An August 24-26 Time magazine survey of likely voters found John Kerry and George Bush tied 46%-46% in a two man race and Bush 46%, Kerry 44% and Nader 5% in a 3 way race.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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January 27: 2024 California Senate Race Gets More Interesting With Schiff’s Entry
Like most California political junkies, I’m already looking forward to a vibrant 2024 Senate race. I wrote up the latest development at New York:
In the conservative imagination, California is sort of an evil empire of leftism. It’s where white people have been relegated to a minority for decades; where tree-hugging hippies still frolic; where Hollywood and Big Tech work 24/7 to undermine sturdy American-folk virtues; where rampaging unions and arrogant bureaucrats make it too expensive for regular people to live.
But in truth California’s dominant Democratic Party has as many mild-mannered moderates as it does fiery progressives. One of them, Dianne Feinstein, has held a Senate seat for over 30 years. As the 89-year-old political icon moves toward an almost certain retirement in 2024 (though she now says she won’t announce her intention until next year), another ideological moderate has just announced a bid to succeed her. Los Angeles congressman Adam Schiff, though, has an asset most centrist Democrats (those not named Clinton or Biden, anyway) can’t claim: the rabid hatred of Donald Trump–loving Republicans, giving him the sort of partisan street cred even the most rigorous progressives might envy.
It’s why Schiff begins his 2024 Senate race with something of a strategic advantage. The first-announced candidate in the contest, Congresswoman Katie Porter (also from greater L.A.), is a progressive favorite and more or less Elizabeth Warren’s protégé as a vocal enemy of corporate malfeasance. Another of Schiff’s House colleagues, Oakland-based Barbara Lee, has told people she plans a Senate run as well; Lee is a lefty icon dating back to her lonely vote against the initial War on Terror authorization following September 11. And waiting in the wings is still another member of California’s House delegation, Silicon Valley–based Ro Khanna, who is closely associated with Bernie Sanders and his two presidential campaigns.
Obviously, in a Senate race featuring multiple progressives, the national-security-minded Schiff (who voted for the Iraq war authorization and the Patriot Act early in his House career) might have a distinct “lane,” particularly if he draws an endorsement from Feinstein. (Schiff is already suggesting his campaign has her “blessing.”) But he may poach some progressive votes as well by emphasizing the enemies he’s made. Indeed, his campaign’s first video is mostly a cavalcade of conservatives (especially Donald J. Trump) attacking him.
It’s probably not a coincidence that Schiff is announcing his Senate bid immediately following his expulsion from the House Intelligence Committee by Speaker Kevin McCarthy for his alleged misconduct in investigating Russia’s links with Trump and his campaign (and in making the case for Trump’s impeachment). Schiff was also a steady prosecutorial presence on the January 6 committee that McCarthy and most Republicans boycotted).
Complicating the contest immeasurably is California’s Top Two primary election system. Schiff and his Democratic rivals will not be battling for a party primary win but for a spot in the 2024 general election, given to the top two primary finishers regardless of party affiliation. The Golden State’s Republican Party is so weak that it might not be able to find a candidate able to make the top two in a Senate primary; two Democrats competed in two recent competitive Senate general elections in California (in 2016, when Kamala Harris defeated Loretta Sanchez, and in 2018, when Feinstein trounced Kevin DeLeon). If that’s the case, though, it’s unclear which Democrat might have the edge in attracting Republicans. Porter’s campaign is circulating a poll showing she’d beat Schiff in a hypothetical general election because Republicans really hate Schiff despite his more moderate voting record.
For all the uncertainties about the 2024 Senate field, it is clear that the two announced Democratic candidates will wage a close battle in one arena: campaign dollars. Both Schiff and Porter are legendary fundraisers, though Porter had to dip deeply into her stash of resources to fend off a tougher-than-expected Republican challenge last November. Big remaining questions are whether Lee can finance a viable race in this insanely expensive state with its many media markets, and whether Khanna, with his national Sanders connections and local Silicon Valley donor base, enters the contest. There are racial, gender, and geographical variables too: Until Harris became vice-president, California had long been represented by two Democratic woman from the Bay Area. With Los Angeles–based Alex Padilla now occupying Harris’s old seat, 2024 could produce a big power shift to the south and two male senators.
In any event, nobody is waiting around for Feinstein to make her retirement official before angling for her seat, which means a Senate race that won’t affect the partisan balance of the chamber at all (barring some wild Republican upset) will soak up a lot of attention and money for a long time. At this early point, Schiff’s positioning as the moderate that Republicans fear and despise looks sure to keep him in the spotlight.
I am wondering how much power the media holds over the interpretation of the polls. In the article we see author James Camey showing almost insignificant number changes and attributing them to a Bush victory. It’s too bad so few people understand how a poll or percentages work. I’m not even sure my understanding is very strong. If anyone does have a firm understanding of the numbers, how they are achieved, and displayed, I would love to hear it. Thanks.
http://www.maxlogan.com/esquire.0829.htm
The above link is a nice summation of the administration by Ron Reagan. Its long but its worth the read. Its worth sharing with everyone you know too.. esp. those who support Bush.
Cheers
I have quietly read your blog for about 2 weeks.I also watched, in disgust, about an hour of the Republican convention.Lies,lies and more lies and I am ever amazed at the glazed-over look of adoration that I see on these “faith”-blind followers of our present regime. Mayor Rudy came awfully close to a cult leader’s remark when he reiterated the saying”if you’re not with us then you’re with the terrorists!”I feel nothing but contempt for him and McCain…
“To counter Republican attacks, the political-action wing of MoveOn.org launched a $3.2 million convention-week television-ad blitz yesterday — its largest buy to date,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “The ads, featuring former Bush supporters who have turned against the president, will run on cable TV in Florida, Ohio and seven other battleground states.”
I have seen these ads and they are great! They also printed them in the New York Times today. The blitz starts! Go to moveon.org and you can view the ads if you are not in a swing state.
” Kerry clearly benefits whenever the debate moves back to real issues.”
And when it comes to the debates this is where Kerry has him. He has nothing to say as his four years have been a disaster. All he can do is to slime Kerry with a bunch of lies and use Faith to devide our country..
Dagman
Is it possible that its appears as tho Kerry has slipped because of repub convention being in the air?
Could it also have been because the pollster didnt take a corresponding poll since Kerry and others gave a response to the swifters?
Maybe a combination of all the above and other issues. I think that we will know a bit more in the next two weeks but this all depends on how the repub convention goes and how much presence it creates within the media.
In the meantime, the analyses must continue
Cheers
Regardless of which polls we look at, Kerry has slipped. It looks to me as if the slippage is about 4 points across the various polls. I blame this all on the Swift Boat Liars for Fiction, but not for the obvious reasons. I suspect about half of this movement (2 points) is due to people who previously supported Kerry, but no longer do because they are influenced by the garbage. But the other 2 points are the result of the press frenzy on this issue unlike anything we have ever seen. It has sucked all the other news (economy, IRAQ) out of the news cycle just like a giant fuel air bomb sucks all the oxygen out of the air. I think the slight up tick in Bush’s numbers are simply because the bad news (and there has been plenty) about the economy and IRAQ have been completely drowned out – since the bad news has stopped – things must be getting better. Regardless of whether these ads continue, the news cycle is over. Kerry clearly benefits whenever the debate moves back to real issues.
Sky..
“he works his tail off”. You know, this is the most important realisation that you have mentioned and I share your view on this. The guys seems to be running on extra energy.. maybe solar and wind… but you are right, he seems to be working his tail off.. and its something that bothers me because I read so many other blogs where people are asking him to do more… attack more, be more aggressive.. smile more.. just do more and that makes me a tad upset..
Upset because I think that the rank and filers need to work just as hard as kerry.. I think edwards need more publicity.. I think that dem senators and congress persons need to do more… they need to work just as hard as kerry but i am not feeling that as yet..
I like that the dems are going to match dollar for dollar any donations made to the campaign.. thats a gallant effort.
But you are right.. Kerry works hard. I am also happy to know that you too have come to accept kerry’s demeanor. I remember months ago when he was just considered an ugly man. In recent months however, I have encountered numerous people who have come to your realisations also. However you are the only one who says that he works sooo hard.
I think Kerry is warming to people’s hearts. I think he is also getting some sympathetic second glances derived from the Bush sponsored campaign. I think people are now recognising that he has a passion to rescue this country from that flip-flopper george bush.
I hope milllions more will come to your realisation also.. and real soon.
Cheers
Let them have their couple of days…I just had a revelation: looking at the photo gallery on Johnkerry.com, I was struck by how MUCH I like this guy. He’s handsome, intelligent, a real hero, thoughtful, and he works his tail off. We’ve haven’t settled, we’re blessed with a great candidate. And the crowds greeting him are huge! Godspeed John Kerry.
> could it be possible that mccain has started to
> campaign for 2008? creating his platform by
> using bush?
>
> Posted by Bel at August 30, 2004 08:40 PM
That’s what TNR says. But he’d be 72, and I think that that’s a little old. But I guess that he’s the strongest person the GOP will have. Either him or Jeb.
I find it highly amusing that Republicans (and Mickey Kaus) are crowing about a few polls showing their candidate breaking into the upper 40’s. I guess we better throw in the towel, Kerry is toast.
Who wants to vote for a “urinal sticker” ?
could it be possible that mccain has started to campaign for 2008? creating his platform by using bush?
I no longer expect any quality out of McCain… a man is known by the company he keeps.
In an interview broadcasted tonight on ABC McCain called the Swift Boat Liars ads “dishonorable and dishonest”, but when asked directly if they were false talked only of fading memories and the fog of war.
So much for the Straight Talk Express.
Today on the “News hour” Jim Lehrer called McCain “de-facto running mate”. Is it a surprise that will change the course of the election?
I really cannot grip McCain.. how can this guy allow himself to be suckered in this way? Mindless to me… brainless too.
Well, John Mccain speeks tonight. What a dissapointment he is! After Bush calls his wife a drug addict and whore his child a bastard and discredits McCain’s military record he can still support this guy. He deserves a urnial sticker( “PLEASE PISS ON ME SOME MORE MR. PRESIDENT”)
So far, I am not reading anything very convincing or new in the speeches. I am only hearing a softening stance (flip-flopping) from Bush. Have to wait and see what else is in the bag.
cheers
In regards to Nader, he got a little under 3% of the popular vote in 2000. I doubt he gets more than 1% this time. So Jeff is right.
Same poll:
49% think going to war in Iraq was a mistake.
52% think America is on the wrong track.
53% think it’s time for someone else.
These are hardly anything for Bush to be crowing about.
Second, when will these idiots stop polling with Nader in the picture, given that he won’t even be on half the ballots. Including most battlegrounds where it matters.