A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
muckdog,
Afraid to dive deep into what?
I don’t think anyone is arguing that the country is not still fairly evenly divided. But Kerry is now ahead in almost every single national poll. That can’t be good news for Bush, especially when conventional wisdom says that the undecideds will break for the challenger as election day looms near.
I’m not sure how you can say his message isn’t ‘selling well’ when he’s ahead in the polls, and when we’re still in the middle of summer with a lot of people still not paying much attention. I think a lot of people haven’t taken the opportunity to hear John Kerry’s message yet.
These “message readjustments” in the Bush campaign, to me, are reassuring signs that they know they’re in big trouble. They are trying to bend their tin ear to what the bulk of the electorate are telling them, but: “many call you the elite – I call you my base”.
The “base” – big business owners – was distressed during the boom because high employment led to what Greenspan called “wage pressure”. Wage presssure!?!?! I nearly fell over laughing! Those darn employees gettin’ uppity agin! Askin’ fer more money, th’ greedy bastards! W can only satisfy them by keeping unemployment high. This strategy, if he was able to do anything about it at all, seems to have worked too well! Since the economy failed to rebound “because” of tax cuts for the wealthy (I’m in the top 7% income bracket and they didn’t cut MY taxes that much), what then is the republican message? I don’t think more of the same is gonna cut it…
That WSJ journal article is in conflict with a piece in Barrons this weekend, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding who is participating in the recovery. Most of the jobs are higher-wage jobs, according to the BLS.
Because Bush’s economic medicine did turn around the economy. The economy is surging ahead at the fastest rate in over 20 years.
What’s different now is global competition and the emergence of biotechnology and health care as the booming domestic industry, and the increasing supply of lower-wage technology workers overseas.
Bush should be talking about the expanding economy, AND the need to continue to improve.
I don’t think the Kerry misery message is selling well. Despite all the bad news for Bush, movies and op-ed spinning, the polls are even. And Kerry didn’t get much of a bounce from picking Edwards. Which is very strange indeed. Usually the challenger has a pretty big bump. Not Kerry.
Afraid to dive deep into that one?
Great article but… WHY ISN’T KERRY DOING ANYTHING?!
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040802&s=phillips
Kevin Phillips has written a very good article about how Kerry can beat Bush. It is refreshing, and backed up by historical precedent. Well worth the read.
That’s fast. AP today:
“”You’re probably here thinking I’m going to spend most of the time attacking my opponent,” Bush told the crowd. “I’ve got too much good to talk about.”
The president hardly mentioned Democratic rival John Kerry while contending that a second Bush term in the White House would extend the programs of tax relief and education reform enacted in the past four years. ”
This is off topic but I wanted to get your comments since you guys are so insightful. I live in one of the battleground states, SouthWest FL. Lately we are being bombarded by negative ads from the Bush campaign blasting Kerry. These ads are numerous not only on TV but on local radio as well. I’ve noticed that the new ads don’t feature a male narrator with a sarcastic tone but a female narrator who sounds sincere yet concerned. It is weird to hear a Bush ad on our local “oldies” radio station placed between Buffalo Springfield’s “There’s Something Happening Here” and The Beatles’ “Revolution”. These ads WILL have an effect on some people and the Kerry campaign needs to do something. I have a suggestion. Let me know if you think its a good one. If its not; let me know this too. After all, this is how we learn.
Kerry/Edwards should combat these ads by running their own ad (particularly on Radio) decrying the general negative nature of the Bush ads and the distortions and lies contained in them. I know it would be impossible to run an ad addressing all of these distortions but they should run a general ad urging the public to be wary of what they hear in these negative Bush ads. They should also direct the public to an easy source where they can read the truth about Bush’s allegations and see the explanations for certain allegations: such as why Kerry voted against the so-called Laci Peterson bill.
Perhaps the public could be directed to johnkerry.com where a PROMINENT link could be placed on the homepage addressing the lies and distortions of the Bush ads. Or better yet…Perhaps they could be directed to a new website: adlies.com or something. I hope you understand what I am suggesting. Kerry needs a way to fight this negative advertising beyond just a 10 second sound bite on MSNBC. Most people probably wouldn’t even visit the website BUT, Producing just one major ad that attacks the Bush campaign for going way overboard with the negative attack ads will accomplish at least 3 objectives:
1) It will instill in the public consciousness a doubt when they hear the myriad negative Bush ads.
2) It will demonstrate that Kerry is not just going to sit down and take it but he is FIGHTING BACK! He can even stay on the “high road” and keep running positive ads. His only negative ad will be an ANTI-negative ads ad!
3)It will offer the people a source to find the truth if they desire.
I can hear the end of the ad in my head right now:
(A sincere but concerned female voice)” Please visit JohnKerry.com now and click on the link, “AdLies” to see just how untrue and distorted the Bush Campaign’s negative ads have become. You will be glad you did.”
It would also be nice if we could make it clear that Bush has not lowered taxes at all. He has lowered tax rates. We are taking less taxes right now, but only because we are running unprecedneted deficits (not really, but nominally, and with the demographic sistuations they really are unprecedented).
However, in order to reduce taxes we need to reduce the amount of money that the government requires to run. On that count, Bush has masively raised taxes, and offers only empty rhetoric to do anything other than that.
We really should be pointing out that Bush has not lowered the tax burden, simply shifted it.
Sounds like someone with no real solutions telling his client — “hey, this message is doing great numbers for them, let’s co-opt it and use it ourselves”. Imitation = sincerest form of flattery, and all that. Or, more accurately, “watch what they do, then steal what works and make it your own!”
Yes, there are always going to be those drawn to the Republicans’ message about taxes. There are many people who are Republicans based almost solely on the tax issue, so I don’t see why they would ever stop harping about cutting taxes.
That said, the last polls I’ve seen on this issue stated a majority of people would rather do things such as have universal health insurance, pay down the debt, and fix social security even if it meant not getting tax cuts.
So while this strategy gives the Republicans a definite advantage among a certain segment of the population, I agree with Ruy in that I don’t think it’s something that would miraculously bring a bunch of undecideds into the fold.
I would be hesitant to imply that the Republican strategy of offering more tax cuts as a panacea for our economic concerns will not work, especially because it is “more of the same.”
Anecdotally, I know many moderates/independents who are swayed by the “tax cut” message every election year — that is, until you explain what goes with tax cuts, namely cuts in social spending and ballooning deficits.
Only if Kerry-Edwards can respond quickly to any discussion of further tax cuts by pointing out Bush’s promise to halve the deficit in five years, and pointing out the dissonance between the two proposals, can they effectively counter this very popular message.
That said, there is polling evidence that when you ask Americans about upper-Income taxes specifically, they tend to think that the rates are probably too low versus too high by 63% to 9%.
http://www.pollingreport.com/budget.htm
(Scroll down on the April 2004 Gallup poll)
Today’s Wall Street Journal has this article you may want to check out. Headlined:
“Affluent Advantage: So Far, Economic Recovery Tilts To Highest-Income Americans — They Gain More, Spend More; With Job Market Rising, Will Others Feel Rebound?”