A relatively new term is popping up in articles on 2024 strategy for Democrats that I explained and explored at New York:
When you have a presidential candidate who is struggling to generate enthusiasm in the party base, it’s natural to look for some external stimulation. In the case of Joe Biden, the most obvious source of a 2024 boost is the deep antipathy that nearly all Democrats, many independents, and even a sizable sliver of Republicans feel toward Donald Trump. But in case that’s not enough, Team Biden is looking at another avenue of opportunity, albeit a risky one: the possibility of “reverse coattails” taking him past Trump on a wave of turnout that incidentally benefits the president of the United States.
That’s not the conventional wisdom, as the term reverse coattails makes clear: Normally, it’s the head of the ticket from whom all blessings flow, which makes sense insofar as presidential-election turnout dwarfs that of off-year and midterm contests in no small part because people who don’t necessarily care about the identity of their senator or governor are galvanized by the battle for the White House. But as Russell Berman of The Atlantic explains, this year is different:
“Faith in the reverse-coattails effect is fueling Democratic investments in down-ballot races and referenda. In North Carolina, for example, party officials hope that a favorable matchup in the governor’s race — Democratic attorney general Josh Stein is facing Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, who has referred to homosexuality as ‘filth’ and compared abortion to slavery — could help Biden carry a state that Trump narrowly won twice. Democrats are also trying to break a Republican supermajority in the legislature, where they are contesting nearly all 170 districts. ‘The bottom of the ticket is absolutely driving engagement and will for all levels of the ballot,’ Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told me.”
In other states, high-profile ballot measures, particularly those aimed at restoring the abortion rights denied by conservative courts and Republican lawmakers, may generate bottoms-up enthusiasm benefiting Biden and embattled Democratic Senate candidates as well:
“In key states across the country, Democrats and their allies are planting ballot initiatives both to protect reproductive rights where they are under threat and to turn out voters in presidential and congressional battlegrounds. They’ve already placed an abortion measure on the ballot in Florida, where the state supreme court upheld one of the nation’s most restrictive bans on the procedure, and they plan to in Arizona, whose highest court recently ruled that the state could enforce an abortion ban first enacted during the Civil War. Democrats are also collecting signatures for abortion-rights measures in Montana, home to a marquee Senate race, and in Nevada, a presidential swing state that has a competitive Senate matchup this year.”
Berman notes that the reverse-coattails strategy is unproven. Voters, for example, who attracted to the polls by abortion ballot measures don’t always follow the partisan implications of their votes when it comes to candidate preferences. Red-hot down-ballot races are probably more reliable in attracting voters who can be expected to follow the party line to the top of the ticket. A positive precedent can be found in Georgia’s coordinated effort of 2020, when a powerful campaign infrastructure built by Democratic Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock clearly helped maximize Biden’s vote; the 46th president won the state by less than 12,000. Perhaps a strong Senate candidate like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey could help Biden survive as well. As for the possible effect of ballot measures, it was once generally accepted that in 2004 a GOP strategy of encouraging anti-same-sex-marriage ballot measures helped boost conservative turnout in battleground states like Ohio, enabling George W. Bush’s narrow victory (though there are analysts who argue against that hypothesis). One reason it may work better today is the increasing prevalence of straight-ticket voting and the heavy emphasis of Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot on the kind of support for abortion rights that should help them take advantage of ballot-measure-generated turnout.
We won’t get a good idea of how either reverse-coattails strategy is working until late in the 2024 campaign when it becomes possible to measure new voter registrations, screen registered voters for their likelihood to participate in the election, and assess states where down-ballot contests are turning into a Democratic blowout. Team Biden would be wise to do everything in its power to lift the president’s popularity and build a favorability advantage over Trump that can reduce the number of “double haters” likely to stay home or vote for a change in the party management of Washington.
Why can’t we get some better trolls? Bring back S Robinson!
Bush didn’t win the debates. He won the spin war afterwards.
After the first debate, the consensus from pundits and undecideds was that Gore had won.
But it wasn’t long before the RNC served up its talking points and the media started parroting them and suddenly things were back onto script (Gore is a big fat liar).
Dave,
I don’t underestimate Bush as a debater. He has a great advantage of having the bar always set low. Fortunately for Kerry, the same seems to be happening. I remember the last time Ted Kennedy debated during his re-elction. It seemed everyone was expecting a bumbling drunk to be on the stage. He went on to destroy his opponent, the now governor Mitt Romney I believe, by having a firm grasp of all of the issues. I don’t think either has an advantage on the “low bar” issue. Thinking about it, I guess it’s pretty sad when you don’t expect a lot from the leader of the free world!!
Re: The debates
The recent issue (jul/aug) Atlantic Monthly had a good article on the upcoming debates. They were calling it assymetrical warfare.
Basic points: Do not underestimate Bush. He has ‘beat’ a number of qualified opponents in debates – including Ann Richards and Al Gore – by staying on point, on message. Kerry wins debates by out-thinking his opponents and staying in control and command of everything going on.
A very worthwhile read.
Mara,
I’m sure that Bush’s people going to try and minimize the height issue by wanting them to sit, etc. But, one of the debate formats is going to be a town meeting style. That will mean, no podiums, or anything else for Bush to hide behind. Even in the other formats, they will meet at center stage both before and after the debate to shake hands. But, I’m sure that the Bushies are probably going to try and stop that too.
The good thing is, Kerry will overshadow him on the issues , as well.
Keith,
I remember reading about Kerry agreeing to something that would equalize the height gap – sitting down or allowing Bush to stand on a soap box, something. Wish I could remember where I read it. Anyone else hear about this? I am serious.
I have no worries about Kerry’s speech. Being originally from Massachusetts, I have seen him speak on a number of occasions. If they are purposely setting the bar low, it will look like he hits a home run. Where he’ll really take it to Bush will be in the debates. I remember the one when he was in a tough race for the Senate against, the then popular governor, Bill Weld. He is great in a debate format. Plus, he’ll tower over Bush physically. Never a bad thing when you’re trying to look “pesidential.”
Political pundits are like sports reporters — today’s game is always the most crucial..at least until tomorrow’s rolls around. It’s obviously helpful if a candidate gives a solid speech at the convention (and most, even such dullards as Gerry Ford and Mike Dukakis, have been proclaimed to have done so). But the effects are ephemeral, and the election in the end comes down to basics: how is the incumbent doing, and is the challenger minimally acceptable as alternative? By the standards of today’s thinking, Reagan was a spectacular flop at convention 1980, since he couldn’t establish a convincing lead against an incumbent with 40% approval. In that case, pundit conventional wisdom is that Reagan “made the sale” at the late debate with Carter (so I guess there’s more than one “last chance”), but even there, post-debate polls didn’t show an instant jump: the race was considered too close to call right up until the returns started flowing in. So maybe Reagan was always going to get the anti-Carter majority, and none of the rest mattered.
For Kerry’s future, there are far more important things than his speech — specifically, continuing news from Iraq, and the upcoming economics/jobs reports.
Agree that Kerry’s speech is of limited importance. Remember, Gore gave a fine speech at the 2K convention, but it didn’t seem to have much impact on election day. The October-November ad blitz and the debates will be more important.
Bob–if you feel confident that your political beliefs are correct, I recommend that you test them by reading “We’re Right, They’re Wrong” by James Carville. If you’re sure that your way of political thinking is really what it should be, then what’s stopping you? I read “See, I Told You So” by Rush Limbaugh, and I was not convinced. If it gets too tough, just read this exerpt:
http://pearly-abraham.tripod.com/htmls/james-right.html
There’s always “Had Enough?” but that’s a pretty long one–it’s James Carville writing a book about the Bush presidency.
Hey everybody, we’ll make him look stupid instead of struggling with difficult questions!!
Hey, I never said that I didn’t go to Public (government) school! 🙂
“will” should be “with”
See, the effects are showing already!
Thanks for bumping my IQ down a couple of notches will your post, Bob.
You know, it must be nice for Democratic Despots to have a bunch of mindless followers for ‘Crats to vote for them. Some of the crap that I heard slithering out of Clinton (x2) just amazed me. How do you people believe that stuff?
Don’t worry, I am not a Bush supporter either…he is waaaay too liberal. Yes, Bush is a liberal. Kind of harsh, but a liberal in sheeps clothing.
Does anybody realize that Kerry has no plan, except that he has a plan? Hows he gonna reduce debe? hows he going to provide socialized health care, without turning this nation into a socialist one? does anybody read the great philosopher historians??
But alas, seems that the only thing we learn from history, is that we don’t learn from history. And liberalism is just what the mindless clinton coolaid masses need.
Ruy, I would be interested in your coments on the latest ABC/Washington Post Poll showing Bush in the lead?
Good article. I agree. It’s too late for Kerry to attempt to reinvent himself. Besides, that would only play into the Republican’s referring to the convention as the “extreme makeover.”
I’m also tired of hearing all the pundits talk about how Clinton or Edwards might overshadow Kerry. I don’t think that’s the case at all. Everyone knows who the nominee is. They’re all building up Kerry. Quit making controversey where there is none.
If the ability to give a rousing speech was so important to the public in choosing a president, then Bush would be a political dead man.