Hard as it can be to define the best strategies for one’s party, it’s also imporant–and fun–to mock the other party’s strategic thinking. I had a chance to do that this week at New York:
Hanging over all the audacious steps taken so far this year by Donald Trump and his Republican Party has been the fact that voters will get a chance to respond in 2026. The midterm elections could deny the GOP its governing trifecta and thus many of its tools for imposing Trump’s will on the country. Indeed, one reason congressional Republicans ultimately united around Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill was the sense that they needed to get all the policy victories they could in one fell swoop before the tough uphill slog to a likely midterm defeat began. No one had to be reminded that midterm House losses by the president’s party are a rule with rare exceptions. With Republicans holding a bare two-seat majority (temporarily three due to vacancies created by deaths), the gavel of Speaker Mike Johnson must feel mighty slippery in his hands.
But if only to keep their own spirits high, and to encourage fundraising, Republican voices have been talking about how they might pull off a midterm miracle and hang on to the trifecta. A particularly high-profile example is from former RNC political director Curt Anderson, writing at the Washington Post. Anderson notes the unhappy precedents and professes to have a new idea in order to “defy history.” First, however, he builds a big straw man:
“[I]t’s always the same story. And the same conventional campaign wisdom prevails: Every candidate in the president’s party is encouraged by Washington pundits and campaign consultants to run away from the national narrative. They are urged to follow instead House Speaker Thomas P. ‘Tip’ O’Neill Jr.’s famous axiom that ‘all politics is local’ and to think small and focus on homegrown issues.”
Actually, nobody who was really paying attention has said that since ol’ Tip’s retirement and death. As Morris Fiorina of the Hoover Institution has explained, presidential and congressional electoral trends made a decisive turn toward convergence in 1994, mostly because the ideological sorting out of both parties was beginning to reduce reasons for ticket splitting. And so, returning to a pattern that was also common in the 19th century, 21st-century congressional elections typically follow national trends even in midterms with no presidential candidates offering “coattails.” So in making the following prescription, Anderson is pushing on a wide-open door:
“[T]o maintain or build on its current narrow margin in the House, the Republican Party will have to defy historical gravity.
“The way to do that is not to shun Trump and concentrate on bills passed and pork delivered to the locals, but to think counterintuitively. Republicans should nationalize the midterms and run as if they were a general election in a presidential year. They should run it back, attempting to make 2026 a repeat of 2024, with high turnout.”
Aside from the fact that they have no choice but to do exactly that (until the day he leaves the White House and perhaps beyond, no one and nothing will define the GOP other than Donald Trump), there are some significant obstacles to “rerunning” 2024 in 2026.
There’s a lazy tendency to treat variations in presidential and midterm turnout as attributable to the strength or weakness of presidential candidates. Thus we often hear that a sizable number of MAGA folk “won’t bother” to vote if their hero isn’t on the ballot. Truth is, there is always a falloff in midterm turnout, and it isn’t small. The 2018 midterms (during Trump’s first term) saw the highest turnout percentages (50.1 percent) since 1914. But that was still far below the 60.1 percent of eligible voters who turned out in 2016, much less the 66.4 percent who voted in 2020. Reminding voters of the identity of the president’s name and party ID isn’t necessary and won’t make much difference.
What Anderson seems focused on is the fact that in 2024, for the first time in living memory, it was the Republican ticket that benefited from participation by marginal voters. So it’s understandable he thinks the higher the turnout, the better the odds for the GOP in 2026; that may even be true, though a single election does not constitute a long-term trend, and there’s some evidence Trump is losing support from these same low-propensity voters at a pretty good clip. At any rate, the message Anderson urges on Republicans puts a good spin on a dubious proposition:
“The GOP should define the 2026 campaign as a great national battle between Trump’s bright America First future and its continuing promise of secure borders and prosperity, versus the left-wing radicalism — open borders and cancel culture or pro-Hamas protests and biological men competing in women’s sports — that Democrats still champion. Make it a referendum on the perceived new leaders of the Democratic Party, such as far-left Reps. Jasmine Crockett (Texas) or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York).”
Without admitting it, Anderson points to the single biggest problem for Republicans: They don’t have a Democratic incumbent president or a Democratic Congress to run against. Jasmine Crockett is not, in fact, running in Pennsylvania, where she is likely unknown, and even AOC is a distant figure in Arizona. Democrats aren’t going to be running on “open borders and cancel culture or pro-Hamas protests or biological men competing in women’s sports” at all. And Republicans aren’t going to be running on “Trump’s bright America First future” either; they’ll be running on the currently unpopular Trump megabill and on economic and global conditions as they exist in 2026. Democrats could benefit from a final surge of Trump fatigue in the electorate and will almost certainly do well with wrong-track voters (including the notoriously unhappy Gen-Z cohort) who will oppose any incumbent party.
Whatever happens, it won’t be a 2024 rerun, and the best bet is that the precedents will bear out and Republicans will lose the House. A relatively small group of competitive races may hold down Democratic gains a bit, but unless an unlikely massive wave of prosperity breaks out, Hakeem Jeffries is your next Speaker and Republicans can worry about what they’ll do when Trump is gone for good.
I predict that if the American’s pull out, the Bush Administration will be charged with the greatest flip flop since “Read my lips.”
Why did so many Americans die? Why did we spend so much money? First, it was because of terrorism. No terrorists. Then, it was about WMDs. No WMDs. Now, it’s about “liberating” Iraqi’s and protecting the rest of the region from “irrational” Saddam Hussein. Well, Saddam may be gone. But what good would the war have done if Iraq decends into chaos and another dictator takes over. Or worse, civil war envelops the country.
Bush will face a revolt by his neocon base. It will be the total repudiation of his own doctrine (The National Security Strategy, Bush Doctrine) and their philosophy.
> There is NO plan to remove the troops. They are
> building permanent bases in Iraq. No matter
> what people think the plan is for us to be there
> till the end of time.
That is undoubtedly what the Neocons are hoping, but what happens if the Iraqi government doesn’t want it? As this WaPo article explains [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34643-2004May17.html ] ordinary Iraqis are increasingly turning against the U.S. “liberators” simply because there is a general perception the Americans are unable or unwilling to make the country a safe place. This apparently goes for Iraqi government officials too, who will be assassinated if they are seen as collaborating with the Americans. So it is by no means a given the Iraqis will ask the U.S. military to stay since they supposedly fear a “civil war” would erupt. Let’s face reality: the country is almost there already and it’s clear a very significant, violent minority will continue the uprising as long as the “crusaders” remain in the country.
Interestingly, it seems the Bushies may in fact be planning to pull out after all! If the Iraqi government asks the Americans to leave, wouldn’t it be a golden opportunity for the Administration to cut its political losses while declaring “victory” in this battle in the war on terror?
MARCU$
Bush I and Bush II both seem to be proving Lincoln’s aphorism about fooling people. They used war to fool “all” of the people but it’s only worked some of the time.
There is NO plan to remove the troops. They are building permanent bases in Iraq. No matter what people think the plan is for us to be there till the end of time. Which may come sooner than we expect with this bunch running things.
I’ve got a real problem with the irresponsible Left that seems to assume that one can just remove the troops from Iraq and wave bye bye. There is something called “collective responsibility” even if you were a hard anti-war protester pre-Iraq 2003, and I simply don’t think that has sunk in to some proponents of just bring the troops home. Sadly, you cannot run the invasion backwards and depart.
What Kerry perhaps promises is a clean slate in dealing with potential allies. Bush is so profoundly unpopular abroad he has no hope of attracting any sort of meaningful help — but Kerry at least offers that possibility. To win Kerry is going to have to speak two languages — the one of Intnernationalization, cooperation, careful listening to the views of others, but at the same time he cannot forsake a strong identification with American Interests and all the rest of the “realist” language. It is a difficult order, and in many ways it depends on Bush proving himself most lnnept as a diplomat, as incapable of conducting advantageous foreign relations — and Kerry seeming to be very comfortable in that role, but at the same time retaining an authentic American character around himself.
I still think Kucinich offered a complete reversal of Bush’s policies. I wonder if he could really make his ideas a reality.
Kerry doesn’t seem to be different enough. He seems to be shrinking away from anything that may have made him more receptive to the progressive community.
Isn’t it only a matter of time before Bush’s numbers hit the 30s? Then he will be totally at par with Carter in 1980. How did that election turn out?
I think that 40% threshold will sink Bush. Politics is about perception. There are still people in disbelief about his not “being popular.” The GOP expected to campaign on his popularity. Now they have nothing. If he falls into the 30s, the realization will come about that he is not only “not popular,” but is actually “unpopular” (there is a difference). They will start seeing Bush as a liability.
Still want to know what a strategy would be if Bush DOES manage to run.
Please explain :/ re: lots of foreign ministers saying they will pull out if asked “(by who?) but…
TROOPS ARE NOT COMING HOME AFTER JUNE 30!!! I wonder just how many Americans are under the false impression that the “handover of sovereignty (to whom nobody knows) means that the troops will come home. If anything, troop numbers will be increasing over the next few months. If Americans are under the impression that we’re pulling troops out this summer, they’re going to be sorely disappointed and even angrier at Bush than they already are.
Kaus has been having much fun asking if it is too late for the Democrats to nominate someone other than Kerry. Maybe he should be asking if it is too late for the Republicans to nominate someone other than Bush?
I doubt many would compare Bush’s skill as equal to Lyndon Johnson’s (and I don’t want to get too hopeful), but it appears that this one is heading where the 1968 election was going until Johnson retired.
> But what do you think will happen when June 30
> comes and the US washes its hands of Iraq by
> means of the superficial handover of sovereignty?
Well, I think they need to pull the troops out of harm’s way as well and I don’t see that happening. As long as Americans are getting killed and as long as taxpayers (well, future generations of taxpayers — “read my lips: no new taxes!”) are being asked to foot the bill, I think Iraq will continue to be a liability. Besides, the dwindling but vocal neoconservative minority will scream like banshees if “Shrub” abandons the Great American Cause of creating democracy in Iraq. GOP voters and conservative pundits are grumbling a lot these days, but they still respect his “moral leadership” in the War on Terror. If “Shrub” starts backtracking on that crucial issue, what’s left?
I am much more worried about the economy: wouldn’t it be awful if the GNP and employment figures improved sufficiently for “Shrub” to squeak through in November? I hear the best guess is there won’t be a sufficiently long string of good news for “Shrub” to use it effectively in his campaign, but nor will Kerry be able to use the data to his advantage. So it’s most likely going to be a wash.
My greatest fear is Kerry will continue to stumble during and after the Demo convention when people finally start paying attention. That’s when succcesful challengers such as Clinton and Reagan took off. Will Kerry prove appealing enough? I think he likely will, if the U.S. is in the same funk as it was during Carter’s final months in office. But *if* the economy is doing acceptably and *if* Iraq/the Middle East is improving, I just don’t see how he can win even if he is running a much better campaign than he is doing right now…
MARCU$
I’ve been following the Zogby polls mainly because he was the most accurate during the last election. However, it’s become quite interesting to see all (or most) of the polls showing something that makes me want to read all of them. That being, GWB’s numbers tanking!!!!! Hopefully there isn’t time for him to recover. I certainly believe we haven’t seen the last of the other scandals (i.e. Plamegate, and 9/11 gate). There’s too much going on for this guy to survive all the negatives.
Hopefully, I haven’t jinxed this for Kerry by saying that.
Locally (Washington, DC) I listened to a political analyst on the way to work named Plotkin. He stated that traditionally people vote what they knew about the economy six months ago. I remember that from prior elections also. Other than voting machine fraud, I just don’t see how Bush can survive all the heat put on him to date and going forward.
Hey, and don’t forget that Bush’s big “Let’s go to Mars!” speech is coming up! That’ll screw him for sure. I can already hear the comments:
“So, Mr. President, do you believe that you will find the weapons of mass destruction there?”
I can’t wait.
If Bush does pull most of the troops out by July, and focus attention on the “economic recovery” and on the shameless 9/11 exploitation at the GOP convention, and on social issues, then these poll numbers don’t mean a lot. They can change at any time. The only thing that say is that Rove is having a harder time figuring out what to do. The bad news against Bush is now very diverse and hitting from him all sides (even the tobacco farmers are turning against him!).
Well, the current numbers certainly look good for Kerry when measured against past performances for incumbent presidents half a year before the election.
1964 JOHNSON-Goldwater: 59
1968 —
1972 NIXON-McGovern: 11
1976 Ford-CARTER: -6
1980 Carter-REAGAN: 8
1984 REAGAN-Mondale: 17
1988 —
1992 Bush-CLINTON: 6
1996 CLINTON-Dole: 14
2000 —
2004 Bush-Kerry: -6
Unfortunately, candidates have occasionally dug themselves out of deeper holes than this although no incumbent has ever managed the feat. In the spring of 1968, Nixon was trailing Hubert Humphrey by six points while the current moron’s father was fourteen points behind Dukakis in 1988. Let’s hope this election really *is* about the Administration’s track record rather than about Kerry.
—
BTW, how could Kerry neutralize the Nader problem? By offering him a job in the Kerry Administration in case he is elected? At least Ralph should stay away from battleground states and only appear on the ballot in safely “blue” or “red” states…
MARCU$
I wonder if Nader is drawing Republicans who can’t bear to support a Democrat — sort of a protest vote. His Reform Party endorsement probably helps that a little.
Of course when election day rolls around, I doubt they’ll be motivated enough to go out and pull a lever for Nader.
But what do you think will happen when June 30 comes and the US washes its hands of Iraq by means of the superficial handover of sovereignty?
Will the reporters go home? Will news reports on the debacle in Iraq dry up (like war reports in Afghanistan now)? Will that end the national attention on Iraq and cushion Bush’s fall?