry has DECREASED among woman.
What gives??