Having closely watched congressional developments over the last few weeks, I’ve concluded that one much-discussed Democratic tactic for dealing with Trump 2.0 is probably mistaken, as I explained at New York:
No one is going to rank Mike Johnson among the great arm-twisting Speakers of the House, like Henry Clay, Tom Reed, Sam Rayburn, or even Nancy Pelosi. Indeed, he still resembles Winston Churchill’s description of Clement Atlee as “a modest man with much to be modest about.”
But nonetheless, in the space of two weeks, Johnson has managed to get two huge and highly controversial measures through the closely divided House: a budget resolution that sets the stage for enactment of Donald Trump’s entire legislative agenda in one bill, then an appropriations bill keeping the federal government operating until the end of September while preserving the highly contested power of Trump and his agents to cut and spend wherever they like.
Despite all the talk of divisions between the hard-core fiscal extremists of the House Freedom Caucus and swing-district “moderate” Republicans, Johnson lost just one member — the anti-spending fanatic and lone wolf Thomas Massie of Kentucky — from the ranks of House Republicans on both votes. As a result, he needed not even a whiff of compromise with House Democrats (only one of them, the very Trump-friendly Jared Golden of Maine, voted for one of the measures, the appropriations bill).
Now there are a host of factors that made this impressive achievement possible. The budget-resolution vote was, as Johnson kept pointing out to recalcitrant House Republicans, a blueprint for massive domestic-spending cuts, not the cuts themselves. Its language was general and vague enough to give Republicans plausible deniability. And even more deviously, the appropriations measure was made brief and unspecific in order to give Elon Musk and Russ Vought the maximum leeway to whack spending and personnel to levels far below what the bill provided (J.D. Vance told House Republicans right before the vote that the administration reserved the right to ignore the spending the bill mandated entirely, which pleased the government-hating HFC folk immensely). And most important, on both bills Johnson was able to rely on personal lobbying from key members of the administration, most notably the president himself, who had made it clear any congressional Republican who rebelled might soon be looking down the barrel of a Musk-financed MAGA primary opponent. Without question, much of the credit Johnson is due for pulling off these votes should go to his White House boss, whose wish is his command.
But the lesson Democrats should take from these events is that they cannot just lie in the weeds and expect the congressional GOP to self-destruct owing to its many divisions and rivalries. In a controversial New York Times op-ed last month, Democratic strategist James Carville argued Democrats should “play dead” in order to keep a spotlight on Republican responsibility for the chaos in Washington, D.C., which might soon extend to Congress:
“Let the Republicans push for their tax cuts, their Medicaid cuts, their food stamp cuts. Give them all the rope they need. Then let dysfunction paralyze their House caucus and rupture their tiny majority. Let them reveal themselves as incapable of governing and, at the right moment, start making a coordinated, consistent argument about the need to protect Medicare, Medicaid, worker benefits and middle-class pocketbooks. Let the Republicans crumble, let the American people see it, and wait until they need us to offer our support.”
Now to be clear, Congressional GOP dysfunction could yet break out; House and Senate Republicans have struggled constantly to stay on the same page on budget strategy, the depth of domestic-spending cuts, and the extent of tax cuts. But as the two big votes in the House show, their three superpowers are (1) Trump’s death grip on them all, (2) the willingness of Musk and Vought and Trump himself to take the heat for unpopular policies, and (3) a capacity for lying shamelessly about what they are doing and what it will cost. Yes, ultimately, congressional Republicans will face voters in November 2026. But any fear of these elections is mitigated by the realization that thanks to the landscape of midterm races, probably nothing they can do will save control of the House or forfeit control of the Senate. So Republicans have a lot of incentives to follow Trump in a high-speed smash-and-grab operation that devastates the public sector, awards their billionaire friends with tax cuts, and wherever possible salts the earth to make a revival of good government as difficult as possible. Democrats have few ways to stop this nihilistic locomotive. But they may be fooling themselves if they assume it’s going off the rails without their active involvement.
I am wondering how much power the media holds over the interpretation of the polls. In the article we see author James Camey showing almost insignificant number changes and attributing them to a Bush victory. It’s too bad so few people understand how a poll or percentages work. I’m not even sure my understanding is very strong. If anyone does have a firm understanding of the numbers, how they are achieved, and displayed, I would love to hear it. Thanks.
http://www.maxlogan.com/esquire.0829.htm
The above link is a nice summation of the administration by Ron Reagan. Its long but its worth the read. Its worth sharing with everyone you know too.. esp. those who support Bush.
Cheers
I have quietly read your blog for about 2 weeks.I also watched, in disgust, about an hour of the Republican convention.Lies,lies and more lies and I am ever amazed at the glazed-over look of adoration that I see on these “faith”-blind followers of our present regime. Mayor Rudy came awfully close to a cult leader’s remark when he reiterated the saying”if you’re not with us then you’re with the terrorists!”I feel nothing but contempt for him and McCain…
“To counter Republican attacks, the political-action wing of MoveOn.org launched a $3.2 million convention-week television-ad blitz yesterday — its largest buy to date,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “The ads, featuring former Bush supporters who have turned against the president, will run on cable TV in Florida, Ohio and seven other battleground states.”
I have seen these ads and they are great! They also printed them in the New York Times today. The blitz starts! Go to moveon.org and you can view the ads if you are not in a swing state.
” Kerry clearly benefits whenever the debate moves back to real issues.”
And when it comes to the debates this is where Kerry has him. He has nothing to say as his four years have been a disaster. All he can do is to slime Kerry with a bunch of lies and use Faith to devide our country..
Dagman
Is it possible that its appears as tho Kerry has slipped because of repub convention being in the air?
Could it also have been because the pollster didnt take a corresponding poll since Kerry and others gave a response to the swifters?
Maybe a combination of all the above and other issues. I think that we will know a bit more in the next two weeks but this all depends on how the repub convention goes and how much presence it creates within the media.
In the meantime, the analyses must continue
Cheers
Regardless of which polls we look at, Kerry has slipped. It looks to me as if the slippage is about 4 points across the various polls. I blame this all on the Swift Boat Liars for Fiction, but not for the obvious reasons. I suspect about half of this movement (2 points) is due to people who previously supported Kerry, but no longer do because they are influenced by the garbage. But the other 2 points are the result of the press frenzy on this issue unlike anything we have ever seen. It has sucked all the other news (economy, IRAQ) out of the news cycle just like a giant fuel air bomb sucks all the oxygen out of the air. I think the slight up tick in Bush’s numbers are simply because the bad news (and there has been plenty) about the economy and IRAQ have been completely drowned out – since the bad news has stopped – things must be getting better. Regardless of whether these ads continue, the news cycle is over. Kerry clearly benefits whenever the debate moves back to real issues.
Sky..
“he works his tail off”. You know, this is the most important realisation that you have mentioned and I share your view on this. The guys seems to be running on extra energy.. maybe solar and wind… but you are right, he seems to be working his tail off.. and its something that bothers me because I read so many other blogs where people are asking him to do more… attack more, be more aggressive.. smile more.. just do more and that makes me a tad upset..
Upset because I think that the rank and filers need to work just as hard as kerry.. I think edwards need more publicity.. I think that dem senators and congress persons need to do more… they need to work just as hard as kerry but i am not feeling that as yet..
I like that the dems are going to match dollar for dollar any donations made to the campaign.. thats a gallant effort.
But you are right.. Kerry works hard. I am also happy to know that you too have come to accept kerry’s demeanor. I remember months ago when he was just considered an ugly man. In recent months however, I have encountered numerous people who have come to your realisations also. However you are the only one who says that he works sooo hard.
I think Kerry is warming to people’s hearts. I think he is also getting some sympathetic second glances derived from the Bush sponsored campaign. I think people are now recognising that he has a passion to rescue this country from that flip-flopper george bush.
I hope milllions more will come to your realisation also.. and real soon.
Cheers
Let them have their couple of days…I just had a revelation: looking at the photo gallery on Johnkerry.com, I was struck by how MUCH I like this guy. He’s handsome, intelligent, a real hero, thoughtful, and he works his tail off. We’ve haven’t settled, we’re blessed with a great candidate. And the crowds greeting him are huge! Godspeed John Kerry.
> could it be possible that mccain has started to
> campaign for 2008? creating his platform by
> using bush?
>
> Posted by Bel at August 30, 2004 08:40 PM
That’s what TNR says. But he’d be 72, and I think that that’s a little old. But I guess that he’s the strongest person the GOP will have. Either him or Jeb.
I find it highly amusing that Republicans (and Mickey Kaus) are crowing about a few polls showing their candidate breaking into the upper 40’s. I guess we better throw in the towel, Kerry is toast.
Who wants to vote for a “urinal sticker” ?
could it be possible that mccain has started to campaign for 2008? creating his platform by using bush?
I no longer expect any quality out of McCain… a man is known by the company he keeps.
In an interview broadcasted tonight on ABC McCain called the Swift Boat Liars ads “dishonorable and dishonest”, but when asked directly if they were false talked only of fading memories and the fog of war.
So much for the Straight Talk Express.
Today on the “News hour” Jim Lehrer called McCain “de-facto running mate”. Is it a surprise that will change the course of the election?
I really cannot grip McCain.. how can this guy allow himself to be suckered in this way? Mindless to me… brainless too.
Well, John Mccain speeks tonight. What a dissapointment he is! After Bush calls his wife a drug addict and whore his child a bastard and discredits McCain’s military record he can still support this guy. He deserves a urnial sticker( “PLEASE PISS ON ME SOME MORE MR. PRESIDENT”)
So far, I am not reading anything very convincing or new in the speeches. I am only hearing a softening stance (flip-flopping) from Bush. Have to wait and see what else is in the bag.
cheers
In regards to Nader, he got a little under 3% of the popular vote in 2000. I doubt he gets more than 1% this time. So Jeff is right.
Same poll:
49% think going to war in Iraq was a mistake.
52% think America is on the wrong track.
53% think it’s time for someone else.
These are hardly anything for Bush to be crowing about.
Second, when will these idiots stop polling with Nader in the picture, given that he won’t even be on half the ballots. Including most battlegrounds where it matters.