A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
I predict that if the American’s pull out, the Bush Administration will be charged with the greatest flip flop since “Read my lips.”
Why did so many Americans die? Why did we spend so much money? First, it was because of terrorism. No terrorists. Then, it was about WMDs. No WMDs. Now, it’s about “liberating” Iraqi’s and protecting the rest of the region from “irrational” Saddam Hussein. Well, Saddam may be gone. But what good would the war have done if Iraq decends into chaos and another dictator takes over. Or worse, civil war envelops the country.
Bush will face a revolt by his neocon base. It will be the total repudiation of his own doctrine (The National Security Strategy, Bush Doctrine) and their philosophy.
> There is NO plan to remove the troops. They are
> building permanent bases in Iraq. No matter
> what people think the plan is for us to be there
> till the end of time.
That is undoubtedly what the Neocons are hoping, but what happens if the Iraqi government doesn’t want it? As this WaPo article explains [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34643-2004May17.html ] ordinary Iraqis are increasingly turning against the U.S. “liberators” simply because there is a general perception the Americans are unable or unwilling to make the country a safe place. This apparently goes for Iraqi government officials too, who will be assassinated if they are seen as collaborating with the Americans. So it is by no means a given the Iraqis will ask the U.S. military to stay since they supposedly fear a “civil war” would erupt. Let’s face reality: the country is almost there already and it’s clear a very significant, violent minority will continue the uprising as long as the “crusaders” remain in the country.
Interestingly, it seems the Bushies may in fact be planning to pull out after all! If the Iraqi government asks the Americans to leave, wouldn’t it be a golden opportunity for the Administration to cut its political losses while declaring “victory” in this battle in the war on terror?
MARCU$
Bush I and Bush II both seem to be proving Lincoln’s aphorism about fooling people. They used war to fool “all” of the people but it’s only worked some of the time.
There is NO plan to remove the troops. They are building permanent bases in Iraq. No matter what people think the plan is for us to be there till the end of time. Which may come sooner than we expect with this bunch running things.
I’ve got a real problem with the irresponsible Left that seems to assume that one can just remove the troops from Iraq and wave bye bye. There is something called “collective responsibility” even if you were a hard anti-war protester pre-Iraq 2003, and I simply don’t think that has sunk in to some proponents of just bring the troops home. Sadly, you cannot run the invasion backwards and depart.
What Kerry perhaps promises is a clean slate in dealing with potential allies. Bush is so profoundly unpopular abroad he has no hope of attracting any sort of meaningful help — but Kerry at least offers that possibility. To win Kerry is going to have to speak two languages — the one of Intnernationalization, cooperation, careful listening to the views of others, but at the same time he cannot forsake a strong identification with American Interests and all the rest of the “realist” language. It is a difficult order, and in many ways it depends on Bush proving himself most lnnept as a diplomat, as incapable of conducting advantageous foreign relations — and Kerry seeming to be very comfortable in that role, but at the same time retaining an authentic American character around himself.
I still think Kucinich offered a complete reversal of Bush’s policies. I wonder if he could really make his ideas a reality.
Kerry doesn’t seem to be different enough. He seems to be shrinking away from anything that may have made him more receptive to the progressive community.
Isn’t it only a matter of time before Bush’s numbers hit the 30s? Then he will be totally at par with Carter in 1980. How did that election turn out?
I think that 40% threshold will sink Bush. Politics is about perception. There are still people in disbelief about his not “being popular.” The GOP expected to campaign on his popularity. Now they have nothing. If he falls into the 30s, the realization will come about that he is not only “not popular,” but is actually “unpopular” (there is a difference). They will start seeing Bush as a liability.
Still want to know what a strategy would be if Bush DOES manage to run.
Please explain :/ re: lots of foreign ministers saying they will pull out if asked “(by who?) but…
TROOPS ARE NOT COMING HOME AFTER JUNE 30!!! I wonder just how many Americans are under the false impression that the “handover of sovereignty (to whom nobody knows) means that the troops will come home. If anything, troop numbers will be increasing over the next few months. If Americans are under the impression that we’re pulling troops out this summer, they’re going to be sorely disappointed and even angrier at Bush than they already are.
Kaus has been having much fun asking if it is too late for the Democrats to nominate someone other than Kerry. Maybe he should be asking if it is too late for the Republicans to nominate someone other than Bush?
I doubt many would compare Bush’s skill as equal to Lyndon Johnson’s (and I don’t want to get too hopeful), but it appears that this one is heading where the 1968 election was going until Johnson retired.
> But what do you think will happen when June 30
> comes and the US washes its hands of Iraq by
> means of the superficial handover of sovereignty?
Well, I think they need to pull the troops out of harm’s way as well and I don’t see that happening. As long as Americans are getting killed and as long as taxpayers (well, future generations of taxpayers — “read my lips: no new taxes!”) are being asked to foot the bill, I think Iraq will continue to be a liability. Besides, the dwindling but vocal neoconservative minority will scream like banshees if “Shrub” abandons the Great American Cause of creating democracy in Iraq. GOP voters and conservative pundits are grumbling a lot these days, but they still respect his “moral leadership” in the War on Terror. If “Shrub” starts backtracking on that crucial issue, what’s left?
I am much more worried about the economy: wouldn’t it be awful if the GNP and employment figures improved sufficiently for “Shrub” to squeak through in November? I hear the best guess is there won’t be a sufficiently long string of good news for “Shrub” to use it effectively in his campaign, but nor will Kerry be able to use the data to his advantage. So it’s most likely going to be a wash.
My greatest fear is Kerry will continue to stumble during and after the Demo convention when people finally start paying attention. That’s when succcesful challengers such as Clinton and Reagan took off. Will Kerry prove appealing enough? I think he likely will, if the U.S. is in the same funk as it was during Carter’s final months in office. But *if* the economy is doing acceptably and *if* Iraq/the Middle East is improving, I just don’t see how he can win even if he is running a much better campaign than he is doing right now…
MARCU$
I’ve been following the Zogby polls mainly because he was the most accurate during the last election. However, it’s become quite interesting to see all (or most) of the polls showing something that makes me want to read all of them. That being, GWB’s numbers tanking!!!!! Hopefully there isn’t time for him to recover. I certainly believe we haven’t seen the last of the other scandals (i.e. Plamegate, and 9/11 gate). There’s too much going on for this guy to survive all the negatives.
Hopefully, I haven’t jinxed this for Kerry by saying that.
Locally (Washington, DC) I listened to a political analyst on the way to work named Plotkin. He stated that traditionally people vote what they knew about the economy six months ago. I remember that from prior elections also. Other than voting machine fraud, I just don’t see how Bush can survive all the heat put on him to date and going forward.
Hey, and don’t forget that Bush’s big “Let’s go to Mars!” speech is coming up! That’ll screw him for sure. I can already hear the comments:
“So, Mr. President, do you believe that you will find the weapons of mass destruction there?”
I can’t wait.
If Bush does pull most of the troops out by July, and focus attention on the “economic recovery” and on the shameless 9/11 exploitation at the GOP convention, and on social issues, then these poll numbers don’t mean a lot. They can change at any time. The only thing that say is that Rove is having a harder time figuring out what to do. The bad news against Bush is now very diverse and hitting from him all sides (even the tobacco farmers are turning against him!).
Well, the current numbers certainly look good for Kerry when measured against past performances for incumbent presidents half a year before the election.
1964 JOHNSON-Goldwater: 59
1968 —
1972 NIXON-McGovern: 11
1976 Ford-CARTER: -6
1980 Carter-REAGAN: 8
1984 REAGAN-Mondale: 17
1988 —
1992 Bush-CLINTON: 6
1996 CLINTON-Dole: 14
2000 —
2004 Bush-Kerry: -6
Unfortunately, candidates have occasionally dug themselves out of deeper holes than this although no incumbent has ever managed the feat. In the spring of 1968, Nixon was trailing Hubert Humphrey by six points while the current moron’s father was fourteen points behind Dukakis in 1988. Let’s hope this election really *is* about the Administration’s track record rather than about Kerry.
—
BTW, how could Kerry neutralize the Nader problem? By offering him a job in the Kerry Administration in case he is elected? At least Ralph should stay away from battleground states and only appear on the ballot in safely “blue” or “red” states…
MARCU$
I wonder if Nader is drawing Republicans who can’t bear to support a Democrat — sort of a protest vote. His Reform Party endorsement probably helps that a little.
Of course when election day rolls around, I doubt they’ll be motivated enough to go out and pull a lever for Nader.
But what do you think will happen when June 30 comes and the US washes its hands of Iraq by means of the superficial handover of sovereignty?
Will the reporters go home? Will news reports on the debacle in Iraq dry up (like war reports in Afghanistan now)? Will that end the national attention on Iraq and cushion Bush’s fall?