A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
Like Melior and Billmon, I read the muck-dog’s “strongest economy in 20 years” line, and nearly laughed out loud. It’s almost too ludicrous a statement to need response, but, for the record, as Billmon says, the quote refers to one brief three-month period. It’s like an isolated day of thundershowers in the midst of a three-year drought — any public official who went around saying “We now have our best water situation in 20 years” would be strung up.
The economy over the Bush term has been clearly poor. The recent (undeniable) job gains held promise of at least reversing the public verdict on current conditions. But now signs are suggesting that what recovery there was is about done: the job numbers took a sudden dip, GDP for even Q1 were revised down, all other reports suggest even weaker activity in Q2 and Q3…and the oil price situation grows ominously bad (the Yukos problem may push it into crisis). At best, the economy will be a semi-negative factor for Bush, since many never bought into the recovery idea to begin with (particularly in swing states). But much worse is possible: a near-downturn prior to the election, and (as I’ve heard predicted by reputable sources) a sharp market drop. If that should come about, Bush will long for the days when he could hope for 47-49% of the vote.
Ron,
I understand that there are senarios that don’t include winning Ohio or Florida. I’m not so confident about Arizona. And, Missouri will also be very tough.
A poll out last week in Nevada has Kerry up by 4 points. Plus, I’ll bet that New Hampshire goes for Kerry. Southern NH is the high growth area and is filled with Massachusetts Democrats moving over the boarder. He’s 2 points up in a poll from July 21.
Unfortunately, combined with Nevada that stills comes up 1 short. So, you’ll still need West Virginia or possibly Arkansas. But, let’s face it, if places like Nevada, NH, and W. Virginia fall to Kerry, then we’re talking decisve win, because that trend will pull, at the very least, Ohio and possibly Florida with it.
Bush has to be VERY concerned right now. There are no states that went for Gore in 2000 where he realistically has a chance. There are a number of states that went for Bush, where Kerry is either slightly ahead, or in a statistical tie.
Hold onto your hat for the October surprise. This group will not go down easy. They will beg, borrow, cheat and steal to stay in power.
“Well, the economy is the strongest in 20 years…”
If the Republican chowder heads want to run on that message in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, I think that’s just dandy.
(That “strongest economy in 20 years” talking point, BTW, applies to the GDP growth rate in exactly one one quarter – the third quarter of last year. And, of course, it doesn’t apply at all to employment and wage growth.)
But like I said, if that’s how the Bush-Cheney campaign wants to commit suicide, it’s fine with me.
Good point, Ron. I’m actually feeling very optimistic about our chances of taking Arizona, more so than Missouri this time.
“Well, the economy is the strongest in 20 years…”
Keep whistling. You must have missed the announcement this week of the return of record budget deficits, the looming spikes in oil prices, and “unexpectedly” more billions to feed the Iraq war. There is little confidence in the fundamentals by investors (who don’t just listen to Greenspan) right now, despite record valuations.
Keith,
I don’t think we’re necessarily screwed if we lose Ohio and Florida. I think Kerry will win both, but if he carries all of Gore’s states, he only needs 10 additional electoral votes, and he could get those in Missouri, or Arizona, or by winning West Virginia and Nevada.
as a side note, here’s a link that ought to settle the debate re kerry’s anticipated convention bounce:
http://salon.com/politics/war_room/archive.html?wire=D843KIN80.html
despite ed gillespie’s purposefully wrong take on the size of convention bounces historically enjoyed by candidates (he says 15 points), the truth is
“[t]he average bounce for a convention like the current Democratic convention is 5 to 7 percentage points, said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.”
now, why has the 5-7 points number been so hard to verify? I know what gillespie’s motives are but why can’t the major media outlets simply use past poll data to debunk GOP claims ?
the answer for me is incredibly lazy journalists who are quite content to mechanically structure articles around point/counterpoint, instead of doing a little background work to verify the factual allegations they so blindly print. I guess it’s easier to parrot GOP talking points than take the few minutes to run a NEXIS search or call a polling organization to get a definitive answer.
really, in the information age, not bothering to verify your source’s statements is unforgivable.
Well, the economy is the strongest in 20 years and Greenspan is already tapping on the brakes. It makes sense that folks would give Bush a good mark on the economy. It’s done really well rebounding from the 2000-2001 recession.
Polls, polls, polls… I study them till my head spins. Am I wrong in sensing that this whole race will be decided by two states.. Ohio and Florida. If Kerry wins one of them, game is over. If he loses both, four more long years!!
Net-net (if you can excuse the expression), the polls show K/E about two points ahead, and leading in the electoral college. That is, if there are ten polls in any given two week period, and eight of them show K/E ahead, that ought to be a pretty good measurement. Obviously, any one poll has a much larger margin of error.
Remember the under-measurement of Reagan votes in 1980. And given the enthusiasm this year, I’m hoping for a good, un-measured, turnout effect.
I agree that it’s got to be a party ID thing with the Post poll. It just just such an outlier in so many ways that it’s not a reasonable poll. The deltas, even with it’s own poll the previous month, is just too severe for any reasonable explanation. 10 point shifts are all over the place when not that much happened in the last month to favor bush. Also, the Post polls have always given bush much larger job approval ratings than other polls. It’s been the Post polls with the Fox ‘polls’ that are way outside the norm. I’m not sure what the Post is doing (I know what Fox is doing!), but they have consistenly produced out of the mainstream poll numbers. These latest are just another example.
I think the Post/ABC poll is having some problems with sample quality – first there was the huge swing towards Kerry on the terrorism issue back in June (which the Post played up a big story) then the big swing back towards Bush in the two July polls. I don’t think anybody really believes that Kerry closed to even with Bush on the GOP signature issue – and certainly none of the other polls ever showed it.
Something else I noticed (somewhere) about the Post/ABC poll was that their latest sample was 33% Republican, which seemed awfully high to me. I don’t think Post/ABC controls for party identification, so what we’re seeing may just be some random noise – or an exaggeration of a real trend, which the Gallup poll would seem to suggest.
Given the incredible partisan polarization on just about every issue, it seems logical to me that even a minor shift in party ID within the samples could have a big impact on the results.
Of course, controlling for party ID has its own problems – what’s the “right” split? And I’m not going to argue that it’s the better way to do things. But the media, as usual, is doing an awful job of explaining the limitations of polling, and the fact that many of the “trends” that people think they see in the numbers are in fact just noise.
You could make a case that the concentration on first the Edwards selection, then the 9/11 Commission, and now the convention has been marginally beneficial for Bush, as it has kept the chief source of his weakness — Iraq — from holding the center ring. It’s not like nothing’s going on over there: we’re still losing 1-2 military per day, with countless more wounded, but it’s not leading the evening news. Fiascos like today’s might reverse that, especially once we’re past the conventions. I also think (and have heard from sources) that the round number “1000 dead” will get alot of attention from the press. It’s only a number, but those things register (As analogy: Carter had the horrible break of the first anniversary of the hostage-taking occurring right before Election Day 1980. It amounted to a media-sponsored tough negative ad right before voting).
68 people blew up today in Iraq. Yeah, no drama there.
Bush isn’t quite as vulnerable as he once was, now that there isn’t as much drama going on in Iraq. As for people talking about Kerry not re-defining himself, I don’t see why not. Gore wasn’t defining himself in the 2000 convention we he said “I want to show you who I truly am”–he was redefining himself, after everyone saying he was a dull robot. Kerry could actually give a speech as good as Edwards, provided that Edwards wrote it for him.
One or the other is outside the 95% confidence band
Here’s a data point for you: watching the network news, all that my wife heard about the convention was that Teresa Kerry-Heinz told a reporter to “shove it”.
Great coverage, eh?
Are you implying something? Do you think these results are not honest somehow, or simply that
this must be an outlier poll?
MSNBC reported the WAPO poll results because it builds viewer interest based on tension, because it is seen by conservatives as a liberal cable outlet and must therefore throw them bones and because MSNBC is tied in with Newsweek, which is also tied in with WAPO.
and why did msnbc decide to run with the poll showing kerry behind at the start of the DNC…not only did they hype the wapo poll on their site as the main headline but they wouldn’t shutup about it on TV either