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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority


New ARG Polls: Kerry Ahead in OR, WI, Lags in IA

Results of American Research Groups Polls of LV’s conducted 10/25-27:
Oregon – Kerry leads 50-46 percent
Wisconsin – Kerry ahead 48-47 percent
Iowa – Bush leads 48-47 percent

Quinnipiac Poll: Kerry, Bush tied Among FL RV’s

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 44 percent of Florida RV’s, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll conducted 10/22-26 .The Poll also found that, among the 16 percent of Flordians who have alread voted, Kerry leads by 56-39 percent.

WaPo/Univision/TRPI Poll: Kerry Ahead Nearly 2-1 Among Latino RV’s

John Kerry leads George Bush 59-30 percent of Latino RV’s in 11 states, according to a Univision/Washington Post/Thomas Rivera Policy Institute Poll conducted 10/4-16.
Note that Matthew Dowd, chief Bush campaign strategist, has said that Bush needs 38-40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004 to win. Looks like Bush isn’t going to make that target–or even come close.

New Polls Have Kerry Ahead in OH, PA, IA, Lagging in FL

New LA Times Polls, conducted 10/22-26 provide the following results for RV’s in 3 key states:
Florida – Bush leads 49-41 percent, 3 percent for Nader.
Ohio – Kerry ahead 49-45 percent in 2-way matchup.
Pennsylvania – Kerry up 48-45 percent head-to-head.
Kerry leads Bush among PA RV’s 49-46 percent in a Gallup Poll conducted 10/23-6.
Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Iowa RV’s in a Gallup Poll conducted 10/22-25.

Kerry Ahead by 1 in New Harris Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, with 1 percent for Nader, 1 percent other and 2 percent not sure, according to a Harris Poll conducted 10/21-25.
Note that, since Harris is using their more restrictive definition of likely voters in this poll (registered, absolutely certain to vote, voted in 2000 if old enough to vote), this result actually represents an 9 point swing in Kerry’s favor since their mid-October poll, when Kerry was behind 51-43 among this particular flavor of likely voters.

New Polls Show Kerry leads by 9% in NH, 2% in FL

John Kerry leads George Bush 50 to 41 percent of New Hampshire LV’s, according to a Center for Applied Public Opinion Research Poll conducted 10/18-21 for Franklin Pierce College. The poll scored Bush’s approval rating at 45 percent.
John Kerry leads George Bush 50-48 percent of Florida LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/22-24.

Race Close and Bush under 50 in Pair of NV Polls

Bush leads Kerry 47-43 percent of Nevada LV’s, according to a Sun Channel/KNPR Poll conducted 10/16-19.
Bush is ahead of Kerry 49-47 percent of Nevada LV’s, according to a Reno Gazette-Journal/News 4 Poll conducted 10/19-21.

Kerry Surges to Dead Heat in Arkansas

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of Arkansas LV’s, according to a new Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group Poll conducted 10/18-20. Kerry was down by 9 percent in the ANB poll taken two weeks ago.

Two New Polls Have Kerry Ahead by 1, Dead Heat in Florida

Kerry leads Bush by 1 point, 48-47, among Florida LVs according to a new Research 2000 poll, conducted October 18-21.
Kerry and Bush are tied at 46 percent of Florida LV’s, according to a new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times Poll conducted October 19-21.

Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry Ahead 2, Up 7 in Battleground

John Kerry Leads George Bush 49-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to a Democracy Corps Poll conducted 10/20-21. The Poll also found that Kerry leads Bush 52-45 percent of LV’s in Battleground states and has a 50-41 percent lead among Independent LV’s.