John Kerry leads George Bush 48.3-46.7 among Florida LV’s, with 1.5 percent for Ralph Nader, according to a Florida Opinion Poll conducted 10/23-7 by New York Times Regional Newspapers. The poll also found that Kerry leads Bush among Florida Independents 48-40 percent.
TDS Strategy Memos
Latest Research from:
Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
-
August 23: A Succinct Take on Kamala Harris’s Focused Acceptance Speech
Like a lot of Democrats, I’m exhausted at the end of this exhilarating week, but did want to offer my insta-reaction to Kamala Harris’s big speech in Chicago that I wrote for New York:
Kamala Harris’s acceptance speech was relatively simple, almost stripped back, but laser-focused on a few objectives: introducing herself with autobiographical details that other speakers have been citing all week; defending herself forcefully against the attacks to come on her intelligence, strength and common-sense policy objectives; and making a clear and concise case against Donald Trump. She did not bother to defend the Biden administration’s record, and presented herself as focused on the future. It will not be easy for Republicans to depict this tough-sounding, highly articulate woman citing traditional American values and speaking to a crowd of flag-waving delegates as a “communist” or a “radical leftist” or unintelligent, as Trump has often done. And while she did not descend into wonkiness, she did describe enough of a policy agenda to create a real debate with Trump and his party.
As for her delivery, the contrast between Harris’s crisp, forceful, coherent and succinct presentation and Trump’s rambling screed in Milwaukee will be grist for the mill for some time. Indeed, this should make Democrats savor the upcoming debate, where there is every prospect for Harris to show up her opponent as the narcissistic would-be tyrant she spoke of in this speech. It was a fine start for the short sprint to November 5, and it showed she is not complacent but is determined to fight for swing voters while keeping her base excited.
Now on to the debate!
Now I assume that the “New York Times Regional Newspapers” poll is different than the much-discussed-earlier-this-week but never published CBS/NY Times poll. That number among independents is very, very encouraging and is in direct contrast to the findings of the LA Times poll (which, as Steve Soto of the Left Coaster demonstrated, “Galluped” its results — i.e. overweighted Republicans within its sample). Add to this the poll of Miami-Dade showing Kerry doing even better than Gore and things are looking very good down there.
I don’t know whether there has been much discussion of the nonsense from Fox News Opinion Dynamics this election season. But check out their latest poll for marginals by party ID. There is little difference in the loyalty of respective partisans for their candidate. Independents split 44-43 for Bush. And then they claim a 50-45 lead for Bush??
Hmm! These results could only have come from a LV sample which favored Republicans by 4%. Substitute the partisan breakdown of the 2000 Election (which may well be kind to the GOP) and you’ve got Kerry winning by 49-46.
Maybe we ought to say it this way: The Marginals of Fox News Opinion Dynamics shows Kerry with a 3 point lead!
As for Florida, it promises be Kerry by 1.5 points and possibly a bit more.