Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
Like Melior and Billmon, I read the muck-dog’s “strongest economy in 20 years” line, and nearly laughed out loud. It’s almost too ludicrous a statement to need response, but, for the record, as Billmon says, the quote refers to one brief three-month period. It’s like an isolated day of thundershowers in the midst of a three-year drought — any public official who went around saying “We now have our best water situation in 20 years” would be strung up.
The economy over the Bush term has been clearly poor. The recent (undeniable) job gains held promise of at least reversing the public verdict on current conditions. But now signs are suggesting that what recovery there was is about done: the job numbers took a sudden dip, GDP for even Q1 were revised down, all other reports suggest even weaker activity in Q2 and Q3…and the oil price situation grows ominously bad (the Yukos problem may push it into crisis). At best, the economy will be a semi-negative factor for Bush, since many never bought into the recovery idea to begin with (particularly in swing states). But much worse is possible: a near-downturn prior to the election, and (as I’ve heard predicted by reputable sources) a sharp market drop. If that should come about, Bush will long for the days when he could hope for 47-49% of the vote.
Ron,
I understand that there are senarios that don’t include winning Ohio or Florida. I’m not so confident about Arizona. And, Missouri will also be very tough.
A poll out last week in Nevada has Kerry up by 4 points. Plus, I’ll bet that New Hampshire goes for Kerry. Southern NH is the high growth area and is filled with Massachusetts Democrats moving over the boarder. He’s 2 points up in a poll from July 21.
Unfortunately, combined with Nevada that stills comes up 1 short. So, you’ll still need West Virginia or possibly Arkansas. But, let’s face it, if places like Nevada, NH, and W. Virginia fall to Kerry, then we’re talking decisve win, because that trend will pull, at the very least, Ohio and possibly Florida with it.
Bush has to be VERY concerned right now. There are no states that went for Gore in 2000 where he realistically has a chance. There are a number of states that went for Bush, where Kerry is either slightly ahead, or in a statistical tie.
Hold onto your hat for the October surprise. This group will not go down easy. They will beg, borrow, cheat and steal to stay in power.
“Well, the economy is the strongest in 20 years…”
If the Republican chowder heads want to run on that message in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, I think that’s just dandy.
(That “strongest economy in 20 years” talking point, BTW, applies to the GDP growth rate in exactly one one quarter – the third quarter of last year. And, of course, it doesn’t apply at all to employment and wage growth.)
But like I said, if that’s how the Bush-Cheney campaign wants to commit suicide, it’s fine with me.
Good point, Ron. I’m actually feeling very optimistic about our chances of taking Arizona, more so than Missouri this time.
“Well, the economy is the strongest in 20 years…”
Keep whistling. You must have missed the announcement this week of the return of record budget deficits, the looming spikes in oil prices, and “unexpectedly” more billions to feed the Iraq war. There is little confidence in the fundamentals by investors (who don’t just listen to Greenspan) right now, despite record valuations.
Keith,
I don’t think we’re necessarily screwed if we lose Ohio and Florida. I think Kerry will win both, but if he carries all of Gore’s states, he only needs 10 additional electoral votes, and he could get those in Missouri, or Arizona, or by winning West Virginia and Nevada.
as a side note, here’s a link that ought to settle the debate re kerry’s anticipated convention bounce:
http://salon.com/politics/war_room/archive.html?wire=D843KIN80.html
despite ed gillespie’s purposefully wrong take on the size of convention bounces historically enjoyed by candidates (he says 15 points), the truth is
“[t]he average bounce for a convention like the current Democratic convention is 5 to 7 percentage points, said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.”
now, why has the 5-7 points number been so hard to verify? I know what gillespie’s motives are but why can’t the major media outlets simply use past poll data to debunk GOP claims ?
the answer for me is incredibly lazy journalists who are quite content to mechanically structure articles around point/counterpoint, instead of doing a little background work to verify the factual allegations they so blindly print. I guess it’s easier to parrot GOP talking points than take the few minutes to run a NEXIS search or call a polling organization to get a definitive answer.
really, in the information age, not bothering to verify your source’s statements is unforgivable.
Well, the economy is the strongest in 20 years and Greenspan is already tapping on the brakes. It makes sense that folks would give Bush a good mark on the economy. It’s done really well rebounding from the 2000-2001 recession.
Polls, polls, polls… I study them till my head spins. Am I wrong in sensing that this whole race will be decided by two states.. Ohio and Florida. If Kerry wins one of them, game is over. If he loses both, four more long years!!
Net-net (if you can excuse the expression), the polls show K/E about two points ahead, and leading in the electoral college. That is, if there are ten polls in any given two week period, and eight of them show K/E ahead, that ought to be a pretty good measurement. Obviously, any one poll has a much larger margin of error.
Remember the under-measurement of Reagan votes in 1980. And given the enthusiasm this year, I’m hoping for a good, un-measured, turnout effect.
I agree that it’s got to be a party ID thing with the Post poll. It just just such an outlier in so many ways that it’s not a reasonable poll. The deltas, even with it’s own poll the previous month, is just too severe for any reasonable explanation. 10 point shifts are all over the place when not that much happened in the last month to favor bush. Also, the Post polls have always given bush much larger job approval ratings than other polls. It’s been the Post polls with the Fox ‘polls’ that are way outside the norm. I’m not sure what the Post is doing (I know what Fox is doing!), but they have consistenly produced out of the mainstream poll numbers. These latest are just another example.
I think the Post/ABC poll is having some problems with sample quality – first there was the huge swing towards Kerry on the terrorism issue back in June (which the Post played up a big story) then the big swing back towards Bush in the two July polls. I don’t think anybody really believes that Kerry closed to even with Bush on the GOP signature issue – and certainly none of the other polls ever showed it.
Something else I noticed (somewhere) about the Post/ABC poll was that their latest sample was 33% Republican, which seemed awfully high to me. I don’t think Post/ABC controls for party identification, so what we’re seeing may just be some random noise – or an exaggeration of a real trend, which the Gallup poll would seem to suggest.
Given the incredible partisan polarization on just about every issue, it seems logical to me that even a minor shift in party ID within the samples could have a big impact on the results.
Of course, controlling for party ID has its own problems – what’s the “right” split? And I’m not going to argue that it’s the better way to do things. But the media, as usual, is doing an awful job of explaining the limitations of polling, and the fact that many of the “trends” that people think they see in the numbers are in fact just noise.
You could make a case that the concentration on first the Edwards selection, then the 9/11 Commission, and now the convention has been marginally beneficial for Bush, as it has kept the chief source of his weakness — Iraq — from holding the center ring. It’s not like nothing’s going on over there: we’re still losing 1-2 military per day, with countless more wounded, but it’s not leading the evening news. Fiascos like today’s might reverse that, especially once we’re past the conventions. I also think (and have heard from sources) that the round number “1000 dead” will get alot of attention from the press. It’s only a number, but those things register (As analogy: Carter had the horrible break of the first anniversary of the hostage-taking occurring right before Election Day 1980. It amounted to a media-sponsored tough negative ad right before voting).
68 people blew up today in Iraq. Yeah, no drama there.
Bush isn’t quite as vulnerable as he once was, now that there isn’t as much drama going on in Iraq. As for people talking about Kerry not re-defining himself, I don’t see why not. Gore wasn’t defining himself in the 2000 convention we he said “I want to show you who I truly am”–he was redefining himself, after everyone saying he was a dull robot. Kerry could actually give a speech as good as Edwards, provided that Edwards wrote it for him.
One or the other is outside the 95% confidence band
Here’s a data point for you: watching the network news, all that my wife heard about the convention was that Teresa Kerry-Heinz told a reporter to “shove it”.
Great coverage, eh?
Are you implying something? Do you think these results are not honest somehow, or simply that
this must be an outlier poll?
MSNBC reported the WAPO poll results because it builds viewer interest based on tension, because it is seen by conservatives as a liberal cable outlet and must therefore throw them bones and because MSNBC is tied in with Newsweek, which is also tied in with WAPO.
and why did msnbc decide to run with the poll showing kerry behind at the start of the DNC…not only did they hype the wapo poll on their site as the main headline but they wouldn’t shutup about it on TV either