An August 24-26 Time magazine survey of likely voters found John Kerry and George Bush tied 46%-46% in a two man race and Bush 46%, Kerry 44% and Nader 5% in a 3 way race.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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January 16: Towards a 2028 Democratic Primary Calendar
Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
I am wondering how much power the media holds over the interpretation of the polls. In the article we see author James Camey showing almost insignificant number changes and attributing them to a Bush victory. It’s too bad so few people understand how a poll or percentages work. I’m not even sure my understanding is very strong. If anyone does have a firm understanding of the numbers, how they are achieved, and displayed, I would love to hear it. Thanks.
http://www.maxlogan.com/esquire.0829.htm
The above link is a nice summation of the administration by Ron Reagan. Its long but its worth the read. Its worth sharing with everyone you know too.. esp. those who support Bush.
Cheers
I have quietly read your blog for about 2 weeks.I also watched, in disgust, about an hour of the Republican convention.Lies,lies and more lies and I am ever amazed at the glazed-over look of adoration that I see on these “faith”-blind followers of our present regime. Mayor Rudy came awfully close to a cult leader’s remark when he reiterated the saying”if you’re not with us then you’re with the terrorists!”I feel nothing but contempt for him and McCain…
“To counter Republican attacks, the political-action wing of MoveOn.org launched a $3.2 million convention-week television-ad blitz yesterday — its largest buy to date,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “The ads, featuring former Bush supporters who have turned against the president, will run on cable TV in Florida, Ohio and seven other battleground states.”
I have seen these ads and they are great! They also printed them in the New York Times today. The blitz starts! Go to moveon.org and you can view the ads if you are not in a swing state.
” Kerry clearly benefits whenever the debate moves back to real issues.”
And when it comes to the debates this is where Kerry has him. He has nothing to say as his four years have been a disaster. All he can do is to slime Kerry with a bunch of lies and use Faith to devide our country..
Dagman
Is it possible that its appears as tho Kerry has slipped because of repub convention being in the air?
Could it also have been because the pollster didnt take a corresponding poll since Kerry and others gave a response to the swifters?
Maybe a combination of all the above and other issues. I think that we will know a bit more in the next two weeks but this all depends on how the repub convention goes and how much presence it creates within the media.
In the meantime, the analyses must continue
Cheers
Regardless of which polls we look at, Kerry has slipped. It looks to me as if the slippage is about 4 points across the various polls. I blame this all on the Swift Boat Liars for Fiction, but not for the obvious reasons. I suspect about half of this movement (2 points) is due to people who previously supported Kerry, but no longer do because they are influenced by the garbage. But the other 2 points are the result of the press frenzy on this issue unlike anything we have ever seen. It has sucked all the other news (economy, IRAQ) out of the news cycle just like a giant fuel air bomb sucks all the oxygen out of the air. I think the slight up tick in Bush’s numbers are simply because the bad news (and there has been plenty) about the economy and IRAQ have been completely drowned out – since the bad news has stopped – things must be getting better. Regardless of whether these ads continue, the news cycle is over. Kerry clearly benefits whenever the debate moves back to real issues.
Sky..
“he works his tail off”. You know, this is the most important realisation that you have mentioned and I share your view on this. The guys seems to be running on extra energy.. maybe solar and wind… but you are right, he seems to be working his tail off.. and its something that bothers me because I read so many other blogs where people are asking him to do more… attack more, be more aggressive.. smile more.. just do more and that makes me a tad upset..
Upset because I think that the rank and filers need to work just as hard as kerry.. I think edwards need more publicity.. I think that dem senators and congress persons need to do more… they need to work just as hard as kerry but i am not feeling that as yet..
I like that the dems are going to match dollar for dollar any donations made to the campaign.. thats a gallant effort.
But you are right.. Kerry works hard. I am also happy to know that you too have come to accept kerry’s demeanor. I remember months ago when he was just considered an ugly man. In recent months however, I have encountered numerous people who have come to your realisations also. However you are the only one who says that he works sooo hard.
I think Kerry is warming to people’s hearts. I think he is also getting some sympathetic second glances derived from the Bush sponsored campaign. I think people are now recognising that he has a passion to rescue this country from that flip-flopper george bush.
I hope milllions more will come to your realisation also.. and real soon.
Cheers
Let them have their couple of days…I just had a revelation: looking at the photo gallery on Johnkerry.com, I was struck by how MUCH I like this guy. He’s handsome, intelligent, a real hero, thoughtful, and he works his tail off. We’ve haven’t settled, we’re blessed with a great candidate. And the crowds greeting him are huge! Godspeed John Kerry.
> could it be possible that mccain has started to
> campaign for 2008? creating his platform by
> using bush?
>
> Posted by Bel at August 30, 2004 08:40 PM
That’s what TNR says. But he’d be 72, and I think that that’s a little old. But I guess that he’s the strongest person the GOP will have. Either him or Jeb.
I find it highly amusing that Republicans (and Mickey Kaus) are crowing about a few polls showing their candidate breaking into the upper 40’s. I guess we better throw in the towel, Kerry is toast.
Who wants to vote for a “urinal sticker” ?
could it be possible that mccain has started to campaign for 2008? creating his platform by using bush?
I no longer expect any quality out of McCain… a man is known by the company he keeps.
In an interview broadcasted tonight on ABC McCain called the Swift Boat Liars ads “dishonorable and dishonest”, but when asked directly if they were false talked only of fading memories and the fog of war.
So much for the Straight Talk Express.
Today on the “News hour” Jim Lehrer called McCain “de-facto running mate”. Is it a surprise that will change the course of the election?
I really cannot grip McCain.. how can this guy allow himself to be suckered in this way? Mindless to me… brainless too.
Well, John Mccain speeks tonight. What a dissapointment he is! After Bush calls his wife a drug addict and whore his child a bastard and discredits McCain’s military record he can still support this guy. He deserves a urnial sticker( “PLEASE PISS ON ME SOME MORE MR. PRESIDENT”)
So far, I am not reading anything very convincing or new in the speeches. I am only hearing a softening stance (flip-flopping) from Bush. Have to wait and see what else is in the bag.
cheers
In regards to Nader, he got a little under 3% of the popular vote in 2000. I doubt he gets more than 1% this time. So Jeff is right.
Same poll:
49% think going to war in Iraq was a mistake.
52% think America is on the wrong track.
53% think it’s time for someone else.
These are hardly anything for Bush to be crowing about.
Second, when will these idiots stop polling with Nader in the picture, given that he won’t even be on half the ballots. Including most battlegrounds where it matters.