Precinct 19 is relatively large, and thus elects eight delegates to the county convention (the actual object of the Caucuses). According to my best informant, another seasoned Iowa pro, projected turnout tonight was 179–based on an assumption of a statewide turnout of 150,000–and the official count is 319! A women near me said it looked like at least three times the number of folks who were here in 2004, which was itself a high turnout Caucus.
According to the arcane rules of the Caucuses, 48 votes will be necessary to establish a candidate as “viable” in the precinct. Supporters of non-viable candidates will regroup with viable candidates in a second preference round.
An initial show of hands seems to indicate that Edwards is close to the viability threshold, with Obama and Clinton well above it and the others well below it. The precinct captain is now trying to figure out how to physically separate the preference groups for the official count. Usually there’s enough space to let them go to different corners of the room. Not tonight.
HRC’s supporters are filing past me, and appear to be 90% female.

Obama won big in the first round with 138. Clinton at 60 and Edwards at 57 met the viability standard. Richardson was at 30, Biden at 23, Kucinich at 4, Dodd at 3, and 4 uncommitted. The precinct will now have thirty minutes for the campaigns of the viable candidates to make their pitches to the supporters of those who didn’t make the cut.

I’ve arrived at the Democratic Caucus for Des Moines Precinct #19, at Monroe Elementary School, in the Beaverdale neighborhood of the city, with my friend Mike Klosterman, a registered voter here. The room is already overpacked, and an adjoining precinct meeting in the same school has 500 people still in line. Everyone seems to be blown away by the attendance.
By total coincidence, this precinct is being worked by Jackie Norris, Obama’s state director (along with her husband, John, who ran Kerry’s 2004 Caucus campaign). But there are plenty of Edwards and HRC staffers here as well.
They’re doing the preliminary announcements right now, but people are still outside the door signing in. It’s pretty cool.

I’m blogging from the Polk County Convention Center, where the Results/Media center for the Iowa Caucuses has been established, and am getting used to the pre-chaos. Upon arriving in Des Moines earlier today, there were few if any signs that the whole hep political world was focused on this cold and windy city–other than, of course, the Ron Paul billboards and yard signs that you see across the country in that campaign’s odd tribute to the politics of the pre-electronic age.
Lunching with friends at Palmer’s, a popular near-downtown deli, I saw not a single political bumper sticker in the vast and packed parking lot. But sure enough, a bunch of cameras soon entered, and there amongst us was Ron Paul himself, surrounded by an entourage that appeared largely pre-voting age.
Here at the PCCC, I’ve seen Biden and Richardson wander in, presumably to do interviews, but the crowds are mainly media types warming up for the big event in a few hours. I saw one foreign TV reporter announce that there was a sense of electricity here in the convention center, which gave me a good laugh since I was at that moment searching in vain for a power outlet for my PC.
The few non-campaign-worker Iowans I’ve talked to since arriving have generally suggested that among Democrats, Edwards and Obama have had the Big Mo of late. But the more animated talk was about the ulltra-saturation level of ads and especially calls from all the campaigns. Politically-involved Iowans often approach Caucus Night with a mixed sense of relief and sadness, recognizing that the massive attention the state’s been receiving is about to evaporate for a long time. Today there doesn’t seem to be much sadness that the Circus is about to strike its tents and leave town.
If turnout tonight doesn’t meet the very high expectations most observers have set, I suspect campaign overkill may be to blame.
The closest I’ve come to an inside tip so far was from a local pol who noted that Obama is going to be holding his Caucus Night party at the same Hyvee Hall digs where Howard Dean’s infamous “Scream” took place four years ago. The acoustics, she said, are so atrocious there that Obama might be vulnerable to the same kind of incident if he tries to get heard in the room.
I’ll probably check in next from an actual precinct Caucus, assuming my wireless card cooperates.

Well, after what seems to have been an interminable period of time, the appointed day is finally here, and at least some actual voters will begin to have a say about the 2008 presidential nominations. And according to most expectations, that say will be concluded within about a month (a month and two days, to be exact).
In Iowa today, the weather will be clear, windy, and reasonably mild by that state’s winter standards, with high temperatures reaching 30 degrees this afternoon as the campaigns go through their final paces. The actual Caucuses begin at 7:00 p.m. CST, and results should begin pouring in by 8:00.
I’ll have a later dispatch from Des Moines, but for now, suggest you read Chuck Todd’s summary of what the MSM is going to say tonight based on the most likely scenarios in both parties. The most intriguing issue may turn out to be how a “victory” is defined on the Democratic side, as opposed to a “tie.”

Pollster.com‘s Mark Blumenthal muses soberly, and at length on what the Iowa polls do and do not show.
The Wall St. Journal is getting a little nervous about the ‘populist’ tone of some of the candidates in Iowa.
WSJ’s Amy Chozick reports on the Dems’ surge in rural IA.
In addition to the DMR poll, Open Left‘s Chris Bowers sees increasing signs pointing toward an IA win for Obama
WaPo‘s Dan Balz says the Dems’ contest in IA is a battle over tone, as well as issues and direction.
John Zogby believes that there is a good chance of a three-way tie in the Dem caucuses.
The Politico‘s Roger Simon argues that media buzz may doom 3rd, or even 2nd place candidates.
ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper debunks the myth that IA Dems don’t vote for women.
Larry J. Sabato has a bit of a raspberry for the whole Iowa thing.

The AP‘s Ron Fournier has an enjoyable account of the latest act in the Mike Huckabee circus. Fournier, one of the few msm reporters who has not been snowed under by the Arkansas Governor’s much-noted wit, charm and bogus populism, nails Huckabee for a press conference he called to show reporters an ad he was withdrawing because it was too negative in attacking Romney.
Presumably, Iowans were supposed to respond, “Ah, how humble, how decent. But gee whiz, Huck’s ad had a point.” A dubious tactic at best. As Fournier says:

Iowans have a reputation for punishing politicians who go negative. The question is whether voters, particularly evangelicals who make up his political base, will believe Huckabee had the political equivalent of a deathbed conversion.
Or will they think he’s treating them like rubes — appealing to their sense of fair play while being foul?

Fournier wasn’t having any of it. Conceding that Huckabee is “an immensely talented communicator,” Fournier calls him a “flawed candidate,” “mistake-prone” and “thin-skined and rash.”
Towards the end of his article, Fournier notes something unique about Huckabee’s campaign:

He has a paltry political organization in a state that values the ground game, according to an informal survey of GOP county chairs and co-chairs. “I haven’t seen much of a sign of him or his people,” said Jim Conklin, chairman of the Linn County GOP.

What is interesting here is that Huckabee is leading in the latest polls and may just win the Iowa caucuses with a comparatively limp ground game, a highly counter-intuitive strategy. If he pulls it off, however, it doesn’t mean anybody can do it. As Ed noted in his 12/28 post “Somehow or other, Huckabee’s managed to come up with the jack for a respectable TV campaign of his own.” And not every candidate has Huckabee’s talent and grit for guerrilla politics. But if he wins, it will prove that Iowa can indeed be had without much of a ground game — at least on the Republican side.

The Des Moines Register poll of Democrats discussed in the staff post earlier today really just confirmed what’s been fairly obvious for a while: if the turnout is large and wide, Barack Obama will probably win. If it’s not, anything could happen. With time pretty much gone for any late trends (and the Register poll certainly confirmed my belief that the Bhutto assassination didn’t change anything), the shape of the playing field will likely determine the victor.
I know the numbers in the Register poll concerning participation by self-identified independents and first-time Caucus-goers are unprecedented, and therefore a bit hard to believe. But throughout 2007, all the signs pointed to exceptional interest in the Democratic as opposed to the Republican competition in Iowa. Given the state’s status as a purple state in general elections, a high turnout would be good news for Democrats regardless of the nominee.
In any event, all the speculation will soon be moot. I’ll be headed to Iowa soon to watch the Caucuses up close, and will make every effort to semi-live-blog from there on Caucus night.

The final Des Moines Register Poll Democratic results are great news for Barack Obama. The LV percentage results: Obama 32; Clinton 25; Edwards 24; Richardson 6; Biden 4; Dodd 2; Kucinich 1; Gravel less than 1. Part of the good news is that the final DMR poll before the Iowa caucuses has a perfect track record in ranking the order that candidates finished in the caucuses for both 2004 and 2000. In addition, Obama’s margin was double the m.o.e (3.5%) for the poll.
The cautionary note for Obama is that the percentage of first-time Iowa caucus-goers and self-identified Independents is much higher in the ’07 DMR sample. Historically, first-time caucus-goers have not shown up at the caucuses in impressive percentages. As Pollster.com‘s Mark Blumenthal puts it “this Register sample predicts a very different set of caucus participants than in years past” (As always, Blumenthal’s analysis is required reading for poll junkies.) The only thing to add is that there is a bit more of a lag between the final DMR poll and the caucuses this year than in ’04, when the poll was released the day before the caucus.