I figured this was as good a time as any to come clean about reasons Democrats are fretting the 2024 election results despite some quite positive signs for Kamala Harris, so I wrote them up at New York:
One of the most enduring of recent political trends is a sharp partisan divergence in confidence about each party’s electoral future. Democrats are forever “fretting” or even “bed-wetting;” they are in “disarray” and pointing fingers at each other over disasters yet to come. Republicans, reflecting the incessant bravado of their three-time presidential nominee, tend to project total, overwhelming victory in every election, future and sometimes even past. When you say, as Donald Trump often does, that “the only way we lose is if they cheat,” you are expressing the belief that you never ever actually lose.
The contrast between the fretting donkey and the trumpeting elephant is sometimes interpreted as a matter of character. Dating back to the early days of the progressive blogosphere, many activists have claimed that Democrats (particularly centrists) simply lack “spine,” or the remorseless willingness put aside doubts or any other compunctions in order to fight for victory in contests large and small. In this Nietzschean view of politics, as determined by sheer will-to-power (rather than the quality of ideas or the impact of real-world conditions), Democrats are forever bringing a knife to a gun fight or a gun to a nuclear war.
Those of us who are offended by this anti-intellectual view of political competition, much less its implicit suggestion that Democrats become as vicious and demagogic as the opposition often is, have an obligation to offer an alternative explanation for this asymmetric warfare of partisan self-confidence. I won’t offer a general theory dating back to past elections, but in 2024, the most important reasons for inordinate Democratic fear are past painful experience and a disproportionate understanding of the stakes of this election.
It’s very safe to say very few Democrats expected Hillary Clinton to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, or that Joe Biden would come so close to losing to Donald Trump in 2020. No lead in the polls looks safe because in previous elections involving Trump, they weren’t.
To be clear, the national polls weren’t far off in 2016; the problem was that sparse public polling of key states didn’t alert Democrats to the possibility Trump might pull an Electoral College inside straight by winning three states that hadn’t gone Republican in many years (since 1984 in Wisconsin, and since 1988 in Michigan and Pennsylvania). 2020 was just a bad year for pollsters. In both cases, it was Trump who benefitted from polling errors. So of course Democrats don’t view any polling lead as safe. Yes, the pollsters claim they’ve compensated for the problems that affect their accuracy in 2016 and 2020, and it’s even possible they over-compensated, meaning that Harris could do better than expected. But the painful memories remain fresh.
If you believe the maximum Trump ‘24 message about Kamala Harris’s intentions as president, it’s a scary prospect: she’s a Marxist (or Communist) who wants to replace white American citizens with the scum of the earth, which her administration is eagerly inviting across open borders with government benefits to illegally vote Democratic. It’s true that polls show a hard kernel — perhaps close to half — of self-identified Republicans believe some version of the Great Replacement Theory that has migrated from the right-wing fringes to the heart of the Trump campaign’s messaging, and that’s terrifying since there’s no evidence whatsoever for it. But best we can tell, the Trump voting base is a more-or-less equally divided coalition of people who actually believe some if not all of what their candidate says about the consequences of defeat, and people who just think Trump offers better economic and tougher immigration policies. While the election may be an existential crisis for Trump himself, since his own personal liberty could depend on the outcome, there’s not much evidence that all-or-nothing attitude is shared beyond the MAGA core of his coalition.
By contrast, Democrats don’t have to exercise a lurid sense of imagination to feel fear about Trump 2.0. They have Trump 1.0 as a precedent, with the added consideration that the disorganization and poor planning that curbed many of the 45th president’s authoritarian tendencies will almost certainly be reduced in 2025. Then there’s the escalation in his extremist rhetoric. In 2016 he promised a Muslim travel ban and a southern border wall. Now he’s talking about mass deportation program for undocumented immigrants and overt ideological vetting of legal immigrants. In 2016 he inveighed against the “deep state” and accused Democrats of actively working against the interests of the country. Now he’s pledging to carry out a virtual suspension of civil service protections and promising to unleash the machinery of law enforcement on his political enemies, including the press. As the furor over Project 2025 suggests, there’s a general sense that the scarier elements in Trump’s circle of advisors are planning to hit the ground running with radical changes in policies and personnel that can’t be reversed.
An important psychological factor feeding Democratic fears of a close election is the unavoidable fact that Trump has virtually promised to repeat or even surpass his 2020 effort to overturn the results if he loses. So anything other than a landslide victory for Harris will be fragile and potentially reversible. This is a deeply demoralizing prospect. It’s one thing to keep people focused on maximum engagement with politics through November 5. It’s another thing altogether to plan for a long frantic slog that won’t be completed until January 20.
Trump has been working hard to perfect the flaws in his 2020 post-election campaign that led to the failed January 6 insurrection, devoting a lot of resources to pre-election litigation and the compilation of post-election fraud allegations.
Though if you look hard you can find scattered examples of Democrats talking about denying a victorious Trump re-inauguration on January 20, none of that chatter is coming from the Democratic Party, the Harris-Walz campaign, or a critical mass of the many, many players who would be necessary to challenge an election defeat. Election denial in 2024 is strictly a Republican show.
As my colleague Jonathan Chait recently explained, the odds of Republicans winning control of the Senate in November are extremely high. That means that barring a political miracle, a President Harris would be constrained both legislatively and administratively, in terms of the vast number of executive-branch and judicial appointments the Senate has the power to confirm, reject, or simply ignore.
If Trump wins, however, he will have a better-than-even chance at a governing trifecta. This would not only open up the floodgates for extremist appointments aimed at remaking the federal government and adding to the Trumpification of the judiciary, but would unlock the budget reconciliation process whereby the trifecta party can make massive policy changes on up-or-down party-line votes without having to worry about a Senate filibuster.
Overall, Democrats have more reason to fear this election, and putting on some fake bravado and braying like MAGA folk won’t change the underlying reasons for that fear. The only thing that can is a second Trump defeat which sticks.
muckdog,
Afraid to dive deep into what?
I don’t think anyone is arguing that the country is not still fairly evenly divided. But Kerry is now ahead in almost every single national poll. That can’t be good news for Bush, especially when conventional wisdom says that the undecideds will break for the challenger as election day looms near.
I’m not sure how you can say his message isn’t ‘selling well’ when he’s ahead in the polls, and when we’re still in the middle of summer with a lot of people still not paying much attention. I think a lot of people haven’t taken the opportunity to hear John Kerry’s message yet.
These “message readjustments” in the Bush campaign, to me, are reassuring signs that they know they’re in big trouble. They are trying to bend their tin ear to what the bulk of the electorate are telling them, but: “many call you the elite – I call you my base”.
The “base” – big business owners – was distressed during the boom because high employment led to what Greenspan called “wage pressure”. Wage presssure!?!?! I nearly fell over laughing! Those darn employees gettin’ uppity agin! Askin’ fer more money, th’ greedy bastards! W can only satisfy them by keeping unemployment high. This strategy, if he was able to do anything about it at all, seems to have worked too well! Since the economy failed to rebound “because” of tax cuts for the wealthy (I’m in the top 7% income bracket and they didn’t cut MY taxes that much), what then is the republican message? I don’t think more of the same is gonna cut it…
That WSJ journal article is in conflict with a piece in Barrons this weekend, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding who is participating in the recovery. Most of the jobs are higher-wage jobs, according to the BLS.
Because Bush’s economic medicine did turn around the economy. The economy is surging ahead at the fastest rate in over 20 years.
What’s different now is global competition and the emergence of biotechnology and health care as the booming domestic industry, and the increasing supply of lower-wage technology workers overseas.
Bush should be talking about the expanding economy, AND the need to continue to improve.
I don’t think the Kerry misery message is selling well. Despite all the bad news for Bush, movies and op-ed spinning, the polls are even. And Kerry didn’t get much of a bounce from picking Edwards. Which is very strange indeed. Usually the challenger has a pretty big bump. Not Kerry.
Afraid to dive deep into that one?
Great article but… WHY ISN’T KERRY DOING ANYTHING?!
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040802&s=phillips
Kevin Phillips has written a very good article about how Kerry can beat Bush. It is refreshing, and backed up by historical precedent. Well worth the read.
That’s fast. AP today:
“”You’re probably here thinking I’m going to spend most of the time attacking my opponent,” Bush told the crowd. “I’ve got too much good to talk about.”
The president hardly mentioned Democratic rival John Kerry while contending that a second Bush term in the White House would extend the programs of tax relief and education reform enacted in the past four years. ”
This is off topic but I wanted to get your comments since you guys are so insightful. I live in one of the battleground states, SouthWest FL. Lately we are being bombarded by negative ads from the Bush campaign blasting Kerry. These ads are numerous not only on TV but on local radio as well. I’ve noticed that the new ads don’t feature a male narrator with a sarcastic tone but a female narrator who sounds sincere yet concerned. It is weird to hear a Bush ad on our local “oldies” radio station placed between Buffalo Springfield’s “There’s Something Happening Here” and The Beatles’ “Revolution”. These ads WILL have an effect on some people and the Kerry campaign needs to do something. I have a suggestion. Let me know if you think its a good one. If its not; let me know this too. After all, this is how we learn.
Kerry/Edwards should combat these ads by running their own ad (particularly on Radio) decrying the general negative nature of the Bush ads and the distortions and lies contained in them. I know it would be impossible to run an ad addressing all of these distortions but they should run a general ad urging the public to be wary of what they hear in these negative Bush ads. They should also direct the public to an easy source where they can read the truth about Bush’s allegations and see the explanations for certain allegations: such as why Kerry voted against the so-called Laci Peterson bill.
Perhaps the public could be directed to johnkerry.com where a PROMINENT link could be placed on the homepage addressing the lies and distortions of the Bush ads. Or better yet…Perhaps they could be directed to a new website: adlies.com or something. I hope you understand what I am suggesting. Kerry needs a way to fight this negative advertising beyond just a 10 second sound bite on MSNBC. Most people probably wouldn’t even visit the website BUT, Producing just one major ad that attacks the Bush campaign for going way overboard with the negative attack ads will accomplish at least 3 objectives:
1) It will instill in the public consciousness a doubt when they hear the myriad negative Bush ads.
2) It will demonstrate that Kerry is not just going to sit down and take it but he is FIGHTING BACK! He can even stay on the “high road” and keep running positive ads. His only negative ad will be an ANTI-negative ads ad!
3)It will offer the people a source to find the truth if they desire.
I can hear the end of the ad in my head right now:
(A sincere but concerned female voice)” Please visit JohnKerry.com now and click on the link, “AdLies” to see just how untrue and distorted the Bush Campaign’s negative ads have become. You will be glad you did.”
It would also be nice if we could make it clear that Bush has not lowered taxes at all. He has lowered tax rates. We are taking less taxes right now, but only because we are running unprecedneted deficits (not really, but nominally, and with the demographic sistuations they really are unprecedented).
However, in order to reduce taxes we need to reduce the amount of money that the government requires to run. On that count, Bush has masively raised taxes, and offers only empty rhetoric to do anything other than that.
We really should be pointing out that Bush has not lowered the tax burden, simply shifted it.
Sounds like someone with no real solutions telling his client — “hey, this message is doing great numbers for them, let’s co-opt it and use it ourselves”. Imitation = sincerest form of flattery, and all that. Or, more accurately, “watch what they do, then steal what works and make it your own!”
Yes, there are always going to be those drawn to the Republicans’ message about taxes. There are many people who are Republicans based almost solely on the tax issue, so I don’t see why they would ever stop harping about cutting taxes.
That said, the last polls I’ve seen on this issue stated a majority of people would rather do things such as have universal health insurance, pay down the debt, and fix social security even if it meant not getting tax cuts.
So while this strategy gives the Republicans a definite advantage among a certain segment of the population, I agree with Ruy in that I don’t think it’s something that would miraculously bring a bunch of undecideds into the fold.
I would be hesitant to imply that the Republican strategy of offering more tax cuts as a panacea for our economic concerns will not work, especially because it is “more of the same.”
Anecdotally, I know many moderates/independents who are swayed by the “tax cut” message every election year — that is, until you explain what goes with tax cuts, namely cuts in social spending and ballooning deficits.
Only if Kerry-Edwards can respond quickly to any discussion of further tax cuts by pointing out Bush’s promise to halve the deficit in five years, and pointing out the dissonance between the two proposals, can they effectively counter this very popular message.
That said, there is polling evidence that when you ask Americans about upper-Income taxes specifically, they tend to think that the rates are probably too low versus too high by 63% to 9%.
http://www.pollingreport.com/budget.htm
(Scroll down on the April 2004 Gallup poll)
Today’s Wall Street Journal has this article you may want to check out. Headlined:
“Affluent Advantage: So Far, Economic Recovery Tilts To Highest-Income Americans — They Gain More, Spend More; With Job Market Rising, Will Others Feel Rebound?”