Bush leads Kerry 51-42 among nation-wide RV’s, with 2 percent for Nader, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos Poll conducted 9/20-22.

The indefatigable Alan Abramowitz offers the following comparison of the track records of Gallup and Democracy Corps in the last presidential campaign. The results may surprise you and have some important implications for assessing recent poll results.

What should we make of the huge discrepancy in the results of recent national polls? On the one hand, the prestigious Gallup Poll has George Bush leading John Kerry by 13 points among likely voters. On the other hand, a Democracy Corps Poll released just a few days later shows that the race is a dead heat. Who should voters believe? Most people probably assume that the Gallup Poll is a lot more credible than a poll conducted by a partisan polling organization. After all, Democracy Corps is headed by two well-known Democratic political operatives: James Carville and Stan Greenberg. But if that’s what you’re thinking, an examination of the track record of these two polling organizations during the 2000 presidential campaign might make you change your mind.
On October 25, less than two weeks before the 2000 presidential election, Democracy Corps released a national poll showing Al Gore leading George Bush by 2 points. On the same day, Gallup’s national tracking poll showed George Bush leading Al Gore by 7 points. One day later, the Gallup tracking poll had Bush up by an incredible (literally)
13 points. Score one for Democracy Corps.
Okay, you’re probably thinking, maybe Gallup just had a bad day (or two or three). But six days later, on October 31, Democracy Corps released it’s final pre-election poll showing a tie in the presidential race. Gallup’s tracking poll that day still had Bush leading by 5 points.
Make it Democracy Corps 2, Gallup 0.
In its final poll, Gallup did have Bush’s lead down to only 2 points–still not as good as Democracy Corps’ poll released almost a week earlier.
Now I’m sure that Gallup and its defenders in the polling business would argue that Democracy Corps was just lucky and that the Gallup Poll was actually more accurate all along because it was picking up real shifts in voter sentiment in the final two weeks of the campaign. Maybe Al Gore really did go from a 13 point deficit on October 26 to a small lead on Election Day, maybe there really is a 6 point Republican advantage in party identification among registered voters right now, as Gallup is currently telling us, maybe Iraq will hold free and fair elections next January, and maybe the tooth fairy will pay you a visit tonight, but I wouldn’t count on it. If I had to put down a bet right now on which poll will prove to be closer to the actual results of the 2004 presidential election, Gallup or Democracy Corps, I’d put my money on James Carville and Stan Greenberg.
Oh, and if you’re looking for a backup poll, I’d recommend Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. Their final pre-election poll in 2000, released five days before the election, also showed a dead heat. Their latest 2004 poll has Bush leading Kerry by 2 points, right in line with the new Democracy Corps poll. And I don’t think anyone would accuse Fox News of having a pro-Kerry bias.

Pretty darn interesting. And if reading this has put you in the mood for a little DCorps analysis, you really must check out their latest analysis of “The State of the 2004 Race“. Highly worthwhile.

Yesterday, I highlighted analyses by Phillip Klinkner and Anna Greenberg critquing recent data-challenged newspaper stories about “security moms” and the vanishing gender gap. Today, it’s Noam Schieber’s turn over at The New Republic in his amusingly-named “Mothers of Invention” article. Here’s a taste of what Noam has to say:

If you’ve been following the presidential campaign these last few weeks, you’ve probably heard a thing or two about security moms–the erstwhile soccer moms who became obsessed with terrorism after September 11, and, in the process, began tilting Republican. The typical “security mom” story–variations of which have appeared in The Washington Post (twice), The New York Times, the Chicago Tribune, and the Philadelphia Inquirer in recent weeks, as well as on CNN, ABC, and NPR–cites the hair-raising effect of the recent Russian school massacre. It mentions Laura Bush’s frequent pitches to women on security matters, and notes how the Republican Convention was awash in security talk. Often the stories are larded with a testimonial by a real-live security mom, invariably a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-death penalty former Gore supporter who’s convinced only George W. Bush can keep her children safe. All of them conclude that security moms could cost John Kerry the election.
Oh, and the stories usually have one other thing in common: They’re based on almost no empirical evidence.
…[I]t wasn’t until after this summer’s Republican convention that security moms became a bona fide growth industry. Suddenly, as The New York Times put it earlier this week, “an issue Mr. Bush had initially pitched as part of an overall message–which candidate would be best able to protect the United States from terrorists–has become particularly compelling for women.” Except that, well, it hasn’t–at least that part about “particularly compelling.” The problem with most of the reporting on security moms is that it fails to distinguish between Kerry’s support among women relative to men (i.e., the gender gap, which doesn’t tend to fluctuate much over short periods of time) and his absolute level of support among women (which fluctuates just like it does for anyone else). In fact, while Kerry has lost ground among women since August, he’s lost about the same amount of ground among men.

There’s lots more. By all means, check out the whole article.

Kerry leads Michigan LV’s by 4% in FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll (Sept. 21-22)
Kerry lags by 2% Nevada RV’s in CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (Sept. 18-21)
Bush leads by 3% Ohio LV’s in FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll (Sept. 21-22)
Kerry up 5% among Pennsylvania LV’s in FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll (Sept. 21-22)
Bush ahead by 10% West Virginia RV’s in CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (Sept. 17-20)
Bush up by 6% among Wisconsin RV’s in ABC News Poll (Sept. 16-19)

Bush leads Kerry 48-45 percent among Iowa LV’s, with 1 percent Nader and 6 percent unsure, according to a FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll conducted Sept. 21-22.
Bush leads Kerry 47-46 of Iowa LV’s, with 6 percent unsure, according to a poll by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV conducted Sept. 19-21.

Bush leads Kerry 48-47 percent of Florida RV’s, with neither/unsure 6 percent, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted Sept. 18-22.
Bush leads Kerry 48-43 percent of Florida RV’s, with 2 percent someone else, 1 percent wouldn’t vote and 6 percent unsure, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll conducted Sept. 18-21.

A series of polls of LV’s conducted September 19-22 by SurveyUSA show:
Kerry ahead by 10% in Michigan and 5% Washington State
Bush ahead by: 1% Maine; 4% Iowa; 13% Tennessee and 1% Oregon.

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 49 percent of nation-wide LV’s, with 1 percent other in a poll conducted Sept. 19-21 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps.

John Kerry leads George Bush 46-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s, with 1 percent for Nader in an Economist/YouGov Poll conducted Sept. 20-22.

Bush leads Kerry 48-45 percent among nation-wide RV’s, with 2 percent for Nader, 1 percent for none/other and 4 percent unsure, according to a Wall St. Journal/NBC News poll conducted Sept. 17-19.