Amidst all the talk about the impact of a likely reversal of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority, I thought a history lesson was in order, so I wrote one at New York:
Last week, the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have codified abortion rights, died in in the Senate by a vote of 51 to 49. All 210 House Republicans and all 50 Senate Republicans voted against the legislation. This surprised no one, but it’s actually odd in several ways. While Republican elected officials are almost monolithically opposed to abortion rights, pro-choice Republican voters didn’t entirely cease to exist, and this could become a problem for the party if, as expected, the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down the right to abortion at the end of this term.
Though polling on the issue is notoriously slippery, our best guess is that a little over a third of Republicans disagree with their party on whether to outlaw abortion (while about one-quarter of Democrats disagree with their party on the topic). These Americans have virtually no representation in Congress with the limited exceptions of Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski (both GOP senators support some abortion rights, but they are still opposed the WHPA and are against dropping the filibuster to preserve abortion rights).
Ironically, abortion rights as we know them are, to a considerable extent, the product of Republican lawmaking at every level of government. The most obvious examples are the two Supreme Court decisions that established and reaffirmed a constitutional right to abortion. Of the seven justices who supported
Roe v.
Wade, the 1973 decision that
struck down pre-viability-abortion bans, five were appointed by Republican presidents, including the author of the majority opinion, Harry Blackmun, and then–Chief Justice Warren Burger. All five justices who voted to confirm the constitutional right to pre-viability abortions in 1992’s
Planned Parenthood v. Casey were appointed by Republican presidents as well.
These pro-choice Republicans weren’t just rogue jurists (though their alleged perfidy has become a deep grievance in the anti-abortion movement). Today’s lock-step opposition to abortion rights among GOP elected officials took a long time to develop. Indeed, before Roe, Republicans were more likely to favor legal abortion than Democrats. In New York and Washington, two of the four states that fully legalized pre-viability abortions in 1970, Republican governors Nelson Rockefeller and Daniel Evans were at the forefront of abortion-rights efforts. They weren’t fringe figures; Rockefeller went on to become vice-president of the United States under Gerald Ford. Pre-Roe, various other Republican officials supported more modest efforts to ease abortion bans; among them was then–California governor Ronald Reagan, who signed a bill significantly liberalizing exceptions to an abortion ban in 1967.
The anti-abortion movement’s strength in the Republican Party grew steadily after Roe in part because of a more general ideological sorting out of the two major parties as liberals drifted into the Democratic Party and conservatives were drawn into the GOP. To put it another way, there has always been ideological polarization in American politics, but only in recent decades has it been reflected in parallel party polarization. But that doesn’t fully explain the GOP’s shift on abortion policy.
Beginning in 1972 with Richard Nixon’s reelection campaign, Republicans began actively trying to recruit historically Democratic Roman Catholic voters. Soon thereafter, they started working to mobilize conservative Evangelical voters. This effort coincided with the Evangelicals’ conversion into strident abortion opponents, though they were generally in favor of the modest liberalization of abortion laws until the late 1970s. All these trends culminated in the adoption of a militantly anti-abortion platform plank in the 1980 Republican National Convention that nominated Reagan for president. The Gipper said he regretted his earlier openness to relaxed abortion laws. Reagan’s strongest intraparty rival was George H.W. Bush, the scion of a family with a powerful multigenerational connection to Planned Parenthood. He found it expedient to renounce any support for abortion rights before launching his campaign.
Still, there remained a significant pro-choice faction among Republican elected officials until quite recently. In 1992, the year Republican Supreme Court appointees saved abortion rights in Casey, there was a healthy number of pro-choice Republicans serving in the Senate: Ted Stevens of Alaska, John Seymour of California, Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas, William Cohen of Maine, Bob Packwood of Oregon, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, John Chafee of Rhode Island, Jim Jeffords of Vermont, John Warner of Virginia, and Alan Simpson and Malcolm Wallop of Wyoming. Another, John Heinz of Pennsylvania, had recently died.
Partisan polarization on abortion (which, of course, was taking place among Democrats as well) has been slow but steady, as Aaron Blake of the Washington Post recently observed:
“In a 1997 study, Carnegie Mellon University professor Greg D. Adams sought to track abortion votes in Congress over time. His finding: In the Senate, there was almost no daylight between the two parties in 1973, with both parties voting for ‘pro-choice’ positions about 40 percent of the time.
“But that quickly changed.
“There was more of a difference in the House in 1973, with Republicans significantly more opposed to abortion rights than both House Democrats and senators of both parties. But there, too, the gap soon widened.
“Including votes in both chambers, Adams found that a 22 percentage- point gap between the two parties’ votes in 1973 expanded to nearly 65 points two decades later, after Casey was decided.”
By 2018, every pro-choice House Republican had been defeated or had retired. The rigidity of the party line on abortion was perhaps best reflected in late 2019, when a House Democrat with a record of strong support for abortion rights, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, switched parties. Almost instantly, Van Drew switched sides on reproductive rights and was hailed by the hard-core anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List for voting “consistently to defend the lives of the unborn and infants.”
With the 2020 primary loss by Illinois Democratic representative Dan Lipinski, a staunch opponent of abortion rights, there’s now just one House member whose abortion stance is out of step with his party: Texas Democrat Henry Cuellar, who is very vulnerable to defeat in a May 24 runoff.
If the Supreme Court does fully reverse Roe in the coming weeks, making abortion a more highly salient 2022 campaign issue, the one-third of pro-choice Republican voters may take issue with their lack of congressional representation. Will the first big threat to abortion rights in nearly a half-century make them change their priorities? Or will they still care more about party loyalty and issues like inflation? Perhaps nothing will change for most of these voters. But in close races, the abandoned tradition of pro-choice Republicanism could make a comeback to the detriment of the GOP’s ambitious plans for major midterm gains.
In response to Alleykat’s question about how much of a bounce Bush will get from Reagan’s death, I don’t know. I suspect that to an even greater degree than they would have anyway they will try to wrap Bush in Reagan’s flag at their convention. I suspect the swing voters are likely to take a detached view towards the ongoing hagiography.
Will we see the following exchange in one of the fall’s Kerry/Bush debates?
Bush: President Ronald Reagan, the greatest American President in American history, understood that we Americans need to stand tall against those who would do us harm as Americans. If we Americans stay the course like Ronald Reagan did, we Americans will prevail.
Kerry: Well, to borrow from the words of another great American, let me tell you something, George. I knew Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was an acquaintance of mine. And let me tell you, George, you’re no Ronald Reagan.
Dear AlleyKat,
Nice of James to try to involve you in his fight, eh? I guess you can tell, he’s a really special guy.
I certainly have no problem with the question you raise. And I think Bush may get some benefit from Reagan’s passing, by reminding some voters of what they liked about Reagan, and also because Bush’s miserable failings will be out of the news for a few days.
On the other hand, it steps on whatever positive coverage Bush may have gotten from D-Day and the international get-togethers this month. The White House hoped that June would be a good month for them because the President would look presidential. Perhaps it will also be occasion to reflect on how conservatism has fallen, from the Great Communicator Reagan to the Incoherent Mumbler Bush.
James, I knew it was you from your first comment. Your writing style and defeatist attitude stood out like a naked man in church. No one has to stalk you to notice those things.
Anyway, I believe that Bush will see a small rise in polls, because of seemingly good economic news and progress in Iraq (new government). However, I don’t think Bush is coasting to easy victory. He is not liked amongst swing voters and independents, and he is weak in several upper southern states. With as many states as tied as they are now (OR, NV, AZ, NM, MO, MN, IA, MI, OH, WV, PA, VA, NC, FL, AR), and Bush’s fortune tied to the force of history, no one can predict this election. So, we wil see an interchange of leads inside the MOE of polls for the next few months.
Oh and Alley, unless you want Ron to stalk you as well and follow you around making things up for his personal gain, you’d better not speculate on Bush’s poll numbers.
By the way, Hank, Ron, which of you is pretending to be this “soup” person? Why are you too cowardly to admit that’s who you are? It’s very suspicious.
Oh there’s my stalker, Ron. How are you? People are one to what exactly? If I’d been trying to hide, why would I have used my name from Kos? Come up with something new, please, because no one is buying it. I don’t know why you’re so obsessed with me.
Hank, the Eeyore comment is generic and forgettable. I guess that is your strong suit?
Roy, did you check long enough to see that the comment which sap posted here was from weeks ago, and had nothing to do with this thread? Please go back and realize that. Don’t let stalkers like Ron or sap lie to you.
Kinda morbid, I know but…
What kind of bounce will Bush get from Reagan’s death? Will it be long-lived?
“All the others have Bush in the lead?” James, the last 4 other polls listed at http://www.pollingreport.com have a tie or a Kerry lead. I would like to think that your statement is merely an error, but I suspect that you do follow politics to some degree, and are thus lying.
People are on to you, James.
Is James none other than James B3, the Eeyore of Daily Kos?
This is only one poll; all the others have Bush in the lead. Given the public’s strong sympathy towards Rumsfeld (70% want him to stay), and the media’s success at lying to people about the economy and blaming the prison abuses all on this England girl, I think that you will see Bush’s support go way up again in the next few months.
Posted by James at May 7, 2004 09:48 PM
One question James. Are you a tool or a fool?
Clark was a very bad campaigner (and had even more confusing positions on abortion than Kerry), and also has a very confusing and muddled Iraq war position. He doesn’t add much to the ticket. He’s definitely no McCain.
Carla, Bush is the media’s god and it’s amazing he’s even behind in polls at this point. I don’t think anything Kerry can do will stop Bush from rebounding in polls. As JC said, it’s all about lowered expectations. The media are bound and determined to make Bush beloved again.
1. Why are these job numbers big news? The numbers are not that great. They “appear” good only when compared with more job losses.
More lowered expectations for Bush.
2. Speaking of numbers, notice that the war dead number had dropped from near 800 to 600. I guess the families of the other 200 don’t matter since the soldiers were apparently not Killed In Action, but nonetheless part of the Iraq invasion/mess.
3. The differing comments above on W. Clark are right. Has lots of positives, and one can only hope he is able to be a better campaigner. He did seem to get much better as the campaign went along. And he seems to deliver on the same points as McCain, without being a fairly conservative GOP, as is the case with McCain.
I think for Kerry to “convey to…voters that he has a plan for successfully concluding the Iraq war and getting those troops back home” would be not bold but craven.
It would–and IMO should–do more to lend credence to the charge he is a poll driven flip flopper with no moral compass than anything he has done in his Senate career and this campaign.
Like many I would prefer a more dynamic Kerry than we’ve seen and that we probably ever will get and have certainly said as much in posts during the primary season. But I respect his integrity. Heck, what do I know–I’ve never even met him. But my gut tells me that Kerry is actually dealing with the issue straightforwardly, responsibly, and from his heart. That’s the person I trust. And that’s the person I want in the Oval Office.
I believe he’s doing just fine on Iraq during this general election campaign, lighting into Bush occasionally for his conduct of the war but not so often and not so caustically as to generate a backlash against himself, offering specific constructive suggestions from time to time, and not allowing himself to be tempted to offer an easy answer on this issue that just doesn’t exist–no matter how much the American public craves one.
FWIW I was against the war and was somewhat disappointed with Kerry’s stance on it prior to the war, although I suspected that a Dem who voted for the resolution would probably be in a better position to win the election than one who opposed it. But we’re there now and I think he’s doing as well as possible with this matter, horrible mess that it is.
So: well-timed boldness? Sure. Yes. But I hope not on this issue, not now anyway.
Kerry does need to connect with swing voters in swing states. However, I question whether he has to do it with some bold plans, foreign or domestic.
As swing voters conclude that they really don’t like George Bush, what will make them decide they they want to vote for John Kerry? I think the answer may lie in some kind of emotional response to a Kerry speech or gesture; or, to the way he handles himself in one or all of the Presidential debates.
Closing the sale for Kerry doesn’t necessarily mean he has to unveil some kind of jim dandy plan for the economy or even Iraq (although that wouldn’t hurt).
To make that emotional connection, a candidate has to be a bit of an actor. Reagan was and so were Clinton and (yes) Bush II. The ability to project emotion to the voters is critical to human connection. Without it the candidate is a disembodied voice that doesn’t hold the attention of the people who want to believe in you.
Remember Mike Dukakis and his failure to show any emotion in response to the CNN anchor’s surprise, hypothetical question on what he would do if his wife were raped and murdered? Dukakis’ lack of emotional intelligence in his response was a turn off to people who don’t think day in and day out about death penalty policy.
Voters want to know whether the candidate has any human juices. Constant focus on issues and public policy to the exclusion of how the candidate reacts viscerally will not close the sale. Exposing one’s humanity will, however, go a long way in getting the voters to make the right decision.
Bush is running ads touting the new job numbers. He will very very soon rebound in polls. The media will make sure this happen, they worship him.
Graham is not going to help. Biden is a misfire. Clark was a terrible campaigner. He needs Edwards. Edwards may be the only thing that will help stop a huge Bush comeback.
And, if Kerry wants to take on Iraq, all he has to do is get a VP who’s handled foreign policy – namely Clark, Graham or Biden.
Clark’s my first choice – he’s honest, is a true patriot and will appeal to swing voters since he was one during the earlier parts of his military career.
I think Clark has given the best answers to solving the problems over there, while still emphasising that a good foreign policy will help our domestic problems at home.
I’m in a Southern swing state (take your pick, there’s only four! LOL!) and I believe Wes could help Kerry pick all four of those up, as well as Ohio and New Mexico.
Graham and Biden also have fantastic FP creds.
Kerry consistantly polls better than Bush on domestic issues, but falls woefully below him – as much as 10 points even after the prison scandal and the 9/11 Commission hearings! It would behoove him to think about his VP selection as more a referenedum on FP than on any particular section of the country.
Uhhh… creating a million new McJobs isn’t going to endear people to the Bush economy.
I make a little more than minimum wage with a college education and it sucks. All the good-paying jobs that went overseas aren’t being replaced by other good-paying jobs, and that’s the rub.
It’s not just unemployment – it’s UNDERemployment.
Ruy, let me just point out that there is no successful way to conclude the Iraq debacle.
Mencken hits the nail on the head, IMO.
The country is craving honest leadership with someone who’s going to lead them in the right direction.
If Kerry is willing to stand up and light the way…people will follow in droves. IMO he needs to do that pretty soon…latest polling looks mediocre.
I’m not sure there’s any such thing as “safe boldness.” but still, I agree that kerry should tread lightly w/ Iraq.
the bigger point, I think, is ruy’s. americans are hungry for a candidate who will inspire them. not with a steady diet of flag-waving, chest-thumping jingoism, but by reinvigorating our sense of national purpose—that this nation is a model of justice and equity. which it definitely hasn’t been of late.
and while I’m not a big kerry fan, kerry, to his credit, is inching toward that. I too am worried that he won’t move quickly or decisively enough. already the queries of “can kerry connect?” are being revived in the press.
I never thought kerry was a flip-flopper, just too calculating. maybe that’s just part of who he is. and maybe those are the right qualities for a successful president. but such caution may well be antithetical to a winning campaign.
the next 2 months should be interesting.
Boldness is well and good and could help Kerry begin to shed his Bush/Cheney-reinforced image as an “equivocator.” However . . . I’m not sure that Iraq is the issue on which he should flex his boldness bona fides. It is, potentially, an enormous trap for him; you can be sure that the Bush people are just waiting for him to say something about it that can be turned around into a “weak on national security and terrorism” smear — preferably a sound bite suitable for a 30-second ad. On the other hand, there’s a lot of room for relatively safe boldness on the economy, jobs, economic inequality, health care, and the need for better homeland security. So far, Kerry has worked these areas to his advantage, while remaining cautious on the ever-shifting Iraq issue. There may well be room to take bolder, more imaginative positions on the former set of concerns, but he’s probably wise not to put his hands too firmly on the Iraq tar baby.
I don’t agree. Studies show people make up their minds on the economy six months before the election. So it’s probably too late. Also, two months of wage growth after three-plus years in office isn’t going to sway too many people.
Based on the new jobs numbers, that’s going to start swinging the other way ina bout 3 months or so, not only did they add 1 million jobs in 3 months, but wage grow went up for 2nd straight month.